VIX breaks upward

With equities unravelling into the close of Q1, the VIX jumped, settling +5.4% @ 15.29. Near term outlook offers a test of the 200dma in the sp'2010s.. which should equate to VIX breaking the recent high of 17.19. The door is opening to the key VIX 20 threshold.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*since it is end month... a rare highlight of the VIX monthly...

So.. across the month, the VIX gained 14.6%, but remains at a relatively low level.

Upper monthly bol' is offering the 20 threshold in April.. anything much above 21/22 will be difficult.
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more later.... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities ended the month/quarter on a pretty negative note, sp -18pts @ 2067. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -0.4% respectively. With the break of rising trend (from the Wed' low of sp'2045)... the door has opened to a test of the 200dma in the sp'2010s.


sp'60min

Summary

... another day comes to a close.. but also... Q1.

Suffice to say... a bit of a choppy day.. but with some rather significant weakness into the close.

With the break of trend on the hourly cycle... the door is now open to a test of the 200dma in the sp'2010s.. although that clearly is more viable next week.. than before the 3 day Easter break.

Have a good evening
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*since it is end month, a FULL set of updates across the evening to wrap up the month... and quarter.

3pm update - time to wrap up Q1

US equities remain moderately weak, with the sp' making a play to test the rising trend - which at the close of today will be around sp'2072. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2, whilst Oil remains broadly weak, -1.8%. Trading activity will likely be pretty high into the quarterly close.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*VIX did break above the morning high.. next level are the 15.50s.
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Well, its been a pretty choppy opening quarter to the year. Yes.. the bears will see a net monthly decline, but the equity bulls have managed a net quarterly gain (>2058).

Notable strength: TWTR +1.7%
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If we can break <2070.. then I realise many will be calling the recent rally from sp'2045 to 2088, a B or 2 wave... there are some interesting downside scenarios with that.
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... updates into the close.. not least.. if market can take out rising trend.. although that is seemingly unlikely.


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3.17pm... Some drama.. as market BREAKS rising trend..... sp'2070... VIX confirms the move.

Door is opening to more significant downside...... as Q1 wraps up.


3.23pm.. So... break of trend.... VIX confirming the move.

Things really get interesting on a move <2060.... which open up 200dma in the sp'2010s.

In any case.. at least today is ending with some price action!.

Notable weakness:  AAPL -1.4%
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3.36pm...  sp'2068.....  VIX confirming the downside break..... its looking real interesting for Wednesday.

2pm update - continued chop

US equities remain in minor chop mode, around sp'2080. VIX remains subdued, +1% in the 14.60s. Gold is increasingly weak, -$3, whilst Oil is holding moderate declines of -0.7%. Broadly... it remains a relatively dull end to Q1.


sp'60min

Summary

With two trading hours left of Q1.. it remains dull.

*I see a few are still open to much lower levels.. even into the mid sp'1900s.. but that is completely off the agenda unless we break under 2060. Right now.. I can't see that.
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Notable weakness: coal miners , BTU -7.7% in the $4s.

The horror continues.

1pm update - end month chop

Market has slipped into minor chop mode.. ahead of end month/Q1. A net monthly decline for most indexes looks a given.. but Q1 is set to close net higher. VIX remains subdued, +1.5% in the 14.70s. Metals are a touch higher, Gold +$1. Oil remains broadly weak, -1.5% in the $47s.


sp'60min

Summary

Smaller 5/15min cycles are offering another minor wave lower into the 2pm hour.. but overall.. looks like zero chance of a daily close <2070.
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Notable strength: TWTR, +2.4%.. .back above the key $50 threshold. Increasing chatter - not least on clown finance TV, about the massive popularity about their recent purchase of Periscope.

12pm update - minor weakness

US equities remain a little weak, with key rising support in the sp'2070/75 zone. VIX is showing no concern, +1% in the 14.60s. Gold +$2... but set for a net monthly decline of around 2%. Oil remains broadly weak, -0.6%, also set to close the month net lower by around -2%.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Little to add.

Early declines.. nothing of significance.. and even if we break a new low in the late afternoon, it does little to negate the Monday gains.

Notable weakness: TCK -9.7%.. as the bid rumour chatter comes to nothing.
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VIX update from Mr T.




Re: the broken ETFs/ETNs...

VXX, 5min

Clearly... someone needs to hit the reboot button.

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time for lunch

11am update - same old nonsense

After opening moderate declines, and another lousy PMI number of a recessionary 46, the market is already rebounding. Regardless of the close, its already been a failed morning for those in bear land. Metals are holding minor gains, Gold +$3. Oil remains weak, -1.1%.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

*daily candle is already offering a spike floor on rising trend...
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It is getting tedious again... and this mornings opening weakness is making for a mere retracement of the strong Monday gains.

Sure, we'll still close the month net lower, but does it matter?
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Notable weakness: oil/gas drillers, SDRL -3.5% in the $9s.

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open moderately lower, but there really isn't much downside power behind it, as reflected in the VIX +3% @ 15.00. Metals are holding minor gains, Gold +$2... whilst Oil is still weak, -1.3%.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*Chicago PMI 46.3... pretty dire.. and it is the second consecutive recessionary number. Q1 GDP is going to be lousy.
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So.... weakness to begin the end of month/Q1, but its nothing significant yet.

Hourly cycles are offering more sig' downside in about 2-3 hours. There is potential there for the bears across the day.

Notable weakness: TCK -8.1%... as the bid/merger rumour is blown out of the water.
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10.01am. Consumer confidence: 101.3... crazy high... highest level since Aug'2007... almost back to housing bubble peak hysteria, although frankly.. it is of little relevance, relative to the Chicago PMI. THAT is what people should be taking notice of today.


10.11am... for those closely watching... opening black-fail candle on the VIX. That rarely bodes well for the bears.

A few years ago.. such a bad PMI number would have killed the market -1.5%... but no... not in these times.

Seems little point being short this market.... not least with the rest of the world markets soaring... but more on that another time.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -13pts, we're set to open at 2073. Metals are broadly flat. Oil is very weak, -2.1%. A busy day is ahead.. as it is not only month end... but the completion of Q1, trading volume will likely be very high.


sp'60min

Summary

So... the bullish F flag is going to fail at the open... that is the third failure in recent weeks.

Market should find support in the low sp'2070s this morning. Things really only get interesting on sustained trading in the 2050s, but really... that seems unlikely today.

The key thresholds for the 'big picture' watchers are...

sp'2104.50... for a net monthly gain
sp'2058... for a net quarterly decline...which would be the first in SIX years.

re: MARCON. It does seem a given that March will close with a bearish MACD cross.. hence MARCON 6. That would be suggestive of a market that is getting increasingly tired..... after the giant rally from Oct'2011.

At best... some kind of intermediate drop this late spring/summer, but I still can't see a grand top for another two years or so.
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Notable early weakness: TCK, -7.7% @ $14.10.. having denied the original rumour from Bloomberg, that it was in merger talks with London based miner Antofagasta.
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9.45am. Chicago PMI   46.3, a second recessionary number.

Indexes looking pretty lousy... but VIX showing no real concern.

Net monthly decline?

The week began with significant net daily gains of sp +25pts @ 2086. Equity bulls need a Tuesday close above 2104.50 for a net monthly gain...  but that looks out of range. However, despite the recent weakness, market is set for another net quarterly gain.. only needing to settle >2058.


sp'monthly

sp'weekly7

Summary

*with renewed upside, the opening weekly 'rainbow' candle is an outright bullish green, and with a break over the 10MA (2074).. it bodes for broader upside into early April.
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So.. rather strong gains to begin the week. I had expected some Monday gains... but not this much. Next short opportunity does not look viable until Thursday.. but then... with a 3 day weekend... who wants to hold short (or long) across that?

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Looking ahead

Tuesday will see Case-Schiller HPI, consumer confidence, but more importantly..the latest Chicago PMI. Market is expecting 50.2 vs the previous 45.8.

Lets be clear... anything under the 50 threshold is indicative of a recession. If the Tuesday number is anything less than 48 or so.. market should be at least moderately upset in terms of a possible negative Q1 growth number.

*Fed official Lacker will be speaking on the Economic outlook at 9am... and Mr Market will no doubt be listening for any interest rate comments.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed with significant gains, sp +25pts @ 2086. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.0% and 1.4% respectively. Near term outlook is uncertain.. with the threat of a bullish F flag failing.. at least to the low 2070s. Daily/weekly cycles are turning back to bullish.. with one trading day left of the month/quarter.


sp'daily5

Dow

Summary

Little to add.

Daily MACD (blue bar histogram) is ticking back upward.. and is set to turn positive this Wednesday.

Certainly.. it would seem the bulls will be in control ahead of the Friday jobs data.. when the market is shut. I'm not sure if there will be any futures trading this Friday morning.

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Closing update from Riley


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a little more later...