Volatility slips across the week

With equities on the slide, the VIX built gains, but they were never anything of significance. The VIX settled +3.2% @ 17.55 (range 18.41/16.44). Near term outlook is for new equity highs... which should equate to VIX in the low teens.. perhaps 12/11s, if sp'2125/50 zone by early Feb.


VIX daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*across the week, the VIX declined -1.3%
 --

Little to add.

It would seem sp'1992 was a short term low.. and VIX looks set to remain under the 20 threshold at least until after the next opex.

The weekly chart is offering the fourth spiky top candle... and that does not bode well for the equity bears. Despite the many concerns (not least about looming fed rate rises)... the VIX can never hold above the key 20 threshold for very long.
--

more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -17pts (intra low 2038) @ 2044. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.1% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers another sig' push higher in opex week.. to the sp'2100s. Metals held sig' gains into the close, Gold +$12... whilst Oil remained weak, -1.4% or so.


sp'60min

Summary

*It will be important early next week that the market holds the lower gap zone... around sp'2025. If that is lost.. there is viable threat of another wave lower (call it a C.. or whatever)... to the 200dma in the 1960s. That scenario does seem unlikely though.
--


...and the first full trading week of 2015 comes to a close.

Certainly, the bears had the first two days of the week in their favour.. with a cycle low of sp'1992, but the rebound was powerful.. and the sp'2100s look viable into next Friday's opex.

Have a good weekend
--

the usual bits and pieces to wrap up the week... across the evening.

3pm update - clawing upward

US equities look set to continue to claw higher into the weekend, from a morning low of sp'2038... a close in the 2050s seems very viable.. with VIX 16s. Metals are holding rather sig' gains, Gold +$13. Oil remains weak, -1.1%


sp'60min

Summary

An interesting week... we broke lower than I had expected... but the strong rebound from sp'1992 was not a surprise.

No matter how twitchy the market might get... the underlying broader upward trend remains the case.
-

back at the close... to wrap up the week

2pm update - market wants to rally into the close

US equities remain moderately weak, but the smaller 15/60min cycles are offering upside into the remainder of today. A daily close in the sp'2050s will still make for a massive bullish recovery.. from the Tue' low of 1992. VIX remains a key tell... and is set to close moderately red... in the 16s.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

No doubt some were getting overly excited this morning.. but any close >2052.. will make for a clear 3% net gain since the Tuesday afternoon low.
-

Notable weakness, airlines, DAL/UAL, both lower by over -2%
-

*I remain long.. seeking a somewhat exit than this.. will hold into next week.
-

back at 3pm

12pm update - upper gap filled

The upper end of the rather large price gap @ sp'2042 has been filled. The smaller 15/60min cycles are offering a latter day rally. VIX remains only a little higher.. and is not supportive that a lower high (sp'2064) has been put in. Broad upside into next opex seems probable... to the sp'2100s.


sp'60min

R2K,15min

Summary

*the actual $spx chart does not properly show the price gap... R2K is clearer... or SPY (but I don't chart that... I can't cover it all!).
--

After a hyper ramp from sp'1992 to 2064.... this morning's cool down is not exactly unexpected.

Regardless... we look set for higher levels.
--

VIX update from Mr P.


--
time to cook, back at 2pm

11am update - time for a late morning turn

US equities continue to slide, but its the typical turn time of 11am.. and considering the previous two days.. the market is due to turn back upward. VIX is higher, but only +5%... and still looks vulnerable to closing red.. in the 16/15s. Oil remains weak, -1.8%


sp'60min

VIX'15min

Summary

An interesting opening 90mins.. but really. anyone seriously want to get overly bearish here?

Arguably, it is merely a 'last ditch' place for remaining shorts to exit.. and for anyone who wants to get long.. to jump aboard.. for opex week.
-

Notable strength: Seagate (STX) +1.1%

10am update - opening chop

With a Goldilocks jobs number of 252k, equities open with some minor mixed chop. Despite the weakness, VIX is barely positive, and looks set to close the week in the 16/15s. Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$7. Oil is sliding, -1.7%


sp'60min

Summary

So.. opening weakness... but given a few hours... we'll likely turn positive... and manage the third consecutive net daily gain.
-

Price structure on the hourly is a bullish F flag... there is little reason why market will be able to break <2050... and remain there.
-

Notable weakness, retail, M, and SHLD, both -3% or so.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower (ahead of the jobs data), sp -7pts, we're set to open at 2055... still well above the 50dma of 2041/42. Metals are seeing a minor bounce, Gold +$5, whilst Oil is again on the slide, -0.7%


sp'60min

Summary

*posted before the jobs data, and no doubt, Mr Market might see a recovery between now and the open.
--

Well, a minor down open was always a minor threat, but I still expect the market to battle back higher later today.

Today is only day'3 in this latest cycle, and as many recognise, we could easily battle upward into next Fri' opex.

*a retrace back to the price gap of 2030 look VERY unlikely for least a week or two.
--

Update from an overly happy Mr C.


--
Thank the gods... its almost the weekend
-

8.31am... 252k net gains, headline rate drops to 5.6%

Arguably, a goldilocks number. Indexes clawing back upward.
--

sp' turns +1pt... 2063

A second powerful day for the bull manaics

The Wed' gains were interesting, but Thursday really showed the underlying upside power, with the sp'500 breaking into the 2060s.. a level almost unthinkable this past late Tuesday morning. The sp'2100s look highly likely within the near term.


sp'weekly7, rainbow

sp'monthly

Summary

*with a second day of strong gains, the weekly 'rainbow' candle has flipped from red to blue. What is clear... sp'1992 now makes for a very clear spike floor.
--

It has been a rather remarkable two days of gains. As has been the case in the previous two down waves, the rebounds are stronger.. and faster than the down waves.


Looking ahead

Friday will see the monthly jobs data.. market is seeking net gains of 245k, with a slightly lower headline jobless rate of 5.7%. Those estimates do not look overly bold, and I'd expect the data to come in better than expected.

There is also wholesale trade data.

*Fed official Lacker will be speaking on the economic outlook around 1pm... its possible that might be an extra reason for the market to move, with another tranche of short-stops in the 2070/80s. 
--


Good news is bad news?

Reading around today, I'm seeing a fair bit of chatter along the lines of 'ohh, the market will sell down on the jobs data'. Really? Today was only day'2 to the upside, and typically, this market can quite comfortably rally for 5-7 days. Even if the market opens somewhat lower tomorrow, considering the past two days of price action, a third consecutive daily gain looks highly probable.

*I am long the market, via the R2K. As ever.. with the weekend looming... I might well exit into the weekend, and then start afresh next Monday.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities saw a second day of increasingly strong gains, sp +36pts (1.8%) @ 2062. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by a significant 2.1% and 1.7% respectively. Near term outlook is for the sp'2100s.


sp'daily5

R2K

Summary

Little to add.

New historic highs look highly probable by next Friday's opex.
--

Closing update from Riley


--
a little more later...