With equities unable to hold the key low of sp'2099, the VIX broke into the 15s (intra high 15.49), settling +7.7% at 14.71. Near term outlook offers further equity weakness to the low sp'2080s, which should equate to VIX in the 16s.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
In the scheme of things, the VIX remains very low, and considering the recent equity price action, a break above the 20 threshold looks unlikely in the near term.
Best guess.. Friday.. sp'2080.. with VIX 16s.
A 'Greek can-kick' looks due in the near term... and that should offer renewed equity upside.
US equities closed significantly lower, sp -18pts @ 2095 (intra low 2093). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.9% and -1.0% respectively. Near term outlook is for further weakness to the low sp'2080s, a break into the 2070s will be very difficult. Renewed strength looks due next week.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour was somewhat weak
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Little to add... on what was a day for the bears. :)
US equity indexes look set to settle somewhat significantly lower, with the sp' having hit a new cycle low of 2093. There looks to be viable downside to the low 2080s Friday.. although with threat of an initial positive open. VIX is reflecting some moderate market concern, +10% in the low 15s. Metals/Oil remain notably weak.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
A little bounce.. but in the scheme of things it should be nothing for the bears to be concerned about.
The only issue is whether the market opens lower tomorrow... or moderate bounce.. and then resumes into the weekly close.
Regardless of the exact close... a day for the bears.
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notable weakness: INTC -1.4% in the $32s... larger price structure is a rather bearish H/S
The market has seen another little wave lower, decisively taking out the key low of sp'2099. Next key support is in the low 2080s. VIX is confirming the declines, with a break into the mid 15s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$9, with Silver -2.4%.
London buses always travel in packs
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
*there looks to be viable upside into the VIX 16s, anything in the 17s looks... difficult.
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... back from a little venture in the outside world... and indeed, we have a break under sp'2100.
Now its a case of the market coping with the monthly jobs data, the OPEC meeting, and more Greek 'issues'.
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US equities remain moderately weak, with the sp -11pts @ 2102. Further weakness looks probable this afternoon, with a viable daily close somewhere in the 2095/90 zone.. along with VIX 15s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$9, whilst Oil is lower by a very significant -2.8%.
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*metals continue to perform especially badly considering the weak USD. Gold looks set to test the next support zone of $1170/68. If that fails to hold.. then 1150s tomorrow. I remain short Gold - via GLD, am looking to exit into the weekend.
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Well, the battle continues... current price action/structure is leaning bearish into tomorrow morning.
I am guessing we'll take out the 2099 low before the close of today.
US equities remain broadly weak, with the bears battling to break <sp'2099. VIX is holding gains of 8% in the upper 14s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$10, with Silver -2.1%. Oil is sig' weak ahead of the Friday OPEC meeting, -2.2% in the $58s.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Certainly the intraday swings are really churning many of the day-traders to pieces.
Best guess... a break <2099... at least to 2090... with the low 2080s more viable tomorrow.. along with VIX 16s.
From there... another Greek can-kick looks due.
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Guest on CNBC-Europe
It is pretty laughable that we're already seeing talk of QE2 from the ECB! QE1 is set to last 'at least' until Sept'2016, but hell, why not start QE2 before the first PRINT run is complete? Crazy times.
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VIX update from Mr T.
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time for a cool drink.. on a warm summers day in the city.
US equities are seeing some notable swings, from an opening low of sp'2101 to 2112, and are now starting to slide again. First soft target is the double floor of 2099... if that fails (which seems likely).. the door will be wide open to the low 2080s. Metals and Oil remain significantly weak.. despite a broadly weak USD.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
re: VIX.. opening black-fail candle.. but we're seeing a sharp spike floor bullish candle in the 10am hour.
A move into the 15s would clarify the low sp'2080s are due... which should equate to VIX 16s.
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*to be clear though, I do expect yet another 'last minute Greek can-kick deal'.. although right now, that does not seem likely until very late Friday or sometime over the weekend.
A move from the sp'2080s to 2160/80 zone remains very probable.. considering recent price action.. which simply is not particularly bearish.
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notable weakness, energy stocks, CHK -3.5%, RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -1.5%
11.06am.. Market snap underway.... VIX 15s due.. and sub sp'2099.....
11.28am.. chop chop.. sp -9pts... 2104.... close to the border.... eyes on the VIX !
US equities are moderately lower, and with the failed break/hold above resistance, it would seem the low sp'2080s will be hit before the weekend. USD has recovered from early lows, -0.1% @ DXY 95.40s. Metals are weak, Gold -$7, with Silver -1.7%. Oil is similarly weak, -1.8%.
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*metals are continuing to perform particularly badly, considering the weak USD.
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VIX is displaying only a little market concern.. equity bears are going to need to see the 15s today.. to offer hope of further downside tomorrow.
... awaiting a break of the 2099 double low.
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notable weakness, copper miners, FCX/TCK, both lower by -2%
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10.02am.. opening black-fail candle on the VIX...... urghhh....
What a lousy fail for the bears.
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*IMF suggest US Fed delay any rate rises until next year. Was that a mere suggestion.. or an order? Hmmm
10.15am.. It remains a mess.. with a clear reversal... but seriously.. who the hell would be buying right now?
Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -9pts, we're set to open at 2107, the door is re-opening to a washout in the low 2080s. The USD continues to fall, -0.6% @ DXY 94.80s. Metals are a touch weak, Gold -$2... whilst Oil is broadly flat.
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
It would seem yesterday's upside break above resistance was indeed a FAILED break.
So... original target of the low 2080s is back on... along with VIX 16s.
To be absolutely clear though, I do not believe a key mid-term top is yet in.
Best guess.... sp'2080s with VIX 16s... and then upside into the FOMC.... possibly early July... to sp'2160/80s.... and then a major rollover across the summer/early autumn.
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Update from a typically loud Oscar
I find it interesting that Oscar seems a little concern about 'if market fails to make a new high'.
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Keep in mind that tomorrow will be a more important day, with not only the monthly jobs data, but the bi-annual OPEC meeting... where Oil might see a major one day drop as supply will not likely be cut.
Further, unless Greece agree a deal before the market close, there will be a rather huge aspect of 'who wants to dare hold long across the weekend?'.
Enjoy your Thursday!
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9.34am.. the sp'2099 double low.. set to be taken out... which will likely clarify that the low 2080s are due.
Regardless of any weakness across the next few days, the sp'500 still looks set for new historic highs in the coming weeks. The bigger weekly and monthly cycles will both be offering the 2160/70s in mid/late June. However, a sig' correction looks increasingly due this summer/early autumn.
sp'weekly
sp'monthly
Summary
A tag of the upper bollinger on both the weekly and monthly cycles looks very due within the next few weeks.
Maybe we'll max out around the FOMC of June 17th.. or this will drag out a little beyond the July 4th holiday period.
In either case, a sig' wave lower does look probable later this summer/early autumn. Right now.. anything under the Oct' low of sp'1820 looks almost impossible. Instead, a decline from 2150/2200 or so... down to 2000/1950 looks far more realistic.
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USD continues to cool
USD, daily2
A straight up run to new multi-year highs (>100.71) appears unlikely in the near term. Instead.. continued cooling to the 92/90 zone looks more probable.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs report, productivity/costs, and the latest Nat' Gas inventories.
*Fed official Tarullo will speak at lunch time, although I'm doubtful anyone will be listening (Dudley on Friday will be far more important).
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US equities closed notably positive, sp +4pts @ 2114 (intra high 2121).
The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by a significant 1.2% and
1.0% respectively. Near term outlook is mixed, with new historic highs
due in some (certainly not all) indexes into the next FOMC of June
17th.
sp'daily5
Dow
Summary
Little to add.
Broader market remains choppy. There remains threat of the sp'2080s (if minor).. but renewed upside into the next FOMC looks highly probable.
The sp'2160/80s look due before the next realistic chance of a rollover.
