Saturday 31 May 2014

Weekend update - World monthly indexes

Most world equity indexes continue their broad climb from summer 2012. With the DAX set to hit 10k, and the Dow clawing its way toward 17k, equity bulls remain in control. There remains 'moderate' chance of a multi-month wave lower later this summer/early Autumn.


Lets take our monthly look at ten of the world markets

Greece


The Greek market closed fractionally lower for May, but well above the intra-month low of 1062. There remains opportunity for another lurch higher to the big 1500 threshold, and that is a clear 20% higher.


Brazil


The Bovespa slipped -0.75% in May, but underlying MACD cycle is continuing to swing towards the bulls. The closing monthly candle is a touch bearish, but equity bears really need <45k to have any confidence in this market. Best case upside is around 60k this summer, and that is around 15% higher.


France


The CAC managed a minor gain of 0.7% for May, but it was the third monthly gain so far this year. The big 5000 threshold remains just over 10% higher, but looks somewhat unlikely until the very end of the year - and that would require an absence of any summer weakness.


Germany


The powerhouse of the EU gained a very impressive 3.5%, and is now a mere 0.6% away from attaining the giant psy' level of 10000. Based on May price action, the 10k level will be hit early next week. Upper bollinger band will be offering the 10300/400s in June.


UK


The FTSE gained almost 1%, and is now less than 2% from breaking the historic high of 6950 (of Dec'1999). Price momentum is very weak though, and MACD (green bar histogram) could turn negative in the immediate term. Price structure is also somewhat bearish, the UK market looks.. tired. First support is 6500, if that fails, then 6k.


Spain


The ugliest of the EU PIIGS, the Spanish market gained a significant 3.2% in May, and looks set for 11k.. if not 12k by July. What happens in the 11-12k zone though will be interesting. Viable downside - on a market break, would be the 10k level. If major market upset (geo political issues?), then 8k would seem to be the very best the bears could aim for.


USA


The mighty Dow climbed just 0.8% in May, and the trading range for the month was itself very narrow. A new high of 16735 was achieved, with the 17000s looking viable in mid June...if not July.

Like the UK FTSE though, price momentum continues to swing back toward neutral, and there is high opportunity for the MACD cycle to turn negative in June. If the US/world indexes do break lower this summer/early Autumn, best downside case is probably no lower than 14000.


Italy


The Italian market slipped 0.7% in May, but the closing spike-floor candle is somewhat bullish. There remains very strong resistance in the 22000s, and if this index remains stuck <22k across June/July..it could bode for a mid-term top. Primary downside would be in the 17000s, but that is 'best bear case'.


Japan


The Nikkei gained a useful 2.3% in May, but remains below the key 15k threshold..which is obvious resistance that stretches back into the 1990s. Underlying MACD cycle turned negative in May, and we have a bearish cross.

Without question, the Japanese market is one of the more bearish world markets, and this is somewhat ironic considering the continued huge monetary pump from the JCB. Best bearish case downside this summer/autumn would be the 11000/10000 zone. Sub 10k looks overly difficult, not least since the JCB will be more than content to increase QE..as necessary.


China


The China market gained 0.6% in May, but price action remains relatively muted, within a very tight trading range that is now over two years in duration. The fact the Shanghai comp' was again trading <2k this past month is not entirely bullish.


Summary

As a collective, the world equity market continues to climb. No doubt, a great reason for this rally is the continued printing from the various central banks, along with low interest rates. Certainly, parts of the world economy are growing relatively fine, but as US Q1 GDP data just recently showed, despite continued (if diminishing) QE, the US economy is currently contracting.

The ECB are understandably concerned about underlying deflationary pressures, and many now accept negative interest rate policy (NIRP) is a likely outcome. Overall, there is a risk of at least a moderate recession already underway.


Looking ahead

There are quite a few things next week.

Most notably, Wednesday - ADP jobs, Fed beige book.

Thursday will see an ECB announcement. Market is expecting at least a reduction in interest rates, although some are hoping for a QE program - I do not expect the latter. How the market deals with 'lower rates, but no QE' is difficult to say.

The week concludes with the monthly jobs data, market will probably rally on any number higher than 180/200k.

*there is sig' QE-pomo: Tue $1.5-2bn, Thurs $2-3bn
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On the sidelines for another week?

I didn't take any trades in the past week, and I'm not particularly interested in anything this coming week. I am real tired of this market, and in many ways, I could do with a few months just avoiding it entirely. As some of you might understand (if not also experiencing yourself), I'm burnt out on this.

...and maybe that itself, is an uber-contrarian sell signal,

back on Monday :)

Reflections on moon madness

The sp'500 is now 849pts higher since the Oct'2011 low, that makes for a gain of 79% across just 32 months. It still seems fair to assume that at some point this year, the monthly cycles are going to break lower (if only for a few months), but from there...further 'moon madness' upside.


32 months..and counting
Summary

*for those curious..the original post, from last October
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Okay..first....consider...

sp'monthly'3e (unedited from Oct'2013)


*The ECM cycle (from Armstrong) is highlighted in late 2015.

Now, I'd certainly not get fixated about a particular day..or even month. I'm seeking a 'grand multi year peak' sometime in late 2015/early 2016 time frame.

In the last ECM cycle, the equity market peaked six months after the ECM peaked...so maybe we are looking at spring 2016 before the current paper bubble catches fire?

--
Regardless, the point about the above scenario, is that with the break above the 2000/2007 high last year, I became resigned to much higher levels. The break of the multi year double top was a very significant technical achievement for the market, and yet, I still think many are not taking that aspect at all seriously. 

A natural back test of the old double top - from the 1900/2000s, would seem (at least to me) a very natural wave lower this year.


Outlook for the next year or two?

sp'monthly'6b


The included wave count is of course entirely speculative, but regardless of how you want to count it (if at all)..the broader trend remains to the upside.

So, I am still holding to the vain hope of a significant retracement this summer/early Autumn. Yet.. in the bigger picture, I think this market is headed to far higher levels. There are many reasons for this, not least of which is central bank ZIRP policy and the huge amount of money printing.

..and that will suffice for today, the week...and the month.

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend update will be on the World monthly indexes

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed the week relatively flat, sp +3pts @ 1923. Most notable, there were new historic highs for the Trans (8113), and sp'500 (1924). Near term outlook is bullish into the middle of next week.


sp'daily5


R2K



Trans


Summary

Little to add.

Unquestionably..with new historic highs for the Trans/SP - with Dow set to follow, the broader market is indeed back on the climb.

The Feb' low of sp'1814 is now a clear 100pts lower, and with VIX 10s likely next week, this remains a market of utter complacency. Such calm won't last forever though.

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a little more later...on consideration of the bigger picture

Friday 30 May 2014

Volatility melts into the weekend

With equities holding largely flat, the VIX was once again in melt mode, settling -1.5% @ 11.40 - the lowest monthly close since Jan'2007. Across the week, the VIX gained 0.35%, whilst across the month, VIX fell a very significant -15%


VIX'daily3


VIX'weekly


VIX'monthly


Summary

Indeed, most notable...it was the lowest monthly VIX close since Jan'2007. We're right back to levels/price action not seen since the peak of the property bubble.

Of course, this sure doesn't mean the VIX has floored, the 10s do look likely in June, perhaps even the 9s.

Considering the monthly equity charts though, I'm still seeking some kind of multi-month down wave, which should equate to VIX back in the 20s...later this summer. Whether we can go much higher than the 2013 high of 21, that remains the big unknown.
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more later...on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed the week..and the month on a positive note, with rather typical algo-bot melt, sp +3pts @ 1923. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside into next Wednesday.


sp'60min


Summary

..and another month comes to a close.

This was month'32 of the grand wave from Oct'2011.

I continue to have the hope (if smaller each day), that we'll get stuck this June..or July.

Problem remains - at least as I see it, even if we do eventually see a strong (if brief) 2-3 month wave lower, the central banks will go crazy with the PRINT button, with the market rebounding even stronger than it did in late 2011.

I hold to the original 'grand outlook' that we'll see broad upside into late 2015/early 2016. More on that later this evening though...

*I am entirely on the sidelines, and have little intention of getting involved until at least next Wednesday. I'd consider a minor short side trade..perhaps...based on possible disappointment at the next ECB of June'5.
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Have a good weekend
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*the weekend post will be on the World monthly indexes

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A late afternoon update from Riley, which will likely suffice for the weekend



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3pm update - minor chop into months end

May is set to close with net monthly gains for all the US equity indexes. Even the battered R2K/Nasdaq are higher by 0.6% and 2.9% respectively. Not exactly bearish, is it? Meanwhile, precious metals will close the month on a weak note, with net monthly declines of around -3%.


sp'60min


Summary

A short week, but...overly tiresome, I will welcome the weekend...and good riddance to May. For the bears....it was simply another month to forget.
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Notable weakness: TWTR -4% or so, but still...net gains on the week.

Coal miners looking dire, but more on them..after the close, on my 'fair value' page.
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Meanwhile...whilst the VIX is set for the lowest monthly close since Feb' 2007 (ahh yes, the property bubble peak), clown finance TV are focused on far more important things... such as what clothing one of their guest should wear.

Clown finance TV... indeed
Yeah...the clown pants would be appropriate.
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sigh.
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3.30pm.. the only issue this closing hour...how much might the VIX be knocked lower into the close..as it almost always is.

I don't expect 10s today..but certainly..in June.

back at the close

1pm update - tiresome chop

US indexes slip a little, but again, there really isn't any power behind the move. Maybe a few of the rats will want to sell into the weekend, regardless, May was a positive month. Metals remain weak, Gold -$10, with silver -2.0%


sp'60min


Summary

Little to add, on what is starting to be come a tiresome day.


Notable weakness: the miners, BTU -3.7%, 

TWTR -4.6%... momo chasers..not appearing today.
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2.05pm.... nothing to add.  

 back at 3pm.

12pm update - fractional new highs

Equities remain stuck in what is essentially algo-bot melt mode, with fractional new historic highs in the Trans and the sp'500. Metals remain weak, Gold -$10, with Silver -1.4%, with a particularly bearish outlook for June. VIX looks set to close May in the 11s.


GLD, monthly


Trans, monthly


Summary

*ignoring the smaller cycles....ohh, and don't get overly fixated on the GLD wave count. Point is...trend remains broadly lower, right?

Gold/Silver look VERY bearish for June, with the 2013 lows set to be broken.
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VIX update from Mr T. (due)



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time for tea

11am update - minor excuse for a down wave

With Fed official Plosser making an appearance on clown finance TV, the market has an excuse to sell lower..if only a little. Precious metals are especially weak, with Gold -$10, and Silver -1.0%.


sp'15min


Summary

Well..lets see if Mr Market wants to shake out a few of the weaker bulls...first downside zone is 1912/10 or so..with a much clearer gap zone of 1902/00. I sure don't expect the latter today though.

From a purely cyclical perspective, we are due a down cycle today, but as ever...underlying pressure remains UP.

Hence.. I ain't getting involved, never mind the bullish weekly cycles.
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time for an early lunch.
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11.16am.. So much for a micro down cycle..... new high on the sp'500.

Market appears in algo-bot melt mode...and that could easily last another 2-3 days.

10am update - chop into the weekend

US indexes open a touch lower, but the underlying upward pressure is no doubt still there. A positive daily close would merely be a bonus to the equity bulls. Metals remain weak, Gold -$5, with the mining stocks again on the slide, GDX -0.1%


sp'monthly


Summary

*Chicago PMI comes in at 65, which is the highest reading since mid 2011.
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I'm not quite sure what I will posting today, I will probably try to stick to the bigger cycles, after all, it is months end.
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We're set for the fourth consecutive monthly gain, and primary trend remains bullish. The monthly 10MA will be around 1825 in June, so..that would be 'core support'. Anyone think we have a chance at break <1825 next month....because I don't.

I see more talk about a Bradley turn date in mid July. I'd guess that is more likely a high than a low. Sp'1940/60 zone...perhaps...with VIX 10/9s.

I'll maybe post some speculative outlooks across the day.
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notable movers: TWTR -2.8%, although that is after huge gains earlier this week.

CHK -1.5%,  FCX -1.5%...


10.28am...ohoh.. Fed official...on the loose....on clown TV...coming up...

market will react....

5/15min index cycles..look toppy..........first downside would be 1912/10 zone.

...good luck to the day-trading bears out there....

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -2pts, we're set to open at 1918. Metals are ending the week poorly, Gold -$3. Equity bulls look set for a positive end to May, with further upside into the sp'1925/30 zone, early next week.


sp'60min


Summary

Without getting wrapped up in the minor noise, it'd seem the bulls remain in full control.

*we do have some semi-key econ-data today, notably, the Chicago PMI (9.45am). I suppose if those come in below expectations, there is a chance of a minor down wave..but really. underlying pressure remains strongly positive.

The next thing the market will need to deal with is the ECB next Thursday. I do NOT see an announcement of QE, but rates will probably be reduced.

For now though.. bulls have another 3 or 4 days of viable upside.
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Video update from Oscar



Oscar has been flip-flopping more than a US politician lately, and now that we're in the 1920s...he is back to bullish.
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Well, its the end of the month...and without question...it was another tough one for the bears...especially those who were short the R2K/Nasdaq.

Another day of new highs

Once again the US equity market broke new historic highs - Trans (8110) & Sp'500 (1920), with the Dow looking set to follow. The only issue is whether the R2K and Nasdaq are going to break the early March highs.


sp'weekly8b


R2K, weekly'4, rainbow


Summary

So...another pair of new historic index highs, and the price action remains very bullish. We have 7 consecutive green candles on the sp' cycle, and even the laggy R2K is back to bullish green.

I'm still guessing the R2K is headed to at least 1170/80, but if it can break into the 1200s, then the bigger H/S formation will get dropped.
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A flashback to 2007

I will continue to give Schiff plenty of flak for his incessant 'dollar doom' talk, but hey...I'll also sure as hell enjoy giving everyone periodic reminders that he was one of the few brave ones warning about the property bubble.



Seeing these videos never fails to amuse me. It is Incredible to reflect upon that most of the mainstream analysts who completely failed to see the bubble for what it was...never lost their jobs.


Looking ahead

There is a trio of econ-data tomorrow, Pers' income/outlays, Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment.

*next sig' QE-pomo is not until next week. There is a new QE schedule to be issued, Friday, 3pm
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes closed with moderate gains, sp +10pts @ 1920. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued upside, with the weekly charts offering sp'1925/30 next week.


sp'daily5


R2K



Trans


Summary

*most notable, new historic highs for the Trans and sp'500.
--

So..the broader multi-week up cycle continues, with ZERO sign of this levelling out..never mind actually rolling lower.

Clearly, this can't go on forever, but another few weeks....why not?
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Closing update from Riley



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a little more later...

Thursday 29 May 2014

Volatility stuck in the 11s

With US equities holding moderate gains across the day, the VIX was naturally under constant downward pressure, settling -0.9% @ 11.57. Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain in the 13/11 zone until mid June.


VIX'daily3


VIX'weekly


Summary

Little to add.

VIX remains low..and even the mid teens look tough to hit for another few weeks.

Once the bigger weekly cycle starts to tick higher..then I will start to consider a VIX call block for a summer/autumn play...until then...I am content to wait.
--

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities resumed higher - despite a dire revised GDP reading, sp +10pts @ 1920. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers minor chance of a retrace to 1902/00, but more likely...1920/25 zone to start June.


sp'60min


Summary

Remember all the talk about how sp'1897 was a key high...ohh, then but it became 1902...that would be the top.

...and here we are...still pushing upward. This is of course especially impressive considering the latest key GDP print of -1.0%.

On any basis..the market should have been smacked lower by such a large miss - even below expectations of -0.5%.

Just a year or so ago, the market would have been whacked sharply lower on such bad data..but no..not in this 'new normal'.


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* I remain content on the sidelines. I'll be tempted to launch a major index short around the next FOMC of June'18.

more later..on the VIX

3pm update - weakness into the close?

US indexes have broken new index highs, with sp'1917s...pretty incredible to see. VIX looks vulnerable to turning red, but then...11.70s...11.60s...does it really matter? Metals remain weak, and look set to close lower for the fourth consecutive day.


sp'60min


Summary

*battling to catchup on emails....
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Well, ALL the smaller index cycles are due to fall into the close...so...if I had to take a trade..I'd be short.

*as it is..I remain content on the sidelines. I can't short with the weekly cycles as they are.
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updates into the close..especially if we start to slip lower...although as I type...there is ZERO sign of this madness levelling out yet.
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3.24pm... Bears getting sequentially short-stopped OUT...hence the current gains.

ZERO downside pressure..thus..we go up.

Nasty market...I suppose...at least I'm not sure.   I live to fight another day.


3.41pm.. VIX fractionally lower.... and sp' 1pt below the high....the humanity of it!

Notable strength in the drillers.. DO, RIG, SDRL,..with the latter having results at the Friday open.


..and CNBC rolls on 'end of the world' doomer... the Schiff.   


3.54pm... flowers to the clown TV host.....and why not?

A close in the 1920s...just about viable....

back at the close.

2pm update - afternoon minor mess

US equities are holding minor gains, but those were more than enough to break new historic highs in the Transports and sp'500. The broader up trend most certainly continues..with 'small' risk of a retrace back to the 1902/00 zone. Metals remain weak, Gold -$3.


R2K, daily


Summary

R2K building a bull flag on the daily?

I'm certainly not buying at this level, I'd consider 1130/25...but there only looks to be a small chance of that.

After all, if GDP -1% can't kick the market lower, what can?

How about 'end of the world'? But that is bullish construction sector, yes ?
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*Just noticed..my email client has not been sending me notifiers all day..urghh.....bear with me
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2.26pm.. We're coming up to the typical turn time of the afternoon.

ALL smaller cycles are now over-stretched to the upside....90minutes for 'weakness into the close'.

A full reversal here would be kinda interesting...

For the day-traders out there...I'd guess it makes for a valid trade..but with a nano-tight stop!

1pm update - churning

US indexes continue to hold minor gains, with the Trans/SP' having broken new highs. There is next to zero downside pressure, and with GDP out of the way..the bulls have a clear run until the Friday/monthly close. Metals remain broadly weak, Gold -$3


sp'60min


Summary

I realise some will be looking to launch an index short, not least in the 1920s..but really..whats the best case downside..15..20pts..if that?

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Truly tiresome

Notable strength, the drillers. especially SDRL, but then..recent price action remains somewhat choppy.


1.33pm... another nano sized bit of weakness....

..but really...overly risky for those on the short side.

12pm update - QE fuelled nonsense

The second sig' QE-pomo of this short week, is no doubt negating what little downside pressure there is. Even the R2K (persistently susceptible to weakness) is moderately higher. Metals are fractionally lower, but look very weak into June.


sp'daily5


Summary

I suppose if I stared at the sp'500 daily chart long enough, I'd almost want to short..except...

sp'weekly8b


On any basis..trying to short into that sort of multi-week up wave..is plain stupid. Even I can see that.
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VIX update from Mr T



50 cent strikes...indeed, but I sure ain't buying. 
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time for tea

11am update - minor choppy mess

US indexes continue to hold minor gains, and despite some apparent weakness (most notable in the R2K), the market is still showing the underlying upside pressure. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2, although mining stocks are bouncing, GDX +0.9%.


sp'60min



Summary

A bit of a messy morning.

Bears are being teased..but..with the QE...it is just so difficult to even slip a little.

No doubt, the GDP reading will be something many will dwell on into the weekend..and right now, I find it hard to believe Q2 will be much better.

Q2 reading will not be issued until late July of course..so...equity bulls have a relatively clear run until then.
--

Notable strength: AAPL, +$4 @ $628...with the stock split due next week (I think).

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time for an early lunch

10am update - opening minor gains

Equities open moderately higher, with new historic highs (yet again) for the Trans/sp'500. VIX is a touch lower, but managing to hold the 11s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$3, with Silver -0.4%.


sp'60min


Summary

*I was looking for a black-fail candle to start the day... and as at 9.54am...R2K has a BLACK-fail candle.
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With a barrel of QE fuel due to appear this morning..bears face underlying upward pressure.

In theory..we could close today in the 1920s..which would certainly bemuse the mainstream, considering the lousy (and it WAS lousy) GDP data.
-

I remain on the sidelines. I can't short (not least with the weekly cycles pushing up)... but I can't go long.

Yeah..trader paralysis....although at least I'm not losing money on the short side.


10.38am.. R2K turns red...rest of the market...probably to follow.

Primary target is sp'1902/00...with R2K 1127/25

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a little higher, sp +3pts, we're set to open at 1912. Precious metals remain weak, Gold -$5. A minor retrace remains viable, back to the 1902/00 zone, before the 1920s next week.


sp'60min


Summary

*awaiting second reading for Q1 GDP
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There is reasonable chance of a minor retrace today, but then, the broader trend still remains to the upside. A minor fall to 1902/00 - where there is a rather obvious gap, would be a viable area to go long.

There is sig' QE-pomo today..so even if the market is moderately lower by late morning..the bears will likely face a latter day recovery.
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Video update from Mr Carboni



Like him or not....he has been especially right on Gold.
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Notable early strength: TWTR, +2.7%
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8.31am.. GDP revised from +0.1%... to -1.0%.... real ugly number, but market doesn't much care. After all, rest of the year is going to be rainbows and unicorns..yes?


9.00am.. So..once again, all that doomer chat about 'ohh, lets short, because GDP will be bad' amounts to nothing.. with sp +4pts.

Ohh, sure we could still fall as the day proceeds, but the QE will negate most, if not all of what little downside pressure there is.


9.32am .. I think we're headed a little lower...

seeking an opening black candle on the hourly index charts...

I won't short..but sp'1900 might make for a valid buying level.

Mr Market grinding the bears into dust

With the sp'500 and Transports breaking new historic highs, those equity bears who have been short since the Feb' low continue to be ground into dust. With the R2K flooring in the 1080s last week, it remains highly suggestive of at least a few more weeks higher.


sp'weekly8


Summary

So...SEVEN consecutive green candles on the weekly chart, and anyone shorting this..is shorting into one hell of an up trend.

Where will it stop? The sp'1920s look likely next week..to begin June. The 1940/60 zone looks viable in mid June - around the time of the next FOMC.

Yet...maybe even higher? There are a few out there touting 'straight up..into the sp'2100s' in the current multi-month up wave (from Oct'2011).

Personally, I'm still seeking at least a 2-3 month wave lower this year..but hey..the months are already running out this year!


Looking ahead

There is the usual jobs data, but far more important...the second reading for Q1 GDP. Market is expecting a downward revision to -0.5.

*there is sig' QE-pomo of around $3bn, bears...beware.
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Just another day

It remains a truly tiresome market. The recent floor in the R2K/Nasdaq remains an issue I am still battling to assess. Was it merely the HEAD of a H/S now formed in the R2K, or was it just a giant 12 week down wave...with a far bigger multi-month ramp to new highs?

R2K, weekly'2, H/S


Well, the H/S scenario will indeed get dropped on any break into the 1200s....that is only 5% higher.

I will hopefully be around tomorrow, I suppose you could request a refund, but don't expect a reply.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes closed somewhat mixed. Most notable, new historic highs for the Transports (8102) and sp'500 (1914). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.7% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued broad market upside into mid June.


sp'daily5


R2K



Trans


Summary

Little to add.

ALL indexes are broadly trending higher, and the Feb' low of sp'1814 is around 100pts lower. The weekly/monthly charts are both suggestive of higher levels into June..possibly July. As a fair few are suggesting, the sp'1940/60 zone looks very viable, before this madness finally does max out.

The longer this goes on..the sharper the down wave will be.
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a little more later...

Wednesday 28 May 2014

Volatility a touch higher

Whilst equities saw minor chop across the day, the VIX managed a minor gain, settling +1.5% @ 11.68. Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain in the 13/11 zone, although if sp'1940/60s in June, then VIX 10/9s look very likely.


VIX'daily3


Summary

*third consecutive daily close in the 11s..remarkable.
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Little to add.

VIX is in micro chop mode..and looks set to remain low for at least another 2-3 weeks.

*I have zero intention of picking up a VIX call block until mid June, 
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more later..on the indexes