Having climbed from the 13s to the 17s, the VIX saw a broad day of cooling, settling -6.5% @ 14.68. Near term outlook offers the 18/19s - if sp'2040/30s. Sustained action above the key 20 threshold still looks extremely difficult in the current cycle.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffice to add... a day when the VIX was ground lower across the day, as equities clawed higher into the sp'2080s.
Despite the Monday cooling, VIX will have ample opportunity to spike much higher later this week.. with the 18/19s well within range.
However.. it remains the case, that sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks out of range until the latter half of May.
US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +16pts @ 2081. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers renewed downside to the 2040s. A daily close in the 2030/20s will be really difficult, along with a VIX above the key 20 threshold.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: So much for cooling into the close, as the market made a new intra high of 2083.
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Overall though, a pretty quiet start to the week, despite all sorts of negative news out there.
Clearly, it remains the case that the rebounds are very strong, and regularly recover most of the declines. As noted last week, until I see a daily close in the sp'2020s, I won't have any real confidence that 2111 is a key mid term high. After today's gain, attaining a daily close in the 2020s looks damn difficult this week.
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Perhaps one of the finest endings to almost any film of the last decade...
".. the truth is........ I am Iron Man". Stark, T. (2008).
.. and that made for far better viewing in the closing hour, than the cheerleaders on clown finance TV.
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Meanwhile... the technology for the Green Goblin is almost complete...
US equity indexes are holding broad gains, with the sp'500 breaking a new intra high of 2079. The smaller 5/15/60min cycles are all on the high side, and offer initial some cooling into the close. USD continues to weaken, -0.5% in the DXY 92.60s. Oil remains weak, -2.5% in the $44s.
sp'60min
USO'daily2
Summary
Well, a broadly bullish day to start the month... but things sure could be different in another 21 trading days.
notable weakness... miners, GDX, daily
.. but its also notable that GDX broke a new cycle high this morning.
Having declined from a Thursday afternoon high of sp'2099 to a Friday afternoon low of 2052, the market is already back to the upper 2070s. VIX is naturally being ground down, -4% in the upper 14s. As things stand, renewed downside to the 2040s still looks highly probable.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Little to add.
A lousy start to the week for the equity bears, but we should break last Friday's low within the next few days.
Clearly though..having bounced back so strongly.. a move to the 2030s - or more importantly.. the 2020s looks damn difficult.
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notable weakness, AAPL, daily
Broadly weak... and relative to the main market, AAPL really is struggling, despite an increased stock buy back. Maybe they just need to buy back ALL the shares to solve the declining EPS/revenue?
Whilst US equities are holding moderate gains in the sp'2070s - with VIX 15s, there is notable weakness in Oil, currently -2.7% in the $44s. The over supply issue remains completely unresolved, and with prices back in the 40s.. some are no doubt ramping up production.
USO, daily2
sp'60min
Summary
Note the black-fail candle from last Friday.. they are not to be dismissed lightly. It is a very valid question whether Oil has maxed out in the $46s.
As for equities... clearly, next opportunity for sig' downside is not until tomorrow.. if not Wed' - when we have the next ADP jobs.. and indeed, the latest EIA report.
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notable weakness.. APC, daily
On the edge of breaking rising trend from the Jan' low. Kinda interesting?
US equities remain moderately higher, and it seems just a matter of how many hours until the next rollover. In theory... the next down wave should at least break into the sp'2045/40 zone. Things really only get interesting with a break under the two soft lows of 2039/33.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*the spikes on the two most recent hourly equity/VIX candles are marginally interesting.
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Not much to add... as we're still set for lower levels this week.
I realise some will tout 2052 as another higher low (which it currently is)... and will be understandably be seeking >2111 within the next week or two. Equity bears sure could do with a daily close in the 2020s later this week.
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notable weakness... TSLA, daily
TSLA is one of many momo stocks that just can't break a new high, next support are the 50/200dmas in the 227/226s.. and that is another 3% lower.
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US equities are moderately higher, but somewhat choppy, and look vulnerable to turning red later today. USD remains weak, -0.3% in the DXY 92.70s. Metals have seen a notable reversal from early gains, Gold -$2, with Silver -0.9%. Oil is -1.4% in the $45s.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
So.. a relatively quiet open to the week, but there is weakness to be seen in a fair few places, not least in energy stocks.
Clearly, hourly equity/VIX cycles are favouring the equity bulls right now.. and probably for the rest of today.. but tomorrow.. and more so.. Wednesday we should be in the sp'2040s. Even then... the sp'2040s are not low enough to give any initial clarity that 2111 will likely hold on the next multi-day bounce.
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notable weakness... KMI, daily
Remaining firmly stuck... and looks very vulnerable to the lower end of the gap zone in the low $15s... which would likely equate to sp'1990s.
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US equities open moderately higher, but price action is already a little shaky, with indexes vulnerable to turning red. A break below the Friday low of sp'2052 looks a given this week.. which should open up 2040 - with VIX 18s. Metals are starting to cool from initial gains, with the miners now marginally negative.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*a new month... and the monthly index charts are looking rather interesting indeed... but more on that later.
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Note the opening black-fail candle for the sp'500.... with VIX reversing back upward.
So... its choppy... with the bigger daily/weekly cycles increasingly leaning weak.
A net daily decline looks viable, but next opp' for sig' downside will be tomorrow.
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notable weakness... STX, daily
The horror continues, for what remains a superb tech' hardware manufacturer.
Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open at 2070. USD continues to cool, -0.3% in the DXY 92.70s. Metals are relentlessly climbing, Gold +$6, with Silver +0.5%. Oil is -0.3% in the $45s.
sp'60min
Summary
So, Friday's closing hour ramp is set to continue into a new month.
Indeed, underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) is on the very low side, and there is high potential we'll just grind upward across most of today.
However, the bigger daily/weekly cycles bode for lower levels at the week proceeds... at least to the low 2040s.
Equity bears should be seeking a break <2033... but that won't be easy.
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early movers
GDX +2% in the $26s. relentless strength
STX -1.4% in the $21s, continuing to implode after lousy earnings
