Closing Brief

Another very quiet day in market land, but once again, with new historic highs. The sp' settled -2pts @ 2067 (intra high 2074). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.4% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook remains bullish into the sp'2100s.


sp'60min

Summary

*earnings due.. HPQ.
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Little to add...

In many ways, the market should just close for the remainder of the year.

The NYSE could just add 3% to every stock.. and tell everyone to 'enjoy a long holiday', and 'come back Friday Jan'2nd'.  Its just a thought.
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HPQ Q3 earnings... $1.06.. in-line, but revenue was a little lighter than market expected. Outlook is reasonable, and there is little reason why Mr Market won't eventually bid HPQ higher into next year.

Initial stock reaction is -3% or so, but really... earnings were unquestionably fine.
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A daily wrap at 8pm EST.

3pm update - just another day for the bulls

With new historic highs already achieved this morning, it has been just another day for the equity bull maniacs. Even a retrace to the sp'2000 threshold looks increasingly unlikely until Jan/Feb... before renewed 'hyper ramp'.


sp'daily5

Summary

*Oil remains very weak, -2.4%, Oil futures now in the $73s,.




Copper is similarly weak, -5 cents.. around $2.95. a deflationary target would be 2.30/20s by the spring.
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Its cold, and with the next 'warm sunny day' at least 5 months away.. I am not in the best of moods.   

...as ever though...I welcome all messages.
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Notable weakness, DRYS, -2.7% @ $1.46.. I'll detail more on that shipper on my 'fair value' page after the close.

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back at the close.

2pm update - hyper bullish Transports

With Oil prices remaining broadly weak - not least ahead of the Thursday OPEC meeting, the transportation index is showing notable strength, now higher by 19.8% across just 30 trading days. Incredible gains... but with much higher levels still to come.


Trans, daily

Summary

So... the Tranny is now in the 9200s.. and 10k is just another 8% or so higher.

Trans 10k will surely equate to R2K >1212.. .and thus.. is an extremely bullish sign.

If sp'2200s by the early spring, then a straight hyper-run to 3k... very probable.

*ohh, and I realise that is what some of you do not want to hear, but I ain't painting a bearish scenario just to please those with a closed mind.
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Notable weakness, Oil, -1.9%...

USO,weekly

If Oil to the low $60s, then USO to 22 or so.. by the spring.
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stay awake... if you can :)

12pm update - chop chop

US equities see a collapse wave.. from a new historic high of sp'2074 to 2064. Clearly, the end is nigh.. yes? Meanwhile... VIX is unable to even hold the 13s. Oil remains very weak ahead of the Thursday OPEC meeting, -1.7%.


sp'60min

Summary

*broader downside target for Oil remains $65/60. Even the Cramer was touting $40s this morning. Has he been watching Carboni videos.. or just copying me?
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It sure is quiet out there.... and other than a few individual stocks on the move (namely, NFLX, and Oil/gas drillers).. there is little to add.
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VIX update from Mr T.



For those especially bored...

In the land of fire and ice...


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time for tea... back at 2pm.

11am update - minor chop

Equities pull back from the opening highs, but price action remains generally muted. There is little reason to expect any dynamic moves this week.. not least anything to the downside. VIX is battling in the 12s. Oil has reversed.. from +0.4% to -0.7%


R2K, daily

Summay

The R2K remains a key index to watch. Yes, it is currently a touch red, but it did break into the 1190s earlier.. a mere 2% from new historic highs.

As I will keep saying... once a break into the 1220s.. it will bode strongly for the broader market across next year.

Notable weakness, oil/gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -1.3%... no doubt due to the morning reversal in Oil, now -0.7%
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back at 12pm

10am update - another set of new highs

US equities open moderately higher, with new historic highs on the Trans and sp'500 (2074). With the USD a little lower, -0.2%, commodities are being helped, Gold +$2, with Oil +0.9%. Rest of the day will likely be one of continued minor chop.. with a slight upward bias.


sp'daily5

Summary

A touch of weakness.. as I type... but still.. new highs are NEW highs, and it merely continues the broader hyper-ramp from mid October.

Frankly, why would anyone want to be getting involved this week anyway? Sure, individual stocks or commodities, but overall.. the indexes are merely clawing higher on holiday volume.

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Notable weakness... NFLX, -3%. A break of $330 will open up $300 within a month or two.

Not so pretty for this momo stock, but hey.. it does make a profit, has a huge customer base, and should be fine for some years to come. Best guess... 300 before 400 !
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10.09am.. Ohh the humanity... sp -2pts... any top callers out there?

What I find endlessly amusing... those who dare call a top.. on the very day the market makes a new historic high.

The fact it is a holiday week, makes it even more bullish.
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NFLX -3.4%... Hmmm

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open at 2074. Metals are a touch weak, Gold -$1. Oil is attempting another bounce, +0.4%. Market is likely to remain increasingly subdued, ahead of the Thursday holiday.


sp'daily5

Summary

*GDP (rev'1): 3.9%.  vs  3.3% expected
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So... GDP comes in okay, and we're set to break new index highs at the open.

There remains little reason why trading activity will not be even more quieter today than yesterday.

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Update from Mr Carboni


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Have a good Tuesday

Who's Right?

Another quiet day for the US equity market, but with a notable new historic high in the 'old leader' - Transports of 9177. The giant 10k threshold is set to be broken in early 2015... which would be highly suggestive of the sp'2200s.

Trans, daily

R2K, monthly

Summary

So... another new high in the 'old leader', set for the giant 10k threshold early next year. That will surely also mean the R2K breaks the double top of 1212/13, which itself will mean the broader market has very considerable upside still ahead.

I'm well aware many will be calling a key top in the sp'2100s.. but why would it stop there? Sure, a retrace back to the giant 2000 level would be natural - whether next month, or Jan/Feb, but it will merely be another one of those minor pull backs.

Once we're in the sp'2200s - which seems highly probable by March/April, it should then bode for a straight up move to 3k.

Call it 'crazy talk', a 'twisted sign of capitulation', or whatever you want, but that is how I see things.


VIX remaining subdued

VIX, daily3

If a retrace to sp'2000, then clearly VIX will climb into the upper teens... but that now seems more likely in Jan/Feb.
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Closing update from Riley

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Looking ahead

Amongst a few bits and pieces tomorrow, we have GDP (first rev').. market is expecting a slight downward revision from 3.5% to 3.3%. So long as the number comes in >3%.. market should be fine. Anything under <2.5% would be a problem, but then.. that is equally bullish.. since rates would then be anticipated to be increased at a later date.. yes?
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Goodnight from London