Friday 7 December 2018

Ugly end to the week

US equity indexes closed powerfully lower, sp -62pts (2.3%) at 2633. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -3.9% and -2.0% respectively. VIX settled +9.6% at 23.23. Near term outlook offers a challenge of the Feb' low of sp'2532, with secondary target of the 2460s.




US equities opened in chop mode, as the mainstream tried to run with the 'weak jobs data is Goldilocks for stocks' mantra. That didn't last more than 30 minutes, with the market swinging lower, and then spiraling into the afternoon. The closing hour was ugly, breaking a new intraday low of 2623, just 12pts above the Thursday low.

Volatility opened in the 19s, but then spiked upward to 24.71, settling in the low 23s. Whilst the s/t cyclical setup does threaten a bounce, the daily cycles argue against it. A test of the Feb' low of sp'2532 appears very probable next week. The only issue is whether we see the sp'2400s, which would arguably be enough to spook the Fed to stall the next rate hike.

Another day closer to winter solstice
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @

Goodnight from London
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