Volatility fractionally lower

With the main indexes climbing moderately again, the VIX was naturally unable to rally, and closed fractionally lower, -0.7% @ 14.78. Daily charts are offering no turn in the VIX, and the 12s could easily be hit within the next week or two.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add, other than whilst the main market holds together, the VIX looks set to relentlessly melt lower. As we've seen a number of times this year, this 'melt lower' phase could last for some weeks.

VIX 12/11s look very viable later this month, not least if the market makes an attempt to break the May'22 high of sp'1687.

As many recognise, it remains an incredibly fearless market.

more later...on the indexes

Closing Brief

The market started the week with moderate gains, with the sp +8pts @ 1640, having traded between 1644/1637. Precious metals held gains of around 1%, but Oil was weak for much of the day, closing -0.4%. VIX saw minor noise, and remains in the lowly 14s.


sp'60min

Summary

Not the most exciting of days, but still, earnings season has begun with Alcoa (AA), and the market will have a hell of a lot of corp' data to contemplate for the rest of the month.
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*I remain on the sidelines overnight, will seek an index-long on any early Tuesday morning gap lower.
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the usual bits and pieces..across the evening

3pm update - weakness into the close

The market is holding moderate gains, with the sp +8pts @ 1640. The smaller cycle 15/60min charts are very much still offering some downside viability into Tuesday. Best bear case is the 1630/25 zone, but much higher levels still seem likely later in the week.


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

Best guess, a bit of a weakness into the close, but still closing somewhat higher.

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*I just don't like going long with the hourly charts as high as they currently are. I will again consider an index long, but will wait and see how we open early tomorrow.

Regardless, daily and weekly charts remain broadly bullish, absolutely no point in shorting the main market.


Alcoa (AA) earnings at the close.

Daily charts are suggestive of general upside. Very straight forward upside of 5% or so, to the 50 day MA in the $8.30s.


3.16pm.. sp'1539,, a close <1635 would open up a 'brief' Tuesday drop to 1625..and that'd be a reasonable level to jump in, at least from a 'permabear going long' perspective ;)

2pm update - baby bear flag?

The market has seen a small down cycle from sp'1644 to 1637, is that it for today? There still seems 'reasonable' chance of another wave lower to 1632/30. Precious metals holding gains >1%, whilst oil is still moderately weak.


sp'15min

Summary

Well, its entirely possible we'll just melt ALL the way into the close. Certainly, it makes zero sense to be considering any short trades after the weekly charts turned back upward last Friday.

This nonsense could easily rally for 'some weeks'.
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*I'm still waiting for somewhat lower levels - to go long, if not, then I won't get involved, at least not today.

1pm update - seeking a little more weakness

The market is still broadly climbing, and the current little wave lower is surely nothing for the bears to get excited about. A close <sp'1630 looks very unlikely, with the 1650/60s seemingly likely this week.


sp'15min

Summary

Not the most exciting of days, and indeed, this could be the style of trading for some weeks.
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*I remain on the sidelines, but am seeking to pick up an index-long position within the next hour or so. A low around 2.15/30pm today, seems likely, with meltup..into the close.
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VIX update from Mr T



So, a few are picking up some crash protection, although the $ amounts in involved are extremely small. Its not unusual, and really shouldn't be seen to mean anything.


1.30pm...market still looks like its due another tiny wave lower, 1632/30 area..by 2.30pm

At that level, i'll look to go long, not that i'm in a hurry!

12pm update - minor down cycle

The sp' has seemingly maxed out at 1644, at least for a few hours. Daily charts are offering the 1660s later this week, and with mid-sized QEs on Tue/Wed, bears are facing persistent problems.


sp'15min

sp'weekly8

Summary

Small scale cycle...clearly looks toppy, and the indexes might even go briefly red this afternoon, but I don't expect <1630 at the close.
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Weekly charts are sporting the second green candle now, and the 1660/70s look very viable this July.

For me, the only issue now is whether sp'1700s are hit before July ends.
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Video bonus...macro-econ chat...from Gordon T Long



I've not even watched yet, but I'm sure its worth viewing, when you have the time.

Time for lunch !

11am update - broadly higher

The market is comfortably holding the sp'1640s. Mid-term upside into August looks to be somewhere in the 1700s. Precious metals are holding gains of ove r1%, but Oil is surprisingly weak, but still above the big $100 threshold (the new floor?).


sp'60min3

VIX'daily3

Summary

VIX is a touch higher, but really, that is surely to be just dismissed as 'noise'. With the current downside momentum, VIX looks set to be weak for at least another few weeks.
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So, sp'1643, and its just another summers day...bear weather....not.
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*I remain on the sidelines, am in no hurry to go long, and most definately...not intending to short the main market any time soon.


11.32am  There is some weakness, we're due a small down cycle.

Obvious gap to fill @ sp'1632.

Indexes could in theory go briefly red, but still..primary trend is UP.
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10am update - morning rally

The market has already broken into the sp'1640s. Regardless of any intra-day pull back - even if the indexes were to go red, the near term trend looks very bullish. Bears should keep in mind significant QE both tomorrow and Wednesday.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

For those still on the short side, this morning is offering virtually nothing of hope.

The bears appear almost entirely powerless, and it could be a relatively quiet trading week, one of algo-bot melt, and the QE will no doubt help.
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*Having bailed on busted short positions last Friday, I am content on the sidelines. I will consider an index-long on the next small pull back, but an entry <1630 looks unlikely.

Indeed sp'1630 will be good support this week.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are higher, sp +10pts, we're set to open in the low 1640s. Precious metals are somewhat higher, Oil is a weaker, but still in the $102s, and the USD is moderately weak.


sp'60min

Summary

Well, the week is set to begin as expected.

There seems little reason why we won't close in the 1640s, and be in the 1660s later this week.
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Video from Oscar...



stay tuned