Thanksgiving break

US equity indexes closed fractionally mixed, sp -1.9pts at 2597. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled +1.5% at 9.88. Near term outlook offers some cooling, with a basic target of sp'2589/82. More broadly, the 2640/50s appear probable before year end.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, with two notable new index historic highs in the Nasdaq comp' and R2K. There was a touch of weakness in the afternoon.

Volatility broke a new cycle low of 9.32, and settled in the upper 9s. A little burst to the 11/12s would not be a surprise. More broadly though, the key 20 threshold looks out of range for the remainder of the year. We've not seen a year without VIX >20 since 2005.
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A windswept November's late afternoon

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For my American readers out there... Happy Thanksgiving. To the rest of you.... enjoy the day off.

Goodnight from London
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