Tuesday 26 March 2019

Rate outlook shifting

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +20pts (0.7%) at 2818. Nasdaq comp' +0.7%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.1% and +1.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers moderate upside, before another swing lower, probably on BREXIT 'hard-exit' concerns.




US equities opened moderately higher, and quickly built significant gains to 2829. There was a distinct cooling wave in late morning to 2803, with the afternoon seeing renewed upside. Volatility was in cooling mode, with the VIX settling -10.1% at 14.68.

Rate outlook shifting

Today saw the cheerleaders on the lunchtime show, argue over the next move in interest rates. It is increasingly the case that many now expect a rate cut as early as September.

For the record, I don't expect a rate cut until at least the FOMC of Oct'30th or Dec'11th. In any case, a rate cut will be the ultimate sell signal.

Ohh, and BREXIT is now just 3 days away. Whilst there will be a truck load of 'indicative' votes in the UK Parliament on Wednesday, it makes zero difference, as UK law has NOT yet been changed.

More making an escape from BREXIT land

Long evenings begin this Sunday, with the UK/EU clocks changing.
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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