sp'60min
Summary
Dull dull dull.
-
Frankly, were it not for the action in commodity land - inspired by a morning swing to the upside in the USD, today would have been difficult to stay awake.
--
A daily wrap at 8pm EST.
Monday, 10 November 2014
Closing Brief
A very quiet start to the week for the US equity market, sp +6pts @ 2038. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.3% and 0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is still offering a retrace, but with each day.. the target of the 50dma (1971) will need to be raised.
sp'60min
Summary
Dull dull dull.
-
Frankly, were it not for the action in commodity land - inspired by a morning swing to the upside in the USD, today would have been difficult to stay awake.
--
A daily wrap at 8pm EST.
sp'60min
Summary
Dull dull dull.
-
Frankly, were it not for the action in commodity land - inspired by a morning swing to the upside in the USD, today would have been difficult to stay awake.
--
A daily wrap at 8pm EST.
3pm update - the real action remains in the miners
Whilst equities continue to see micro chop.. there remains significant action in the Gold/Silver miners. The ETF of GDX has lost most of the Friday 'dumb bounce' gains, -6.3%.. set for the 15/14s... along with Gold -$1130.
GDX, daily
Summary
Quiet start to the week... not much to say than that.
-
Metals continue to slide.. Gold -$23 (-2.0%).. which is a fairly sig' move on any basis. All those getting overly excited that last Friday was a key turn...
Well, they'll no doubt still be calling a floor this evening... and tomorrow.. etc
--
back at the close
GDX, daily
Summary
Quiet start to the week... not much to say than that.
-
Metals continue to slide.. Gold -$23 (-2.0%).. which is a fairly sig' move on any basis. All those getting overly excited that last Friday was a key turn...
Well, they'll no doubt still be calling a floor this evening... and tomorrow.. etc
--
back at the close
2pm update - Transports leading the way
The Transports is now in the 9000s... and would even the most doomer of doomer bears dare suggest 10k won't be hit in the coming few months? No doubt.. the lower oil prices are especially giving the Trans an upward push.
Trans, daily
Summary
Little to add.
It remains a quiet day.. and tomorrow will likely be little different.
-
There remains sig' weakness in the metals.. .and that is naturally greatly impacting the miners. GDX -5.4%
... still on track for the 15/14s. No doubt though.. the floor callers will be out there again this evening.
Trans, daily
Summary
Little to add.
It remains a quiet day.. and tomorrow will likely be little different.
-
There remains sig' weakness in the metals.. .and that is naturally greatly impacting the miners. GDX -5.4%
... still on track for the 15/14s. No doubt though.. the floor callers will be out there again this evening.
12pm update - higher dollar... bearish commodities
The USD has swung a fair bit higher across the morning, and that has put added downward pressure on the commodity market. Metals continue to slide, Gold -$15, with Silver -1.1%. Oil has lost the early gains of 1.3%, and is now lower by a rather significant -1.1%
GLD, daily
GDX, daily
Summary
*with the metals weak.. miners are getting smacked lower again. The 15/14s look due.
-
The broader equity market though... no sell side.. merely continues in algo-bot melt mode... with a trio of new index highs. How much of the US market did the BoJ buy this morning?
-
VIX update from Mr T.... not appeared... so here is something else....
Arguably far more important than where the equity market is headed... will Batfleck be any good?
--
Ohh, and finally Mr T. does appear...
--
--
time for a long lunch... back at 2pm
GLD, daily
GDX, daily
Summary
*with the metals weak.. miners are getting smacked lower again. The 15/14s look due.
-
The broader equity market though... no sell side.. merely continues in algo-bot melt mode... with a trio of new index highs. How much of the US market did the BoJ buy this morning?
-
VIX update from Mr T.... not appeared... so here is something else....
Arguably far more important than where the equity market is headed... will Batfleck be any good?
--
Ohh, and finally Mr T. does appear...
--
--
time for a long lunch... back at 2pm
11am update - VIX melting lower
Whilst equities see micro chop, there is notable weakness in the VIX, -4% in the mid 12s. Mr Market is right back into 100% complacency mode.. as trading volume drops to typical 'holiday' levels. Metals remain very weak, Gold -$10.
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add right now, on what is one of the dullest Monday opens in some months.
-
Meanwhile..the stock that isn't really a stock... BABA, continues to climb... now up 41% since the mid Oct' turn.
Regardless of the shady 'Cayman based' issue... at least it makes a profit.. unlike AMZN.. or much of the other momo nonsense.
-
10.59am...a micro spike... with new historic highs in the Trans. Dow, and sp'500. Overall though, it remains very tedious.
Considering the only data of note is retail sales... not until Friday, most should probably turn off their screens and come back next week.
11.38am.. USD turns positive.... pressuring commodities....
Gold -$15.... miners in real trouble again.. GDX -5.3%...
Oil swings sharply lower... from +1... -1%.
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add right now, on what is one of the dullest Monday opens in some months.
-
Meanwhile..the stock that isn't really a stock... BABA, continues to climb... now up 41% since the mid Oct' turn.
Regardless of the shady 'Cayman based' issue... at least it makes a profit.. unlike AMZN.. or much of the other momo nonsense.
-
10.59am...a micro spike... with new historic highs in the Trans. Dow, and sp'500. Overall though, it remains very tedious.
Considering the only data of note is retail sales... not until Friday, most should probably turn off their screens and come back next week.
11.38am.. USD turns positive.... pressuring commodities....
Gold -$15.... miners in real trouble again.. GDX -5.3%...
Oil swings sharply lower... from +1... -1%.
10am update - is the market even open?
US equities are extremely subdued, and it almost feels like the market hasn't opened. Despite the near grave yard price action, the Dow has fractionally broken a new historic high. Metals are weak, Gold -$8, whilst Oil is +1.0%
sp'60min
Summary
A move back to the big 1900 threshold looks extremely unlikely in the remainder of the year, although I realise... a fair of the usual suspects (good morning deflationland, Daneric.. et al) would disagree with that
-
Right now, a retrace of some kind.. at least to the 50dma.. now 1971 (and rising).. still looks due.... but that is a clear 3% lower.
How we are going to fall that much this week? There sure isn't any planned econ-news/events of any significance.
--
Notable strength, RIG +2.4%, having finally issued earnings.. which were fine, but the outlook for spring 2015 sure doesn't look pretty.
RIG, weekly
Price structure could merely be a temp' floor - like August. The bigger monthly charts are offering the 20/17 zone within 3-6 months.
sp'60min
Summary
A move back to the big 1900 threshold looks extremely unlikely in the remainder of the year, although I realise... a fair of the usual suspects (good morning deflationland, Daneric.. et al) would disagree with that
-
Right now, a retrace of some kind.. at least to the 50dma.. now 1971 (and rising).. still looks due.... but that is a clear 3% lower.
How we are going to fall that much this week? There sure isn't any planned econ-news/events of any significance.
--
Notable strength, RIG +2.4%, having finally issued earnings.. which were fine, but the outlook for spring 2015 sure doesn't look pretty.
RIG, weekly
Price structure could merely be a temp' floor - like August. The bigger monthly charts are offering the 20/17 zone within 3-6 months.
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. Futures are fractionally higher, sp +1pt, we're set to open at 2032. Metals are moderately weak, Gold -$8, which is naturally impacting the miner ETF of GDX -1.3%. Energy prices are on the rise, Oil +1.3%, with Nat' Gas +0.7%.
sp'daily5
Summary
So.. a relatively quiet start to the week, unless you're a gold bug, in which case.. you gotta be worried that last weeks low of $1130 will be taken out. As ever.. if the metals are weak, the miners will get whacked.. regardless of any main market strength.
Notable early strength: oil/gas drillers.. RIG +2.3%, SDRL +3.9%, no doubt due to rising oil prices.. although the bigger trend in Oil remains toward the $65/60 zone. Hard to tell if the drillers have fully priced that in, I'd guess.... no.
-
Morning chatter, Hunter with Axel-Merk on 'risky assets'.
Kinda interesting discussion, but as ever.. make of that... what you will.
--
Good wishes for the week ahead
sp'daily5
Summary
So.. a relatively quiet start to the week, unless you're a gold bug, in which case.. you gotta be worried that last weeks low of $1130 will be taken out. As ever.. if the metals are weak, the miners will get whacked.. regardless of any main market strength.
Notable early strength: oil/gas drillers.. RIG +2.3%, SDRL +3.9%, no doubt due to rising oil prices.. although the bigger trend in Oil remains toward the $65/60 zone. Hard to tell if the drillers have fully priced that in, I'd guess.... no.
-
Morning chatter, Hunter with Axel-Merk on 'risky assets'.
Kinda interesting discussion, but as ever.. make of that... what you will.
--
Good wishes for the week ahead
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