Volatility net lower for a second week

With the equity market continuing to rally from the pre-FOMC low of sp'1972 (with a new historic high of 2092)... the VIX is naturally very subdued, settling 0.9% @ 14.50. The 12/11s look viable into end year/January. Across the week, the VIX declined -12.1%.


VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*not surprisingly, there was a last minute 'whack the VIX' event.. as often happens into the weekend.

VIX'1min

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Weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is set for a bearish cross, with a viable 4-6 weeks of downside... reflecting an equity market that could easily be in the sp'2040/60 zone by late Jan/early Feb.

The next VIX spike will likely not break back above the key 20 threshold
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more later.... on the indexes

Closing Brief

Most US equity indexes closed higher for the seventh consecutive day, with new historic highs for the Dow, SP, and R2K. The sp'500 settled +6pts @ 2088. The two leaders - Trans/R2K closed higher by 0.2% and 0.7% respectively. Outlook is bullish in early January.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add.. on what has been an interesting... but naturally quiet holiday trading week.

Have a good weekend :)
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Meanwhile, over in Thailand... perhaps this is one way to get the market 'to da moon'?



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the usual bits and pieces to wrap up the week.. across the evening.

3pm update - 9 of 11

Since the sp'1820 floor of Oct'15, the market has rallied an extremely powerful 272pts (14.9%). This week will make for the 9th net weekly gain.. of 11 weeks. With the R2K now having broken out of a year long trading range (much like Transports across 2012)... much higher levels look due next year.


sp'60min

USO, 60min

Summary

*Oil trying to turn on the smaller hourly cycle... key level remains $20.53.
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Suffice to say... regardless of the exact weekly close.. its been another week for the bull maniacs, and even the pre-FOMC cycle low of sp'1972.. is now 6% lower.

Anyone seriously think we'll be trading under sp'2000 again any time soon?
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 back at the close.

2pm update - afternoon chop

US equities remain holding moderate gains... the rally @ day'7,  with new historic highs in the Sp'500, Dow, and today... the R2K. Metals are holding gains, Gold +$20, with Silver +2.3%. Energy remains very weak, Nat' gas -1.4%, with Oil -1.3%


R2K, daily

Summary

Not surprisingly, price action remains one of low vol', and with it being a holiday period, underlying momentum remains to the upside.

The sp'2100s are due...  monthly/weekly cycles are offering 2035/40 by mid Jan.

Notable strength: FCX +3%... although it remains highly vulnerable.. with Copper still set for the low $2s
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back at 3pm.

12pm update - holding moderate gains

US equities remain moderately higher, in what is day'7 of the wave from sp'1972... some 119pts (5.9%) lower. The R2K has put in a new historic high of 1215, next soft target is around 1250. VIX is in micro churn mode in the 14s. Energy remains weak, Nat' gas -1.3%, whilst Oil is -0.5%.


R2K, daily

USO, daily2, rainbow

Summary

*the 8th blue candle on the daily Oil/USO chart... building a floor... or churning a very large flag? I'm guessing Oil floored last week with a micro-double floor of USO $20.53/54.
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So.. a seventh day higher for most indexes... and there is little reason why this won't continue into early January.

Notable gains, GDX +2.8%... helped by another vain bounce in the metals, Gold +$20.

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VIX update from Mr T. (might appear)


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time to cook... back at 2pm

11am update - R2K issues the critical bullish signal

Having broken the double top of 1212/13, the R2K has broken a new historic high. This is (at least to me) only a marginally less bullish issue, than say... QE4 would be. First soft target zone is 1250.... but a straight run into the 1300s seems equally viable by early spring. R2K in the 1500s...and beyond...


R2K, daily

R2K, monthly

Summary

For those with eyes on the bigger picture... today is so very important to recognise.
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*I'm somewhat tired (hey, its Boxing day.. most of Europe is closed)... and it looks like snow might start falling over London city this evening.

10am update - awaiting a powerful signal

US equities open moderately higher, with the Sp'500 breaking a new historic high. Most notable, the R2K is set to break the July high of 1213.55. Once broken.. it will offer a powerful bullish signal for the ENTIRE market for 2015.


R2K, daily

Summary

*interesting price action in a number of areas, inc' Oil/gas, but for me...today.. is all about the R2K
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With metals seeing yet another bounce, the miners are similarly positive, ETF of GDX +3.1%
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stay tuned!


10.02am.... NEW HISTORIC high for the R2K.

Anyone not taking this index seriously... is going to have a real bad 2015.

Doomer bears.... beware.

First soft target... 1250/75 in Jan/Feb... the 1300s.

The 1500s look viable as early as mid summer.... how long until the mainstream start joking about 'R2K @ 2k' ? 

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp+4pts, we're set to open at 2085. Metals are sharply higher, Gold +$20. Oil is similarly on the rise, +1.4%.... set to break into the low $60s within the near term.


sp'daily5

Summary

Well, its an odd time of year... we're back.. but only for a day... the weekend is almost here :)

So... equities are set to open higher, and another set of new highs are viable, not least in the two leaders - Trans/R2K.
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Have a good Friday.