Thursday 7 March 2013

Volatility still melting lower

With the equity market largely trading sideways on near zero trading volume, the VIX merely declined a little further. The VIX closed -3.5% @ 13.06  It still seems likely to be some weeks, even a few months until VIX is back above the key 20 threshold.




If sp' can get stuck next week in the 1550/60s..then VIX 12s - but perhaps holding above the 12.08 low....and then it will probably be time to consider getting bearish for a multi-week down cycle.

More later ...on the indexes

Closing Brief

A very dull Thursday, where we again saw a little of the usual latter day algo-bot melt higher.  For the bears, this sort of day just makes this market nothing less than a nightmare. For the bulls..the closing gains sets up a gap straight into the 1550/60s tomorrow morning.



It looks like we're already seeing the bull flag confirmed..and a move into the 1550/60s looks very likely tomorrow.

I continue to see VERY disparate outlooks. Everything from sp'2500 to sp'500.

Anyway, lets see how we open tomorrow, as they day at a time.

*I merely holding Silver (long) overnight.

the usual things..later.

3pm update - chop into the close

There is no reason why market is going to do much in this closing hour. What it does do, is give everyone a chance to position ahead of the jobs data. Bulls should look for VIX to spike lower into the close in the 12s. Dollar remains a little weak.



Not much going on is there?

Hourly MACD cycle is pretty low now, plenty of potential for another stupid 12/15pts on the upside.

*I'll hold silver -via SLV, overnight..still looking for low 29s.

back after the close

2pm update - awaiting a little melt

The main indexes are basically flat lining, but as ever...a little minor algo-bot melt in the latter part of the day is often the case. Bulls can sustain a close down to 1537, and it'd make no difference. VIX is merely slipping sign of any floor yet.




Another relatively quiet day.

Watching clown finance channel 2 (bloomberg) earlier, one of their guest seemed resigned to sp'1550/60s, before the next pull back.

The big issue indeed low can the next wave go?

Best guess remains 1425/00, and that would probably take 4-6 weeks to complete.

SLV, daily2

I am long Silver again, and will hold overnight. First target remains the low 29s..which seems very reasonable within the next few days.

12pm update - sideways before another jump

The main indexes are holding moderate gains. The lower dollar is no doubt helping. VIX is also little lower, a close in the 12s looks very reasonable, perhaps 11s tomorrow (briefly)..if sp'1560s.



Suffice to say, it looks like a large multi-day bull flag on the hourly charts.

Assuming the Friday jobs data comes in at least 'reasonable', we'll probably be in the mid 1550s..if not the 1560s.

That'd be one way to send the remaining bears into a depression for the weekend.

more later...

VIX update, from Mr T

I have to say, no clear turn on the VIX daily cycle..yet. I certainly won't consider a VIX buy until next week.

10am update - morning chop

Good morning. Opening index gains, but market is still looking a little tired. Its quite likely we'll just churn sideways everyone waits for the Fridays jobs data. I'd have to guess we have a very significant chance of trading in the sp'1560s tomorrow.




A choppy start to the day.

Most notable so far, the USD is moderately lower.  Its due a 1-2 week down cycle, and that would really help prop' up the market into late March.

*I exited SLV and USO at the open (both gains)..and seeking to go long again later in the day.

Still a green rainbow

Regardless of how you might like to count the waves across the last few months, or even years, we unquestionably remain within an outright bullish trend. The weekly charts are now back to green, and the monthly is now in its third consecutive green month.

sp'weekly2, rainbow

sp'monthly3, rainbow


Sometimes simple is best..and that's partly why I will keep highlighting these 'rainbow' charts, that make use of the 'Elder Impulse System'.

Despite the 'hopes' of the doomer bears - not least myself, the primary trend has been upward for the past four years.

Perhaps even worse, - and to me, what remains remarkable, is that we've not had a decent multi-month down cycle since late summer 2011 Despite all of the underlying problems..and endless ticking econ-time bombs, the market has been holding itself together.

No doubt, its largely a result of the Fed, the HFT algo-bots, and the delusion in the mainstream that 'everything is gonna be okay'.

A somewhat disturbing thought to end the night....

This 'grand' multi-year up trend will of course eventually conclude, but I'm really starting to believe the cycle peak won't be for another 2-3 years, which at the current general rate of up trend, would mean we won't max out until around sp'2500/2750 in early 2016.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed mostly a little higher. The 'old leader' - Transports, was the exception, slipping  0.4% lower, but the underlying trend is still broadly higher. The immediate issue now for all indexes is whether the current up cycle is indeed a small fifth wave higher.





So..a bit of a choppy day, and only minor gains by the close. Hourly charts are suggestive of a bull flag, with upside to 1550/60s.


This remains the most bearish count I have in the near term.


 I suppose the bigger count (red) could easily be wrong. Yet, the small count does look rather good.

On any basis, we're probably in a fifth 'minor' wave higher - as part of a bigger wave that began last November @ sp'1343. 

What is clear, a break of that channel..offers downside to a reasonable target of 1425/00.

I believe its something to seriously consider, not least once we are trading in the 1550/60s across the next 3-5 days.

A little more later