Minor gains for the VIX

With equities seeing a touch of weak chop in the closing hour, the VIX managed minor gains, settling +1.3% @ 11.78. Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain within the 12/10 zone into early September.


VIX'daily3

Summary

The broader downward trend is holding, but clearly, there is always going to be a threat of a 2-3 day jump.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) is turning upward, but it will likely take another 3 days or so to get a bullish cross, and even then, it could easily fail on the first attempt.

On any basis, VIX looks set to remain low for a few more weeks, not least if sp'2050 or even higher.
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed fractionally mixed, sp'500 u/c @ 2000. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued minor upside into the Friday/monthly close.


sp'60min

Summary

*price structure is a bull flag on the hourly cycle, and does bode for upside tomorrow morning.
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..and another very quiet day comes to a close.

Certainly, there were some interesting moves in a few stocks, but overall...it is a market devoid of any decent price action.

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*I hold long overnight, via a weak SDRL (already an annoying position, urghh)
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - melt into the close

Equities look set for micro melt into the close, after yet another quiet day. Metals/miners are flat. VIX will probably close fractionally lower (why wouldn't it?).. with the 10s as a viable weekly close.


sp'60min

Summary

*hourly bollinger bands are getting super tight.. 2003/1996. Usually suggestive of a break..one way or another. Considering the broader trends..the Thursday break would be to the upside.
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No reason to expect much price action in the closing hour for the main indexes.
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As for tomorrow, it will largely depend on how the market deals with the revised GDP for Q2. Even if the number if revised a little lower, with such low' volume...will anyone even notice?

Overall.. market looks set for minor upward chop into the Friday/monthly close.
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3.43pm.. price structure on the 15/60min cycles... a bull flag.

I realise some are still calling for the 1980s..before 2050... but still..we look likely to close the week in the 2010s..with 2025/30 next week.

2pm update - holding minor gains

US equity indexes are holding very minor gains, on what is yet another very quiet trading day. The NYSE Comp' is +0.1% in the 11030s. There looks to be viable upside to the 11300s in September.. which would equate to sp'2050 or so.


NYSE Comp' weekly2

Summary

Little to add...

The 'master index' is comfortably holding the 11000s again.. another 3% higher really isn't expecting too much within 2-3 weeks.
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time for a late lunch...
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*I've eyes on SDRL of course, a daily close in the low $37s would be somewhat useful to clarify a reversal.

1pm update - micro melt

US equity indexes are all fractionally higher, with the hourly cycles offering upside into early Thursday. A Friday close in the 2010s remains a very viable target.. which would really setup Sept' for the grander target of 2050..or so.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add.
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I really should go cook.. back at 2pm.
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*SDRL is continuing to battle upward from the morning low...a green close? Rest of the sector is strong..so.. that will help.

12pm update - churn is the best the bears can manage

Since the key low of sp'1904, in each of the natural down cycles, the best that the bears have managed is to churn the market sideways for a few hours. US equities look set to continue clawing higher into the weekly/monthly close.


sp'60min

Summary

There really isn't much to add. A few points down.. that appears all the bears can manage. No news is 'good news' right?

Rather the usual 2 steps up.. 1 down..its now a case of 1 up...sideways....then up again. It is all rather tiresome, and for now, essentially pointless for the bears to get involved.

The big issue is can the market hit the upper bol' in September, but that will likely be in the 2060/70s?
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As for SDRL, which naturally I'm long (did I manage to curse another stock, really?)

Its a battle... sigh.

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VIX update from Mr T.



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time for lunch, wine, valium... or something

11am update - due another up wave

The best the equity bears can seemingly manage was sp'1997... a fall of just -0.2%. Hourly cycles are offering another up wave into late Wed/early Thursday. The only issue is whether a revised GDP will be enough to shake a few of the bulls out, ahead of the long weekend.


sp'60min

Summary

Another day closer to the long weekend, and volume is no doubt ever lighter.

Upper bol on the hourly is 2007, so there is viable upside to new highs.

VIX remains stuck in the 11s.
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Notable weakness, GRMN, -3%,

SDRL -3%... although RIG is already back to positive +0.4%
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11.28am... for those watching... SDRL offering a spike floor this hour... above the opening low.

Regardless, its real annoying. The $38s look a fair way higher.

10am update - opening minor chop

US equities open with some minor mixed chop. The daily 10MA offers first key support, currently @ 1982 (will be 1995 by late Friday). Equity bulls still look set to claw higher into the 3 day weekend.


sp'daily5

Summary

Without getting lost in the minor noise, the broader trend remains powerfully to the upside. There is little reason why we'll even see a minor down wave this side of the holiday.
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*notable weakness: SDRL, -2.3%, post earnings.

Daily candle is offering a reversal.. but really.. it sure ain't pretty...

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Long...slow day ahead....

For those interested, Armstrong's latest post is interesting.see HERE

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open at 2002. With another $1bn of QE this morning, equity bulls look to continue clawing higher. Metals are a little higher, Gold +$4.


sp'daily5

Summary

So, we're set to open a little higher, and there is little reason why we won't break new highs on the sp' and Dow. Only issue is whether the Trans can follow.

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*notable early weakness, SDRL -4%.. post earnings. The recent low of $35.34 must hold, or it's a major fail.

Naturally, I'm long SDRL, and this is not exactly a great start to the day. I'd be surprised if SDRL can manage a flat close. Worse case..it loses the $35s later today..there is no support then until around $32.. which is another 10% lower.
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9.17am... still set to open a touch higher.. 2002.

I'm really not expecting today to be any different than the previous few days.

The only hope for the bears is Thursday GDP, which will probably be revised somewhat lower. Counter to that though, end month issues this Friday...and besides, monthly candles are now very bullish for September.

Still clawing to the upside

It was just another day of upside (if moderate) for the US equity markets. With a three day holiday weekend approaching, trading volume remains especially light, but then, that will merely favour the equity bulls.


sp'weekly8b

Summary

So.. with continued gains, we still have a second consecutive green candle on the weekly cycle. Upper bollinger is offering the 2020s in the immediate term, although that seems unlikely until after the 3 day weekend. By mid September, the weekly cycle will likely be offering the 2030/40s.


New high for the Dow

It was only late this evening (its hard to keep track of everything!) that I noticed the Dow had broken a new historic high of 17153. The monthly candle on the Dow is now also a clear bullish engulfing candle...

Despite a lot of bearish chatter out there, a bullish engulfing candle is something to be taken very seriously. Right now, we also have one for the Sp'500 and Nasdaq Comp'. Even the laggy R2K has climbed 4.9% this month, and is now just 4% shy of the July high (1213).

Equity bears need to go stare at the above chart for a good long while.. and ask themselves the question '....so...err....what is the primary trend right now?'.


Looking ahead

There is very little due tomorrow, just some bond auctions and the EIA oil report.

*there is QE of around $1bn, bears beware.
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A tentative long position

The indexes look over stretched right now, and I am certainly not in the mood to go directly long any of the indexes. However, the oil/gas driller stocks have started to show some initial upside power, and I decided to pick up a SDRL position this afternoon.

As usual, I try to 'clear the decks' into each weekend, and will look to drop SDRL this Friday, not least since its a 3 day holiday weekend.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes settled a little higher, sp +2pts @ 2000 (new historic high 2005). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4%  and +0.8% respectively. Near term outlook offers the 2010s into end week/month.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

There is very little to add.. on what was just another moderately bullish day in market land.

The price action in the R2K bodes well for the overall market, with the first daily close over 1170 since early July. Breaking the 1213 high will be tough though, and I don't expect it next month.
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a little more later...