Friday 2 September 2016

Moderate swings to start the month

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp' u/c @ 2170 (intra low 2157). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.5% and u/c respectively. VIX settled +0.4% @ 13.48. Near term outlook threatens the sp'2190/2200s... but will clearly be dependent upon the jobs data.




So.. another day where we saw moderate weakness.... and with yet another latter day recovery to close broadly flat.

Yes, I was surprised to see the Jackson Hole low of 2160 broken (if only marginally). Yet broadly... this is the same type of price action we've seen for almost two months.

Considering the larger weekly/monthly cycles... we're still inclined to push higher, not least as the Fed will still likely hold off from another rate rise until the Dec' FOMC.

A new month... a new candle


Note the key 10MA has now jumped to around 2075. Unless we're trading in the 2060/50s, I just can't take any bearish talk/outlooks seriously. Unlike last year, we're no longer in a trading range... having seen new historic highs in all three of the headline indexes.

Similarly, other world markets all appear headed higher into year end... and I'll cover that in depth this weekend.

Goodnight from London