With equities closing fractionally higher, the VIX continued to cool, settling -0.5% @ 14.98 (intra low 14.82). Near term outlook is for further equity gains to the sp'2060s, which will likely equate to VIX 13/12s. The key 20 threshold looks out of range for at least another week.
VIX'daily3
Summary
*it is notable that the VIX has declined for 13 of the last 15 trading days.
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VIX remains broadly melting lower from the lower high of 28.33 (Sept'28th).
On any daily close >sp'2060, the VIX will certainly lose the teens.
US equity indexes closed fractionally higher, sp +0.6pts @ 2033 (intra high 2034). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is for a test of the 200dma of sp'2059/60. Even if the market stalls and reverses.. it will not negate the threat of a second upside break attempt in Nov/Dec.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add... on what was a mere consolidation day, before the market resumes higher into the sp'2040s.. and probably another 1% on top of that.
Equity bears should be extremely concerned about the looming ECB meeting this Thursday.. where Draghi could easily threaten increased QE and send the market on another cascade higher.
For the moment, there appears ZERO reason to be short anything.
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The week has started with a day of chop.. merely consolidating, before the next push upward. All indexes look set to test their respective 200dma's within the next 3-7 trading days. VIX remains naturally subdued in the low 15s.. having broken into the 14s earlier.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Little to add.
The gains in DIS and INTC are not to be dismissed lightly.
Nor even the reversal in NFLX... just about key support.
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US equities see another touch of weakness, but the underlying strength should be obvious to even the most biased of equity bears. With leader stocks like DIS - in the $109s, and INTC $33s, bears should remain highly cautious ahead of the next ECB and FOMC. A straight run into the sp'2060s.. and beyond, is very viable.
DIS, daily
INTC, daily
Summary
INTC and DIS were two of the key stocks warning of trouble from May-August, and now they are warning of further upside into Nov.
All that is missing right now is AAPL... currently stuck around $111.
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notable weakness, precious metal miners, GDX -3.5%.. which is a rough performance considering Gold is only -$2
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US equities are broadly flat.. and stuck within the sp'2035/30 zone.. along with VIX 15s. USD is holding moderate gains of 0.4% in the DXY 94.90s. Gold -$2. Oil -2.2%.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add... on what is arguably a day of quiet consolidation.. before the next move higher.
Equity bears have two opportunities to reverse the hyper-ramp...
1. ECB...Oct 22'nd, a Draghi failure to threaten QE.. and inspire more 'easy money' coming sentiment
2. FOMC...Oct'28th a market losing faith in the Feds refusal to raise rates.
Right now, just one of those would be enough to retrace to the sp'1950s.
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notable strength
DIS, daily
The $110s look due late today/early Tuesday... as the Star Wars hysteria will exponentially grow into the Dec' release.
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US equities are starting to turn positive, and a daily close in the sp'2040s looks due.. whether today.. or by Wed. All indexes look set to test their respective 200dmas.. equiv' to sp'2059/60. VIX has naturally turned negative... breaking into the 14s. The 13/12s look due if sp'2060s.
sp'daily5
Summary
Little to add.
Underlying upward pressure should be apparent to even the more biased of equity bears.
The bigger weekly cycles are seeing bullish MACD crosses today on some indexes.. and that bodes for a straight UP route into November.
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notable morning reversal in NFLX, having cemented a short term floor of $96.26.
60min
First target for the momo chasing maniacs will be a daily close back above the psy' level of $100. After that... 106/107.
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US equities remain a little lower, but there is clearly no real downside power, and the sp'2040s remain due. USD is building moderate gains, +0.4% in the DXY 94.90s. Gold -$4. Oil -2.1% in the $46s.
sp'weekly7
Summary
*notable third green candle on the weekly chart.
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Not much to add.. on what is a rather quiet Monday.
Price action will no doubt pick up as the week proceeds.. not least on Thursday, when Draghi will likely threaten increased QE.. as deflationary pressures are increasing across the Eurozone.
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notable strength: DIS,
daily
Very consistent... pushing higher... first target 113/115... by early Nov (earnings 5th).
... the internet will melt down around 8pm EST. DIS bears.. beware.
US equities open a little lower to sp'2022, but there are already signs that any downside today will be very muted.. and certainly not until 2010. VIX is +4%.. but still in the lowly 15s. Oil is notably weak, -1.8%.. and that is not helping energy stocks.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Broadly.. equity bears can't expect anything much of today... or this week.
Really, it seems a case of waiting to see where we are trading at the time of the next FOMC (Wed' Oct 28th).
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notable weakness: MS, -5.9% on lousy earnings
strength: DIS, +0.5% in the $108s.. the 109s look imminent... with a new Star Wars trailer this evening. The internetz is ready to melt down on that.
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Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, sp -7pts, we're set to open at 2026. USD is seeing a minor bounce, +0.3% in the DXY 94.80s. Commodities are under pressure, Gold -$3, with Oil -1.6%.
sp'daily5
Summary
So... opening declines, but nothing significant.
Further upside into the sp'2040s looks rather easy this week. The only issue is whether we see any daily closes 2060 before end month.
In my view, the biggest threat to the equity bears this week will be the ECB (Thursday). If there are any serious threats of lower rates and/or increased QE, the market will likely jump at least 1%.
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Nenner
As ever.. make of that... what you will.
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Overnight Asia action
Japan: -0.9% @ 18131
China: -0.1% @ 3386, having briefly hit 3423. The 3400s are clear resistance,.
