With US equities closing significantly higher for the third consecutive day, the VIX remained in cooling mode (intra low 21.83), settling -7.5% @ 22.31. Near term outlook remains broadly bullish to the sp'1950/65 zone.. which will likely equate to VIX 20... if not a brief foray to the 19/18s.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffice to add, a third daily decline for the VIX.
The upper teens look probable by next Mon/Tuesday.
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This coming spring.. a break <sp'1810.. with VIX hyper-spiking into the 40/50s looks due.
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US equities closed significantly higher for the third consecutive day, sp +31pts @ 1926 (intra high 1930). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.6% and 1.5% respectively. Near term outlook remains broadly bullish, with next resistance to the 1950/65 zone.
sp'60min
Summary
closing hour action: micro chop... and nothing to give the bears any hope that Thursday will not see further gains.
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.. and a third day for the equity bull maniacs comes to a close.
Clearly, a fair few bears will have capitulated by now.. but not all. There are no doubt some more bears to grind out in the 1940/60 zone.
I realise some are seeking a test of the 2K threshold.. where the 200dma will soon be lurking.. along with a few other aspects - notably, the monthly 10MA, but to me.. that just seems too high.
The sp'500 has rallied 120pts (6.6%) across the past 21 trading hours, with the VIX cooling from 30 to the 22s. Current price momentum remains powerfully bullish, with the hourly cycle now offering the 1945/55 zone tomorrow.. with VIX 21/20s.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*VIX is again trying to break the down trend... need 23s to offer any chance of a minor retrace/bounce tomorrow.
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In terms of upside power, this is the strongest up wave since early October.
There will be VERY strong resistance around 1950/65.. and I currently intend to launch an initial short around there... but after this Friday's opex.
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notable movers...
CNX +15%, even the last of the great coal miners is catching a bid today.
FCX +13%, rife with debt problems... but for today.. its soaring
NFLX +5%, as the momo chasers temporarily re-appear.
TSLA +8%, as talk of model X increases
Its that time of the month where are due to see the latest FOMC minutes. Current price momentum remains extremely strong, and it would seem that a retrace (if any) is limited to no lower than the 1900 threshold. VIX is naturally still in cooling mode, -5% in the 22s.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*VIX hourly candle is trying to put in a floor. MACD cycle ticking back upward.. but still... at best.. a moderate rally.. before resuming to VIX 20.. if not the 19/18s next Mon/Tuesday.
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Even at the current rate.. an hourly bearish MACD cross in equities is out of range until late tomorrow.
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notable weakness...
energy stocks, RIG/SDRL, both higher by around 7%.. but then both are also on the disappear list
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Lets see what the algo-bots make of the press release..............
2.07pm.. nothing in there to spook the markets.
The old excuse of 'fed concern at economy. means rates ain't going up'.
Far from cooling after morning gains, the market continues to claw upward... now pushing for a daily close in the sp'1930s. That makes a hit of the 50dma, upper daily bollinger, weekly 10MA, and the 50% fib retrace of the down wave from Nov'2015.. now viable before the weekend. Incredible.
sp'daily5b
sp'weekly6
Summary
Well... a third day of gains is now a given... the only issue is whether we close in the 1910s, 20s... or 30s.
For those resolutely holding short.. this is obviously getting extremely painful.
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notable weakness... TVIX, daily
As the VIX has cooled from 30 to the 22s, TVIX has now declined from $13.58 to the upper 9s, a decline of roughly 30% in just 3.5 days. The low 8s look viable.
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back at 2pm.... when the latest FOMC mins will appear.
US equities are holding significant gains, as the door is now wide open to the sp'1940s. Right now, best case for the bull maniacs appears to be a 50% retrace of the down wave from last November.. aka.. 1964/65. Sustained action >1970 looks extremely difficult... almost as difficult as believing Oil supply will be cut.
sp'daily5b, fibs
VIX'daily3
Summary
*VIX now in the 22s... a test of the key 20 threshold looks a given.. and that probably equates to sp'1945/50.
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Suffice to add.. another 1% looks due... .maybe 2%. In theory... should max out early next week.. then some weeks of increasing chop.
US equities are holding significant gains for the third consecutive day. There are multiple aspects of resistance in the sp'1920s, and increasingly so in the 1945/55 zone. Metals are holding bounce gains, Gold +$10, with Silver +0.7%. Oil is unquestionably helping equities, currently +4.2% in the $30s.
sp'60min
sp'weekly6
Summary
*hourly RSI has not been this high since last September. Pretty extreme!
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Note the weekly MACD (green bar histogram) cycle, which will probably tick higher for another 3-4 weeks.
By mid March it'll be threatening a bullish cross... but I am guessing we'll then see a critical fail.
If I'm right... then it unravels rather severely.... way below 1810... at least to 1750/25... and probably the low 1600s .
If I'm wrong... then none of the price action since May'2015 will make any sense.
Not long to wait!
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Here in London city...
Its one of those days when you realise its still February.. and it can get pretty dark by 11am EST. Urgh
US equities are battling to build significant gains for the third consecutive day. Indeed, perhaps most notable is how the cheerleaders on clown finance TV are getting overly pleased that the market is actually able to string three positive days together. Sp'2K, now, right? That is what they are trying to convince themselves.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
Note the 50dma... and the upper daily bollinger on the equity chart, at the current rate of increase we'll hit that by Friday or more likely.. next Monday.
For me.. that will make for a VERY comfortable level to start hitting buttons.
Gold is bouncing $10... but still looks set to cool some more.. 1180/70 looks probable before a move to the $1300s.
GLD, daily
Underlying MACD cycle remains extremely high... a lousy place to be long. If Gold is to break back below the Dec'2015 low of $1045... then a bigger retrace to around $1150/40 (GLD 110/109) is arguably needed.
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*keep in mind.. there is no oil report this morning... due to the holiday.
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time to shop... back soon......
Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +12pts, we're set to open at 1907. USD is broadly flat in the DXY 96.80s. Metals are seeing a bounce, Gold +$5, with Silver +0.2%. Oil is +2.0%.... but still only in the $29s.
sp'60min
Summary
*it is notable that if we close net higher today, it'd be the first 3 day run of gains since late December.
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Overnight minor declines have swung to what is a pretty important early gain.... back above the sp'1900 threshold.
A straight run to the 1920/30s is now clearly viable next week.
I also recognise that the 1940/50 zone is just about possible - via the daily cycle.... although the longer the bulls take... the harder it will get to hit.
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early movers....
TVIX -4% @ $10.10s... the 8s seem likely if sp'1930/40s
BA +1.8% in the $114s. The 70s look probable on any renewed market upset.
CHK +3.8% @ $1.90s.... but that company is on the edge of disappearing.
GDX +1.2%... although a relatively minor retrace after yesterday's implosion.
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Gold chatter, Hunter with Turk
Unlike many of the gold bugs though, I'm still not sure if we've seen a multi-year low. The $1300s this spring would be interesting... but then we still need to see a higher low.
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Overnight action
Japan: unraveling into the close, -1.4% @ 15836
China: a closing hour hyper ramp, +1.1% @ 2867
Germany: currently building rather strong gains, +1.9% @ 9311. The 10K threshold is out of range in any bounce.... first big downside target remains the 2000/2007 double top of 8K.
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Have a good Wednesday
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8.38am... PPI m/m , +0.1%... vs. expected -0.2%.
I'd imagine some see this as positive news... but then that favours the notion of higher rates, and we know the market gets real upset at that.
It was a rather positive start to the short trading week, with the sp +30pts @ 1895. Regardless of any moderate retrace, it would seem we're headed at least to the 1920/30s. The bigger weekly cycles are offering as much as four weeks of choppy upward grind into mid March, before first realistic opportunity of a rollover and break <1810.
sp'weekly6
Summary
*a notable blue candle to start the week. Underlying MACD (green bar histogram) is ticking upward, and that will probably remain the case into mid March.
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I've little else to say on the markets today. Instead, I wanted to highlight a couple of posters whom I really shouldn't be surprised about... but I am.
A few weeks ago I noticed 'Miningbookguy' via a retweet. I checked the related youtube channel, saw a few interesting vlogs, with some chatter on a few books and the movie 'the big short'.
I'm always interested in any talk related to the mining stocks, but after all these years, I'm always wary of anyone who actually highlights them.
Anyway, I decided to say hello to MBG...
Just a few days later... the very next video to appear.......
MBG was touting none other than a micro cap miner, with one of the lousiest balance sheets I've seen in a long while.
Worse still... look at the keywords...
Its THAT kind of nonsense I find utterly contemptible.
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Next up... the infamous 'Red Dragon Leo'. RDL is one of the kooks I've followed for a fair few years, but this latest crap goes way beyond the usual weirdness I see him post....
Ohh, so a crash has now been 'confirmed'.. but hey.. it gets even better... you can learn to double your money every month!
If you have at least sixth grade math, you should know with that degree of exponential increase, after 30 months you'll be able to buy much of the planet.
... but it gets worse... way.... way worse...
RDL is promoting a video about trading software/support for $195 a month. For that price, I'd expect them to send me at least 1/5th an oz' of Gold per month!
.. but then the ultimate...........
Ahh yes, its the old pyramid selling scheme.. the stuff of Amway or Herbalife.... etc.
-- If you're out there MBG or RDL... you're way past the line with this latest crap. You both seem kinda nice people, but you're just reverting to some seriously dubious behaviour. Maybe I'm just overly hopeful to think this kind of nonsense had largely ceased?
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Looking ahead
Wednesday will see housing starts, PPI, and indust' prod'. The latest FOMC minutes will be issued at 2pm.
*Fed official Bullard - the bane of the equity bears (remember Oct'2014?), is set to speak after the close, and that will likely influence the Thursday open.
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I'll end the day with a chart: GLD, daily
No doubt many of the gold bugs will be rattled at the ongoing cooling from last Thursday, but its to be expected. First gap zone has been filled, red zone will doubtless be hit. If the 200dma were hit, it'd be an overly big retrace, and be suggestive that Gold - and the related mining stocks, have yet to see a multi-year floor.
US equities closed significantly higher for the second consecutive day, sp
+30pts @ 1895. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 2.3% and
2.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers threat of a minor retrace to
1871/64, but in any case.. the 1920/30s are highly probable before next
opportunity of another major rollover.
sp'daily5
Trans
Summary
*price structure in the Transports is a large bear flag, but the close above the 50dma is somewhat bullish.
The fact other indexes put in marginally lower lows last week, its somewhat a messy picture.
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A second day higher... and it'd seem we'll see the sp'1900s soon enough.
Right now, there are a great many aspects of resistance from the 1920s to 1950s. It will be extremely difficult for the sp'500 to break >1950... even if the market can hold together into mid March.
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