Saturday 21 November 2015

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

US equity indexes saw powerful net weekly gains, ranging from 3.6% (Trans, Nasdaq), 3.3% (sp'500, Dow), to 2.5% (R2K). With a number of bullish engulfing candles, the outlook remains broadly bullish into year end. New historic highs in the Dow, Sp'500, and Nasdaq look due

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes


A powerful net weekly gain of 66pts (3.3%) to 2089 (intra high 2097). Having almost fully negated last week's very significant decline, we now have a very secure higher low of 2019. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is ticking upward again, with viable upside all the way into Jan' 2016. Upper bollinger is at 2160... so the equity bulls have plenty of room to break new historic highs.

Best guess - broad upside to new historic highs.. 2150/70 by end year.. with the 2200s probable by mid January.

Nasdaq comp'

The tech' settled +177pts @ 5104, a mere 127pts shy of the July high. New historic highs look due. Once a monthly close in the 5200s, next levels are 5500, then 6K.


The mighty Dow clawed back upward, settling +578pts in the 17800s. A weekly close in the 18000s looks due.. and that will open the door to new historic highs (>18351) before year end. Equity bears have zero reason to be bearish unless sustained trading under the 17K threshold.

NYSE comp'

The master index settled +2.8% in the 10400s. Further upside to the 10700/900s looks due before year end. Hyper bulls should be seeking sustained action >11300s in spring 2016.


The second market leader swung from a Monday open of 1140 to settle the week at 1175. A break into the 1200s will offer a year end close in the 1220/40 zone. The June high of 1296 still looks a real challenge before March 2016.


The 'old leader' - Trans, saw a bullish engulfing candle for the week, +3.6% in the 8300s. First upside target is the 200dma in the low 8400s. Equity bulls need to break >8800 to confirm renewed broad upside into spring 2016.


It sure was a very contrasting week.

The gains were largely expected though, as the sp' floored just a touch under the primary target zone of 2025/20..  where the 38% fib retrace (of the 1871/2116 wave) was lurking at 2022.

Every micro retrace is being bought, with the market set to battle broadly higher into year end, and probably... across into late spring 2016.

Looking ahead

It will be a short 3.5 trading day week. Trading vol' will doubtless be especially light, with price action very muted, aside from any opening gaps.

M - PMI manu', existing home sales
T - Q3 GDP (rev'1), case shiller HPI, consumer con', Richmond fed
W - Durable Goods orders, weekly jobs, pers' income/outlays, PMI serv', new home sales, consumer sent', EIA report.

F - early close @ 1pm EST.

Back on Monday

Powerful net weekly gains

It was a powerful week for the US - and most other world equity markets, with the sp' +66pts (3.3%) at 2089. The market has a very secure floor of sp'2019, and regardless of any sporadic minor retrace, the 2100s look due... with new historic highs >2134 before year end.



So, last weeks declines have been effectively negated...and we're set (as originally expected) to rally into December.. and broadly into late spring 2016.

I realise some of you don't want to hear that kind of talk, but that is how I see it.

Update on trader JC

I've not seen any one else post on it.. but I checked today...

It seems the campaign to cover his $106k loss has been cancelled. I'd guess those who already contributed will get refunded.

Goodnight from London

*the weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +7pts @ 2089 (intra high 2097). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.3% and 0.7% respectively. Near term outlook offers threat of a sporadic minor retrace, but broadly, new historic highs in some indexes look probable before year end.


Nasdaq comp'


*it is notable that the Nasdaq is very close - just over 2%, from breaking the July 20th' high of 5231.

The sp' looks set for the 2100s before end month... with new historic highs before year end... even if the Fed raise rates.

Sustained action under the 2000 threshold looks unlikely for a very considerable time.

a little more later..