Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes
sp'500
The sp' saw a trading range of just 24pts, settling +8pts (0.4%) at 2141. There is clear resistance around the soft psy' level of 2150, with a recent short term low of 2114. Ongoing price action remains leaning on the weaker side, and a break <2114 looks due.
Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked lower for a eleventh consecutive week. There is a viable 2-3 weeks lower, before cyclically, the market will be oversold.
Best guess: breaking <2114, with significant weakness into early November to the 2080/70 zone. No sustained action under the 200dma seems viable, with renewed strength once the US election is out of the way.
Equity bears should be careful about getting overly excited, unless a monthly close under the 10MA (currently 2080s). Only a few daily closes in the 2050s or lower would merit 'alarm bells', along with DXY >100.
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Nasdaq comp'
The Nasdaq continues to be the market leader, managing a net weekly gain of 0.8%, settling at 5257. Underlying MACD cycle is set to turn negative next week. First support is the giant psy' level of 5K. Things only turn bearish with sustained price action <5K in late November.
Dow
The mighty Dow was broadly flat on the week, settling @ 18145. Lower weekly bollinger is @ 17600, which is also where the 200dma is lurking. The 18k threshold remains a key level of support. Things only turn broadly bearish on a weekly close in the 17500s.
NYSE comp'
The master index settled +0.5% @ 10571. There is viable near term downside to the 10300s. Things only turn bearish with the 10100s.
R2K
The second market leader - R2K, settled +0.5% @ 1218, notably holding the 1200 threshold. Despite the weekly gain, near term outlook is bearish, with viable downside to the 1160/50s. Alarm bells only sound with price action <1140.
Trans
The 'old leader', remains the market laggard, and settled -0.2% @ 8026. Underlying MACD cycle remains net positive. Near term outlook offers cooling to the 7700/600s. Things only turn broadly bearish with some daily closes in the 7500s.
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Summary
5 of 6 US indexes saw moderate net weekly gains.
Most indexes continue to struggle since peaking in August - the exception being the Nasdaq (new high in mid Sept').
Price action remains choppy, but leaning weak.
The bigger weekly cycles are offering around 3% of downside into early November.
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Looking ahead
The coming week will see a monstrous amount of earnings, notably: CAT, AAPL (Tue), AMZN, GOOG, F (Thurs),and XOM (Fri).
M - PMI manu'
T - FHFA house price index, Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con', Rich' fed
W - intl' trade, PMI serv', new home sales, EIA report
T - weekly jobs, durable goods orders, pending home sales
F - GDP (Q3), employment costs, consumer sent'.
re: GDP, market consensus is for 2.5% growth. Considering other data points across July-Sept', that is arguably a little on the optimistic side. I'd not be surprised to see a first estimate near 2.0%. What should be clear, the US economy is not close to a recession, but neither it is doing great... its merely ticking along.
*there are a few fed officials due on Mon/Tues, but none of the events look important.
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Regardless... have a good weekend
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*the next post here will appear Monday @ 7pm EST
