With the main indexes seeing renewed weakness in the closing hour, the VIX closed +16% @ 19.41. Near term trend remains clearly to the upside. The big unknown is whether the VIX can start to put in a few daily closes in the 20s. something we've not seen since June 2012.
vix'60min
vix'daily3
Summary
The VIX climbed into the close, and saw further gains in the brief 15mins of AH trading. A Tuesday open in the low 20s looks very viable, and indeed, the only issue now is whether the VIX can hold the 20s for some 'days', or will it just collapse lower, as it has done over and over again for the past 15 months.
More than anything, equity doomer bears should be seeking a weekly VIX close in the 20s. If that is achieved, it would be suggestive something has finally changed, since the ongoing equity rally began in Oct'2011.
So..regardless of how we trade tomorrow, how we close the week will be VERY interesting to see.
The main indexes closed with moderate declines, with the sp -14pts @ 1676. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both closed -1.1%. Near term remains moderately weak, but the longer this goes on, the bears are using up their time quota. The sp'1700s remain relatively close.
sp'60min
Summary
*certainly, the closing hour was somewhat weak, but still..the bears never managed to break into the 1660s today, and considering the overnight futures, I'm still seeing the bears as weak. Volume was light. There is still no real selling going on.
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Just what will it take for the headline indexes to see a 1% daily decline? It seems such a difficult task.
*one good thing the bears do have...no significant QE-pomo until next Tuesday. A full 5 trading day window for the bears to push lower.
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The bears continue to struggle just to hold moderate index declines, with the sp -0.4% @ 1683. The VIX is reflecting continued concern, +10% in 18.50s. Metals are cooling down a touch, Gold +$10. Oil remains moderately weak, -0.5%.
sp'60min
Summary
Considering the hourly MACD cycle, this just doesn't look good at all for the bears. There is very significant risk of a jump (on any speculative rumour) higher into the 1690s.
It really comes down to whether you consider it a one party state.
If you do, then you know its all theatre..in which case..you also know how it ends for the equity bears.
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The bigger weekly charts are still offering what is a pretty big bull flag. The 10 MA continues to be a pretty key zone for the bulls to hold.
sp'weekly8
Yet..the only real clarifying move would be a break <1627. That would be first lower lower since Oct'2011. Right now...sub 1627 just doesn't look likely.
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3.39pm..market is teasing the bears at sp'1680
sp'5min
A daily close in the 1670s would be kinda interesting, but really, bears need <1675
3.49pm.. VIX 19s..been a fair while since we saw that!
Bull rats are selling into the close..makes for a change, but still.....the Thursday low of 1670 is important to take out.
The market continues to attempt to battle back upward, with most indexes just 0.6% lower. VIX is still +10% in the mid 18s, which is certainly well above the average for the last few months. Metals remain holding almost all of the earlier gains, Gold +$12.
sp'60min
Summary
All things considered, it remains a very subdued market. The opening index declines have been cut in almost half.
As ever..the issue is whether we'll get a closing hour mini ramp...with the indexes closing almost green, which would make for a rather bullish daily floor-spike candle.
Considering the hourly MACD cycle, bulls have a chance of that.
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The main indexes are moderately lower, with the sp @ 1681. VIX is higher by 10% @ 18.50. Equity bears need a renewed push lower into the close, with sp'1660s and VIX 19s. Metals are higher, Gold +1%, with Silver +2.8%.
sp'60min
Summary
The open was kinda interesting, but really, these sort of declines just aren't that much.
How can anyone get even remotely bearish with this sort of price action? There simply isn't much here for the bears to get excited about.
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*I'm tired of meddling with the indexes, and will probably leave them alone for the rest of this week..if not the month.
The main indexes are moderately lower by around 0.4%. The bearish hopes of a major down day have again been dashed, and despite a somewhat shaky market, underlying momentum remains positive. VIX is 9% higher, but is showing a very clear black-fail candle on the daily chart.
sp'daily5
vix'daily3
Summary
I can understand the mood out there in bear land is increasingly turning stinky, not least with sp'1684s.
Once again we've seen a simple failure at the open for the bears, as mostly clearly seen via the VIX hourly/daily charts.
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*I exited short-indexes early this morning. Am now short the metals, via SLV. Am looking for some weakness across Tue/Wed, perhaps the press released on the FOMC minutes will help.
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The main indexes opened weak, but there is simply a near complete absence of real downside power, and the indexes could easily close green - no doubt helped by today's QE-pomo. Once again equity bears are pathetically weak.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
Haven't we been through this a hundred times already..this year alone?
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Bears are still weak, and fighting weekly/monthly trends that are still relentlessly pushing upward.
*ohh sure, there are those touting we'll max out around 1740/60..but as I keep asking..WHY would we stop there?
The debt ceiling will be raised, the QE will continue. Nothing else is important.
The main indexes are lower, but there is again the usual lack of downside power/kick. Sp' is only -0.7%, and already trying to claw back to the 1680s. Similarly, the VIX hourly/daily is already offering a black-fail candle to the equity bulls.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
Yes, it is an interesting open, but there really isn't any major concern yet.
Bears still look weak, and the 1660s now look difficult to hit. Again, its just pathetic how weak the equity bears are. Can't even manage a 1% decline.
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*I'm out, exited index shorts at sp'1679.
Bears look simply lame. Complete lack of downside power..and the VIX is suggesting we could close green.
10.19am.. How many times do the bears need to see an opening black candle on the VIX to get the hell out ?
Ohh, I'm guessing ..more times.
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Another failed open for the bears, and with sig QE today of around $3bn, do not be surprised if we flip green later today.
Good morning. Futures are significantly lower, sp -14pts, we're set to open around 1676. Equity bears need to take out the Thursday low of 1670, which will open up the 1665/60 resistance zone. Metals are higher, Gold +$8. USD is resting on the big 80 threshold.
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
*Daily lower channel is offering 1655, but really, its been a long while since we saw that degree of one day decline.
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So...Fridays closing gains are going to be negated from the start, and we're set to have an early morning test of 1670 by 11am.
It will indeed be very important for the equity bears to break into the 1660s this morning. If that can be achieved, there is potential for a lot more.
Market is obviously somewhat edgy by the latest Boehner/Obama comments on the debt ceiling.
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RE: VIX, The VIX high last week was 18.71. A daily close in the 19s today would certainly make things rather interesting.
*I remain short the indexes, but will look for an exit later today, and then re-assess.
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Naturally, Mr Permabull is touting 'Do not fall in love with the downside'....
Hmm, although I agree with his outlook on Gold.
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9.41am.. looks like we'll floor around sp'1667/65 within a few hours.
VIX has broken last Monday's spike high, so..thats kinda interesting.
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*I'm still short the indexes, but I will indeed look to bail somewhere in the mid 1660s.
