Saturday 31 December 2016

Weekend update - World monthly indexes

The year ended on a broadly bullish note for world equity markets, with net monthly changes ranging from 11.4% (Russia), 5.3% (UK), 3.3% (USA - Dow), to -4.5% (China). The mid term outlook for most world markets remains outright bullish. Net yearly changes ranged from 51.9% (Russia), 14.4% (UK), 13.4% (USA - Dow), to -12.3% (China).

Lets take our monthly look at ten of the world equity markets

USA - Dow

US equities ended the year on a bullish note, with a net Dec' gain of 639pts (3.3%), settling @ 19726. This was an impressive rally from a Jan' low of 16466. There were two key higher lows... the BREXIT low of 17063, and the pre-election low of 17883.

For the year, the mighty Dow gained a significant 13.4%. Underlying MACD (green bar histogram) continues to tick higher, with the key 10MA in the 18300s.

There weren't quite enough buyers to push the Dow through the 20K threshold before year end, but it does seem probable in Jan'/Feb.

The next big fibonacci price target is 26702. Clearly, that is a very considerable way higher, and will take until at least the latter 3-4 months of 2017.


The economic powerhouse of the EU - Germany, saw its market end the year powerfully bullish, with a net Dec' gain of 840pts (7.9%). The late year surge made for a 2016 net gain of 6.9%. Underlying price momentum has turned positive for the first time since summer 2015. Next upside target is the April 2015 historic high of 12390.

For the wave counters out there, the DAX presents the cleanest price structure of all world markets. It could be argued the DAX is in a final fifth wave from the March 2009 low. If you like the notion that the next bear market will be on the order of 50%... and accept that old resistance of 8k is now long term support, then a basic upside target should be 15/16k. That is a realistic target by late 2017.


The BoJ fuelled Nikkei gained 805pts (4.4%) in Dec', which made for a net yearly gain of 0.04%. Indeed, considering the ongoing QE, its a pretty lame outcome for the central bankers. Underlying price momentum is set to turn positive in January, and that does bode for an eventual attempt to break above the June 2015 high.


The Chinese market was the big laggard this year, ending the year on a significantly bearish note, -146pts (4.5%) at 3103. This made for a net yearly decline of -12.3%. Its notable that the Shanghai comp' is still almost 50% below the Oct'2007 high. Another way to look at it... the Chinese market needs to almost double to break a new historic high. Clearly, that won't be easy. Broader price structure since the Jan' low of 2638 is arguably a very big bear flag. That will be negated though on any price action >3500.


The Brazilian market ended the year on a weak note, -1679pts (2.7%) at 60227. However, that was still a massive 16877pts (38.9%) net higher for the year. There was a clear break above declining trend/channel in Oct', and despite Nov-Dec' weakness, the Bovespa looks strong. Things only turn provisionally bearish with a break under 50k.


The Russian market was the leader this year, with a net Dec' gain of 117pts (11.4%), which resulted in a 2016 gain of 51.9%. The grand down wave that began April 2011 has unquestionably concluded. Next big upside target are the 1600/1700s. If energy prices can broadly rally across 2017, the Russian market has a fair chance of trading around 2K by late 2017.


The UK market ended the year strong, with a Dec' gain of 359pts (5.3%) at 7142. This made for a 2016 gain of 14.4%. The monthly close above multi-decade resistance of 7k is an extremely bullish sign for the UK, other EU markets, and to some extent... the US.

Much like the DAX, for those that believe the next bear market will be roughly 50%... if 7K is now long term support, the FTSE will need to rise to at least 13k or so... and that is a very long way higher.


The CAC settled strongly higher in Dec', +284pts (6.2%) to 4862, which made for a net 2016 gain of 4.8%. Next upside target is the 5000/100 zone, where there is very strong declining trend/resistance. Any price action above the April 2015 high of 5283 would offer a straight run to challenge the Sept'2000 high of 6944. Right now.. that is 42% higher.


One of the most problematic of the EU PIIGS - Spain, ended the year strong, +663pts (7.6%). That was still not enough to generate a net yearly gain, with the IBEX net lower by -192pts (2.0%). Underlying price momentum is set to turn positive in January. First big upside target is the 12k threshold. Its notable that despite ongoing QE from the ECB, the Nov'2007 bubble high of 16040 is almost double the current level.


The Australian market ended the year very bullish, +216pts (3.9%) to 5719... making a 2016 gain of 7.0%. The ASX comp' is now trading at core declining trend/resistance. Any price action >5800 in early 2017 would be decisive, and offer first soft target of the April 2015 high of 5963. More broadly, if commodity prices can climb across 2017, the Aus' market will have a very good chance of challenging the Nov'2007 high of 6873. Things only turn bearish with price action <5k in summer 2017.

December summary

Most world markets ended the year on an especially bullish note, lead higher by Russia and Germany. China and Brazil struggled into year end, but the latter was still massively higher for the year.

2016 summary

All world equity markets saw a key mid term low in Jan/Feb'.

The more commodity related markets of Russia and Brazil saw exceptionally strong net yearly gains, whilst China and Spain struggled.

A fair number of world markets are only just seeing underlying price momentum start to turn positive, and that does offer another basic 3-5 months of upside.

Looking ahead

Another short four day week, but there is plenty scheduled...

T - PMI/ISM manu', construction
W - vehicle sales, ADP jobs, FOMC mins (2pm)
T - weekly jobs, PMI/ISM serv, EIA report
F - monthly jobs, intl' trade, factory orders

*the only fed officials - Evans and Lacker, are due on Fri'.

Your outlook for 2017

There is still time to submit your outlook for the year ahead. I'm looking for an end 2017 target for the sp'500, and any of your thoughts for specific matters, whether GDP, inflation, etc.

This is post number 1267 for the year. If you value my content, subscribe to me @, where I continue my intraday postings.

Sincerely.... good wishes for 2017.

yours... PD, aka... Philip... in London city

*the next post on this page will appear Tuesday Jan'3rd 2017 @ 7pm EST

Another market year concludes

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -10pts @ 2238. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled lower by -0.4%. VIX settled +5.0% @ 14.04. Near term outlook is still leaning weak. Any price action <2230 would offer a straight run to the 2205/00 zone, before the broader bullish trend resumes.




The market opened a little higher, but once again, the gains didn't last more than a few minutes. There was sustained (if moderate) weakness across the day, with a late afternoon low of 2233. The closing hour was naturally pretty choppy.

VIX closed notably higher for a sixth consecutive day.

The most bearish case for next week would be further weakness to around the sp'2200 threshold, which would equate to VIX in the 15.50/17.00 zone. The key 20 threshold still looks out of range for at least a month.

As for the outlook for 2017...

The outlook for 2017 is shrouded in cloud, but isn't it always?

Goodnight from an icy and foggy London

*the weekend post will appear Sat' 12pm EST, and will detail the world monthly indexes. Frankly, its my most important post of the month.... and year.