Christmas Eve Wrap

US equity indexes closed Christmas week moderately mixed, sp -3pts @ 2060, whilst the two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled +0.1%. The VIX saw micro chop, settling +1.1% @ 15.74. Near term outlook is for the sp' to break above the FOMC high of 2076, and push into the 2100s.


sp'daily5

Trans, daily

VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add.

A naturally subdued end to the short Christmas trading week.

Some might look to the VIX daily candle as a spike floor/hammer, as indicative of a floor/turn, but I'm quite dismissive of it. Equity bears don't look to have any realistic chance of sustained downside until at least the latter half of January.

Goodnight from London

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -3pts @ 2060. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by 0.1%. Near term outlook remains bullish into January 2016. The only issue is whether the market can break new highs in some indexes.. and whether it can hold such gains.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: micro chop.. clearly leaning on the upside.. breaking a new cycle high of 2067.
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... and that concludes the Christmas trading week.

Certainly.. it was not particularly exciting, but then, there were some things worthy of attention.

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Meanwhile, the comedy continues from Mr Contrarian, aka, Gartman...

re:  WTIC Oil... '$34 is probably a low'.

Yeah... sure it is Mr G.   Sure it is... just like Gold will hold the recent low of $1045. lol
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*a daily wrap (VIX, indexes), will appear at 4pm EST.

12pm update - Santa's closing hour

US equities are set for further nano scale chop into the early 1pm close, but certainly... leaning on the upside. All equity indexes are set for very significant weekly gains of around 2.5-3.0%. Considering price structure across the last 8 weeks... a break to new historic highs (sp'2134) looks more likely than not.


sp'60min

sp'weekly1b

Summary

Not surprisingly.. price action remains very subdued, but with the daily/weekly cycles all pushing upward.. the underlying pressure remains to the upside.
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notable movers...

airlines, DAL +1.5%, UAL +3.2%
miners, GDX +2.1%, a Gold builds gains of $7
tech, QCOM, +1.3%.. although the stock remains broadly weak

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VIX update from Mr T ..  due

*seemingly a no-show... not that I can blame him.


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time for tea :)

11am update - Christmas Eve Sunshine

US equities remain in nano chop mode, a daily close in the sp'2060s looks probable. The market looks set to make an attempt to clear next resistance of 2075/80 next Mon/Tuesday. Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$5. Oil is seeing some swings.. currently battling to stay positive, +0.1%.


sp'60min

Summary

This remains no market to be short... even Oil looks set for further upside into January.

Clearly, there are huge underlying economic issues, and it remains particularly amusing to see some in the mainstream question whether the recent Fed rate rise was a critical error.

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morning reversal: DIS, daily

Still.. DIS remains a really damaged stock, as the market remains concerned about ESPN. For the moment, the fact Star Wars VII is set to be the biggest movie of all time, the market just doesn't seem to care.

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Here in London city...

Shoppers on the move

Blue skies.. green parks.

A very reasonable late afternoon in the metropolis, as a fair few million are completing their Christmas shopping (bullish V and MA). Whilst there was a bit of a wild rainstorm a few hours earlier, it remains an exceptionally mild winter.. and that will certainly cause problems for those retailers trying to offload winter clothing.

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back at 12pm.. for the closing hour

10am update - natural nano chop

US equities open naturally very subdued, a daily close in the sp'2060/65 zone looks probable. The window is open to next resistance of 2075/80, which will not likely hold. Metals are seeing a moderate bounce, Gold +$6. Oil is +0.5% in the $37s... headed for the $40 threshold.


sp'60min

sp'weekly1b

Summary

*note the hourly upper bollinger, certainly offers immediate upside to the 2075/80 zone.
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Clearly, we're set for nano scale price churn for the next few hours.

As things stand, all US equity indexes are set for very sig' net weekly gains.

*the 'santa rally', will officially start next Monday, and arguably lasts for the first few days of January.
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time for some sun......... back soon

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are a little lower, sp -3pts, we're set to open at 2061. A daily close in the 2065/60 zone looks probable, as price action is likely to be extremely subdued.


sp'60min

WTIC Oil, weekly2

Summary

*Oil is set for a sig' net weekly gain. First blue candle in a fair few weeks. First target is 40/42 zone. Any move >42.. bodes for much higher to the $50 threshold in the spring. Were that to occur, it'd massively help the broader market mood.
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Aside from the weekly jobs data, there really isn't a reason to expect anything of significance from today's half session.. as we close early at 1pm.

Certainly though... the recent underlying trend from the last few days - such as in energy, will likely continue.

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Update from Mr C.


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Overnight action...

Japan: -0.5% in the 18700s.. still struggling
China; -0.6% @ 3612... still below the monthly 10MA.

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yours.... always here... even on Christmas Eve.

The green December candle

Whilst US equity indexes closed broadly higher for the third consecutive day, the far more important issue is how price momentum on the giant monthly cycle continues to turn back toward the equity bulls. As things stand, the sp'500 is set for a third consecutive monthly close above the key 10MA (2054).


sp'monthly3b

Summary

The third consecutive green 'rainbow' (Elder Impulse) candle, unquestionably bullish, and we're trading a little above the 10MA.

Right now, a December close above the 10MA.. with a green candle looks extremely likely.
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Of course.. one index does not maketh a market...

Trans, monthly2

The 'old leader' remains a literal train wreck, which is all the more remarkable considering continuing low fuel/energy prices.


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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs data.

The US equity market will close early at 1pm EST.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed broadly higher for the third consecutive day, sp +25pts @ 2064. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 1.3% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish to the 2075/80 zone, with the 2100 threshold just about in range by year end.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

Suffice to add..  a rather bullish day, as it would seem the end year tax selling is essentially complete.

Whilst the sp'500 is leading the way higher, it is notable that the Transports has a very long way - some 9%, to make an attempt to re-take its 200dma.
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Update from Riley


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a little more later...