Gains in volatility

With the main equity indexes slipping for the third consecutive day, the VIX managed to battle higher, and hold most of the gains, closing +9.1% @ 14.31. Baring some major negative news, equity bears are going to struggle to push <sp'1690, with the VIX 15/16s looking difficult to attain.


vix'60min

vix'daily3

Summary

For the VIX, today was the first decent closing gain since Aug'26. Yet, the VIX is only in the 14s, and even the 15s are looking difficult to break into tomorrow/Wednesday.

The notion of VIX 20s is completely off the table for some weeks..if not months. Indeed, that is a very serious issue all those touting major 'autumnal declines' need to consider.

The VIX 2012 high of 27 does not look viable in the remainder of this year, which..if you really think about it..says everything you need to know about which direction this market is headed.
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more later on the main indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed moderately lower for the third consecutive day, with the sp -8pts @ 1701. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed lower by -0.6% and -0.1% respectively. The current decline is probably just a very minor pull back before the next ramp into the mid sp'1730s.


sp'60min

Summary

So..a third day lower, and certainly, the sp'1729 high is looking a fair way higher, but really, as someone who has closely followed this market for years, I sure don't sense any power on the downside.

Whether tomorrow..or later in the week, the market looks set to battle higher, at which point many will no doubt be top calling at another new high in the sp'1750/75 zone.

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the usual bits and pieces across the evening

3pm update - trying to battle higher

The main indexes are still moderately lower, but there really isn't much power on the downside. The micro 5/15min cycles are offering upside into the close. VIX is +8.9%, but could easily close back in the upper 13s. Metals are largely flat, whilst Oil is -0.4%.


sp'60min

Summary

A relatively quiet start to the week. Weak bulls have been washed out, and now its just a case of seeing whether the QE fuel is enough to outweigh the slight selling.

Based on the past few years....the answer is probably yes.
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AAPL remains stock of the day..now holding gains of 5% again, and if the main market rallies across the rest of this week, then the $520s will be comfortably hit.

updates into the close
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3.13pm.. for those watching the daily charts..it looks like we have a classic bounce off the 10MA

The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both look much the same...

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3.32pm... back to the sp'1700 threshold. Well, bears can tout all they like about 'ohh, here we go', but the main indexes are only moderately lower. Same old nonsense, and no doubt the usual ones will be top calling in their closing day posts. 


3.44pm.. a nano whipsaw from sp'1700 to 1703..and now a close over 1705 is viable. For those holding short overnight, I'd be...concerned.

2pm update - first target sp'1705

The hourly index/VIX charts appear to have secured a floor at sp'1697. First upside target for the bulls is the hourly 10MA, which at the close will be around 1705. Any daily close over that, and the bears should be very concerned about 1730s later this week.


sp'60min

Summary

There simply still seems to be no real power on the downside. Sure, we have fallen almost 2% since FOMC spike high, but with ongoing QE...it remains an extremely difficult market to attempt to play on the short side.

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With two hours to go...a green close? Its not like we've not seen it happen a few hundred times in the past few years.

Lets see what those bull maniacs can manage into the close.

1pm update - start of a latter day ramp?

The hourly index/VIX cycle charts are offering the first sign of a turn. Equity bulls should be looking sp>1705 by the close, with VIX back <14. It remains a largely quiet market, and with significant QE fuel across the week, bears face major problems.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Far from getting wrapped in bearish hysteria - and that is exactly what its been for months, I remain focused on the bigger weekly trends, which remain outright bullish.

Yes, the bears have managed a drop from 1729 to 1697 in just 3 trading days, but there really isn't any real power behind it.

Its getting tiresome again, and its only Monday.
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VIX update from Mr T.



stay tuned

12pm update - a teasing Monday for the bears

Mr Market has broken the sp'1700 level, but equity bears should be desperate for a daily close under it. Even then, the 1690s will do nothing to negate the bigger upward trend. It remains the same old nonsense in market land, can the bulls get a latter day QE fuelled ramp?


sp'60min

sp'weekly8

Summary

Without getting lost in the minor noise of the smaller hourly cycles, we're unquestionably very low on the MACD cycle, and there is little reason why we won't see some degree of rally in the late afternoon.

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11am update - moderate declines

The main indexes continue to slide, but the declines are only 0.5% for the sp', with the bears no doubt desperate to get a daily close <1700. VIX is 10% higher in the mid 14s. AAPL is holding significant gains of $20 (4%).


sp'60min

Summary

No doubt the bearish hysteria will be appearing across many of the usual sites now. After all, this is the major start of a collapse wave, right?

It remains the same old nonsense, day after day..week after week..from the bears.

None of them want to recognise what has already happened since January..when we started the year around 1400. It is pathetically laughable how short-sighted..and in outright denial they remain.
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Eyes on the bigger picture. That is all that matters.

10am update - the best the bears can manage

The main indexes are moderately lower, with the sp' testing the big 1700 psy level. It remains a relatively quiet start to the week. VIX is higher, +7%, but still in the low 14s. Notable mover remains AAPL, which looks set to make a break into the low $500s.


sp'60min

vix'60min

AAPL, daily

Summary

So...a quiet open, and despite the opening weakness, I would be very surprised if the bears manage a daily close <1700.

There is simply a general lack of power on the bearish side.

With sig' QE today, bears face the usual problems, and a latter day ramp..to close moderately higher is very viable.
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*I hold long the indexes, and am not particularly concerned. We're not even 0.5% lower.
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10.15am.. Anyone want to chase this market lower? Ohh, I'm sure there will be all sorts of bearish hysteria this morning. After all, three down days in a row, clearly its all going to collapse now.

Lets see how we close, thats what matters.
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10.30am... for those who think the market will continue higher...GDX is kinda interesting to note.

Metals appear similarly floored this hour.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a little lower, sp -3pts, we're set to open at 1706. Precious metals are similarly lower, Gold -$2. Equity bulls should be looking to hold the big psy level of sp'1700 this morning, and battle higher into the 1720s within the next few days.


sp'60min

Summary

So..opening declines, but its nothing dramatic, and unless the bears can break this market..and close it sub 1700s today/tomorrow, there is little reason to expect the mid-term trend has changed.

Considering the amount of QE this week, the Merkel victory, and underlying bullish sentiment, the market has a very significant chance of breaking into the 1730s later in the week.

Notable early mover: AAPL, +$15, 3%.


9.03m... AAPL now +$30 (6%) at $497.   Hmm,  I've no idea why that is.