sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*a somewhat weak closing hour, but still... certainly not significant. Even a weekly close in the sp'2070s won't do any damage to the bulls.
--
A pretty dull day, I'll be glad for the weekend.
-
a daily wrap at 8pm EST
Thursday, 19 February 2015
Closing Brief
US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts @ 2097 (intra high 2102). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled effectively unchanged. Near term outlook offers a minor retracement to the 50dma (sp'2045/50 zone), but the underlying price pressure remains strongly bullish.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*a somewhat weak closing hour, but still... certainly not significant. Even a weekly close in the sp'2070s won't do any damage to the bulls.
--
A pretty dull day, I'll be glad for the weekend.
-
a daily wrap at 8pm EST
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*a somewhat weak closing hour, but still... certainly not significant. Even a weekly close in the sp'2070s won't do any damage to the bulls.
--
A pretty dull day, I'll be glad for the weekend.
-
a daily wrap at 8pm EST
3pm update - tiresome Thursday
Despite some rather notable corporate and geo-political headlines, US equities remain largely muted... although once again, broke a new historic high of sp'2102. VIX is vainly attempting to floor in the low 15s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$3. Oil remains weak, -1.0%, but well above the earlier low.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
Simply... tiresome.... and its getting overly cold again, even here in the capital.
It is the Friday close yet?
--
Notable strength: momo stocks... FB +3.7%, TSLA +3.3%, TWTR +1%
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
Simply... tiresome.... and its getting overly cold again, even here in the capital.
It is the Friday close yet?
--
Notable strength: momo stocks... FB +3.7%, TSLA +3.3%, TWTR +1%
2pm update - minor weakness
Equities remain a touch weak, although even a daily close <sp'2090 looks difficult. VIX is not reflecting any market concern, -1% in the 15.30s. Metals are melting lower, Gold -$3. Oil remains extremely volatile, -0.4%... but that is a full 4% above the morning low.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*note the opening VIX candle of the last two days, the black-fail type... VIX still failing to display any real power
--
Frankly, its day'3 of tedium. I'm real tired of it.
Even sporadic headlines about Greece are doing virtually nothing to rattle the mainstream.
If Greece leaves the Euro/EU on a Sunday night, are we to expect futures +2%? Is that really what we're facing?
--
In any case... 2hrs left of the day, and price action will likely remain muted.
-
Notable weakness: GDX -1.9%, pressured by underlying weakness in the metals.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*note the opening VIX candle of the last two days, the black-fail type... VIX still failing to display any real power
--
Frankly, its day'3 of tedium. I'm real tired of it.
Even sporadic headlines about Greece are doing virtually nothing to rattle the mainstream.
If Greece leaves the Euro/EU on a Sunday night, are we to expect futures +2%? Is that really what we're facing?
--
In any case... 2hrs left of the day, and price action will likely remain muted.
-
Notable weakness: GDX -1.9%, pressured by underlying weakness in the metals.
12pm update - normal service continues
Despite increasing concern over Greece... US equities have resumed higher, breaking a new historic high of sp'2102. VIX is reflecting an incredibly confident... and largely subdued market, -2% in the low 15s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$1. Oil has managed another crazy intra ramp... from -4%.... back to flat.
sp'60min
USO, daily
Summary
*a pretty damn strong reversal on Oil, which now looks set to turn positive this afternoon. Overall price structure from early Feb could be argued as a bull flag. Regardless, underlying issues of supply have in no way been addressed. A break <$43 still looks due.
--
As for equities... I'm aware some are seeking a brief move to 2110/20s.. before the next opportunity of a retrace.
Best guess... I'm still seeking a test of the 50dma.. next week that will be around sp'2050.
--
VIX update from Mr T. (due)
*seemingly not appearing either today. VIX trading so dull, no appearence?
-
time for tea... back at 2pm
sp'60min
USO, daily
Summary
*a pretty damn strong reversal on Oil, which now looks set to turn positive this afternoon. Overall price structure from early Feb could be argued as a bull flag. Regardless, underlying issues of supply have in no way been addressed. A break <$43 still looks due.
--
As for equities... I'm aware some are seeking a brief move to 2110/20s.. before the next opportunity of a retrace.
Best guess... I'm still seeking a test of the 50dma.. next week that will be around sp'2050.
--
VIX update from Mr T. (due)
*seemingly not appearing either today. VIX trading so dull, no appearence?
-
time for tea... back at 2pm
10am update - opening weakness
US equities open moderately lower, marginally breaking yesterdays low, so far hitting sp'2090. With concern over a viable new cycle low for Oil, and the unresolved Greek situation, there remains high opportunity for a move down to the 50dma in the sp'2040s.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
*opening black-fail candle on the VIX.. there have been a fair few of those lately. Again, it doesn't bode well for the equity bears.
--
So... we open a little lower, but again.. its nothing significant. Having ramped 6% from sp'1980... it remains incredible how the market 'struggles' to hold -0.5% or more.
--
Energy stocks are particularly weak (not surprisingly)...
RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -3.5%
-
Notable strength: airlines (on lower Oil), DAL/UAL, higher by 3% and 4% respectively.
**awaiting the EIA oil report at 11am.
-
11.11am... Oil surpuse was 7.7 million .. Oil has managed to claw back upward, -3%.... and this is certainly helping equities.
Metals remain weak, gold -$3
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
*opening black-fail candle on the VIX.. there have been a fair few of those lately. Again, it doesn't bode well for the equity bears.
--
So... we open a little lower, but again.. its nothing significant. Having ramped 6% from sp'1980... it remains incredible how the market 'struggles' to hold -0.5% or more.
--
Energy stocks are particularly weak (not surprisingly)...
RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -3.5%
-
Notable strength: airlines (on lower Oil), DAL/UAL, higher by 3% and 4% respectively.
**awaiting the EIA oil report at 11am.
-
11.11am... Oil surpuse was 7.7 million .. Oil has managed to claw back upward, -3%.... and this is certainly helping equities.
Metals remain weak, gold -$3
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. Futures are moderately weak, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 2095. Equity bears should be seeking a break of 2092, which will open up 2075/70 by the Friday close. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$10. Oil is sharply lower, -3.0% in the $50s, ahead of the key EIA report.
sp'60min
WTIC, daily
Summary
*we have jobs data soon, along with Phil'fed and leading indicators... however, far more interesting will be the EIA report at 11am (yes, its normally 10.30am).
If Oil inventories come in any higher than 6/7 million barrels, it'll be a real problem for the oil bulls. Any surplus >10 million, and Oil is going to lose the $50 threshold... and be in real danger of breaking the recent key low of $43.
--
As for equities.. we're certainly due a down cycle. To me, a test of the 50dma @ 2045 would be the natural target.. although I realise some will be dismissive of that.
This morning, Germany has rejected a 6mth extension to Greece... and Merkel has been talking a lot about solidarity. Hmm... a deal right now looks to be pushed out to end month... this remains a case of who will concede first.
--
Hopefully the price action today will be more dynamic than the past two days.
Have a good Thursday.
-
9.14am sp-7pts... 2092..... on the edge of a straight break.... Oil -4.5%..... starting to look real ugly
sp'60min
WTIC, daily
Summary
*we have jobs data soon, along with Phil'fed and leading indicators... however, far more interesting will be the EIA report at 11am (yes, its normally 10.30am).
If Oil inventories come in any higher than 6/7 million barrels, it'll be a real problem for the oil bulls. Any surplus >10 million, and Oil is going to lose the $50 threshold... and be in real danger of breaking the recent key low of $43.
--
As for equities.. we're certainly due a down cycle. To me, a test of the 50dma @ 2045 would be the natural target.. although I realise some will be dismissive of that.
This morning, Germany has rejected a 6mth extension to Greece... and Merkel has been talking a lot about solidarity. Hmm... a deal right now looks to be pushed out to end month... this remains a case of who will concede first.
--
Hopefully the price action today will be more dynamic than the past two days.
Have a good Thursday.
-
9.14am sp-7pts... 2092..... on the edge of a straight break.... Oil -4.5%..... starting to look real ugly
Daily Wrap
US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -0.7pts @ 2099. The two
leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. Near term outlook
remains uncertain whilst the Greek situation remains unresolved, there
is reasonable opportunity for a minor retrace to the 50dma in the
sp'2045/50 zone.
sp'daily5
Dow
Summary
*Notable new historic high in the R2K, and post 2009 high in the Nasdaq Comp'
--
Looking ahead
Thursday will see the usual weekly jobless claims, phil' fed, and leading indicators. Considering today's lacklustre response to an array of econ-data, it would seem market might just remain subdued for the rest of the week.
-
Goodnight from London
sp'daily5
Dow
Summary
*Notable new historic high in the R2K, and post 2009 high in the Nasdaq Comp'
--
Looking ahead
Thursday will see the usual weekly jobless claims, phil' fed, and leading indicators. Considering today's lacklustre response to an array of econ-data, it would seem market might just remain subdued for the rest of the week.
-
Goodnight from London
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