VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains very low, and if the equity indexes can push a further few percent higher, then VIX will remain at these levels for another few weeks.
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more later...on the indexes
Monday, 12 May 2014
Volatility knocked into the 11s
With the Dow and Transports breaking new historic highs, the VIX was crushed further, hitting an intraday low of 11.88, but settling -5.3% @ 12.23. Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain in the 14/11 zone. VIX 20s look unlikely until at least early June.
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains very low, and if the equity indexes can push a further few percent higher, then VIX will remain at these levels for another few weeks.
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more later...on the indexes
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains very low, and if the equity indexes can push a further few percent higher, then VIX will remain at these levels for another few weeks.
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more later...on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equity indexes all closed higher, with new historic highs in the Dow and the Transports. The sp' settled +18pts @ 1896. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed higher by 1.9% and 2.4% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish.
sp'60min
Summary
A very positive start to the week for the equity bulls, but then..today was their best opportunity, with the hourly cycles primed, along with $2-3bn of QE fuel.
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*I remain entirely on the sidelines overnight, and might well remain so until this nonsense maxes out within the next few weeks.
more later..on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
A very positive start to the week for the equity bulls, but then..today was their best opportunity, with the hourly cycles primed, along with $2-3bn of QE fuel.
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*I remain entirely on the sidelines overnight, and might well remain so until this nonsense maxes out within the next few weeks.
more later..on the VIX
3pm update - melt into the close
US indexes look set to melt higher into the close. With new historic highs in the Dow and Transports, equity bulls have started the week on a pretty strong note. The sp'1900s look due tomorrow, along with a VIX that remains utterly crushed.
sp'60min
Summary
*I will remain on the sidelines overnight..and might do remain so until a clear multi-week cycle top appears..and that might not be until mid June.
Whether we close at a new in the sp'500..really not important, not least new historic highs in the Dow//Trans.
sp'60min
Summary
*I will remain on the sidelines overnight..and might do remain so until a clear multi-week cycle top appears..and that might not be until mid June.
Whether we close at a new in the sp'500..really not important, not least new historic highs in the Dow//Trans.
2pm update - truck load of short stops
Mr Market is set to trigger a veritable truck load of equity bear short-stops. A daily close in the sp'1900s remains a very viable scenario, which would equate to Dow in the 16700s. Metals are cooling down..Gold +$7.
sp'daily5
Summary
Both hourly/daily charts will be offering the 1900s by end of today (weekly cycles are already allowing 1905/07).
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Bears look set to be ground down into the close.
yours.. on the sidelines.
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2.14pm.. R2K +2.3%...a major move on any outlook. At this rate..won't take more than a week or two to hit the 1170/80 zone..which might be a key lower RS high.
Notable strength: TWTR +5.9%
sp'daily5
Summary
Both hourly/daily charts will be offering the 1900s by end of today (weekly cycles are already allowing 1905/07).
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Bears look set to be ground down into the close.
yours.. on the sidelines.
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2.14pm.. R2K +2.3%...a major move on any outlook. At this rate..won't take more than a week or two to hit the 1170/80 zone..which might be a key lower RS high.
Notable strength: TWTR +5.9%
1pm update - looking further ahead
Whilst the market is seeing some chop before the sp' breaks the 1897 high...there remains a particularly interesting scenario.. where the Dow/SP/Trans break new highs, whilst the R2K/Nasdaq merely form a RS...somewhere around 1160/80 zone.
R2K, weekly2
R2K, daily
Summary
The above scenario I've occasionally highlighted across the last few weeks.
I would consider the recent weakness in the R2K/Nasdaq as the first 'early warning'.
Best guess...sp'1920s...with R2K...1170/80..and then a major rollover.
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First resistance right now though.. sp'1900/10 zone..but that will rise next week to around 1915/20....'best bull case'.
R2K, weekly2
R2K, daily
Summary
The above scenario I've occasionally highlighted across the last few weeks.
I would consider the recent weakness in the R2K/Nasdaq as the first 'early warning'.
Best guess...sp'1920s...with R2K...1170/80..and then a major rollover.
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First resistance right now though.. sp'1900/10 zone..but that will rise next week to around 1915/20....'best bull case'.
12pm update - holding the gains
US equities are holding the gains, and the smaller 15/60min cycles are offering the prospect of a baby bull flag developing into the late afternoon. The sp'500 looks set to break a new high, however the R2K/Nasdaq...are way behind.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.
There seems a complete absense of bears, and it sure won't take much to trigger a truck load of short stops in the 1895/1900 zone.
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VIX update from Mr T.
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*I remain content on the sidelines, having cleared the deck earlier. I might merely sit back for a week or two..or however long, until the current wave is done.
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time for tea
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.
There seems a complete absense of bears, and it sure won't take much to trigger a truck load of short stops in the 1895/1900 zone.
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VIX update from Mr T.
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*I remain content on the sidelines, having cleared the deck earlier. I might merely sit back for a week or two..or however long, until the current wave is done.
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time for tea
11am update - new historic highs
The Transports makes yet another historic high, and is finally followed by the Dow. The sp'500 looks set for the sp'1900s in the immediate term. Metals are strong, Gold +$10, with Silver +2.2%. VIX is crushed, and has already slipped into the 11s.
Trans, daily
sp'weekly'8b
Summary
*I have been in a few annoying positions lately, and with the market significantly higher this morning, I have decided to clear the deck, exiting 4 longs, CHK, DO, SDRL, and STX.
I have little interest in picking up anything until at least tomorrow, but frankly, I might be done for a few weeks until this nonsense levels out.
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So...equity bulls have managed to break into the sp'1890s...with two new historic highs in the Dow/Trans.
Bears look powerless, and it would seem just a matter of hours..or tomorrow..until the sp'1900s.
Certainly, seems zero point in shorting anything for at least a few weeks.
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*I still like SDRL, but...I'm done with that for today.
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11.30am.. Indexes are probably just building a baby bull flag... before new highs late today.
Notable weakness (relative to the main market) in the drillers, DO, RIG, SDRL, and I'm not sure why. Oh well, I'm out of those anyway.
Trans, daily
sp'weekly'8b
Summary
*I have been in a few annoying positions lately, and with the market significantly higher this morning, I have decided to clear the deck, exiting 4 longs, CHK, DO, SDRL, and STX.
I have little interest in picking up anything until at least tomorrow, but frankly, I might be done for a few weeks until this nonsense levels out.
--
So...equity bulls have managed to break into the sp'1890s...with two new historic highs in the Dow/Trans.
Bears look powerless, and it would seem just a matter of hours..or tomorrow..until the sp'1900s.
Certainly, seems zero point in shorting anything for at least a few weeks.
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*I still like SDRL, but...I'm done with that for today.
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11.30am.. Indexes are probably just building a baby bull flag... before new highs late today.
Notable weakness (relative to the main market) in the drillers, DO, RIG, SDRL, and I'm not sure why. Oh well, I'm out of those anyway.
10am update - bulls pushing hard
Equity bulls are pushing hard to break the 'jobs Friday' high of sp'1897. Metals are significantly higher, Gold +$10, with Silver +2.1%. VIX remains crushed...-3% in the 12.40s.
sp'60min
Summary
...just back...more soon...
9.56am.. EXITED CHK.... was getting real tired of that one.
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10.02am.. so..new highs in the Dow.. and Transports....SP set to follow.
10.19am.. Market in melt higher mode, and another wave of bears are going to get the big short-stop boot soon.
The 1900s..are coming.
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10.29am.. 5/15min cycles looking toppy....
I am CLEARING the deck...
EXITED DO, SDRL, STX.... (in addition to CHK)
Zero positions...will reassess later....
To be clear, I'm not expecting a major wave lower from here...but I'm just tired...this morning is as good a time as any to exit everything..and sit back ..for a little.
sp'60min
Summary
...just back...more soon...
9.56am.. EXITED CHK.... was getting real tired of that one.
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10.02am.. so..new highs in the Dow.. and Transports....SP set to follow.
10.19am.. Market in melt higher mode, and another wave of bears are going to get the big short-stop boot soon.
The 1900s..are coming.
--
10.29am.. 5/15min cycles looking toppy....
I am CLEARING the deck...
EXITED DO, SDRL, STX.... (in addition to CHK)
Zero positions...will reassess later....
To be clear, I'm not expecting a major wave lower from here...but I'm just tired...this morning is as good a time as any to exit everything..and sit back ..for a little.
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +8pts, we're set to open at 1886- a mere 11pts (0.6%) from breaking a new historic high. Precious metals are higher, Gold +$7, with Silver +1.7%. Equity bulls have good opportunity today, of widening the door to new highs.
sp'60min
Summary
Hourly index cycles are most certainly in favour of the bulls this morning, if not most of the day.
A daily close in the 1890s would be a major achievement, and open up a break of the 1900 threshold Tue/Wednesday. If that is achieved, a further 20pts seem viable, by late May.
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Video update from Oscar
So..it would seem Mr C. is back on the bull train. He sure has flipped back and forth lately.
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I will be elsewhere for the open...back at 11am (probably).
sp'60min
Summary
Hourly index cycles are most certainly in favour of the bulls this morning, if not most of the day.
A daily close in the 1890s would be a major achievement, and open up a break of the 1900 threshold Tue/Wednesday. If that is achieved, a further 20pts seem viable, by late May.
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Video update from Oscar
So..it would seem Mr C. is back on the bull train. He sure has flipped back and forth lately.
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I will be elsewhere for the open...back at 11am (probably).
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