With equities closing significantly higher for a second consecutive day, the VIX continued to be crushed lower, settling -16.5% @ 14.05 (intra low 13.82). Near term outlook offers a moderate threat of equity downside to sp'2085/80, but with broader upside into August.
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly'2
Summary
I think the bigger weekly cycle is increasingly important. Based on many multi-week cycles across the last few years, 2-3 weeks of a subdued VIX look due... before sustained price action above the key 20 threshold.
Prime time for the equity bears would appear to be from mid August.. into early October.
US equities closed significantly higher, sp +22pts @ 2099. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by 1.1%. Near term outlook offers moderate threat of downside to 2085/80... but regardless of any Tues/Wed weakness, the broader trend looks bullish into early August.
sp'60min
Summary
*further gains in the closing hour, and some indexes suggestive of a straight up move, at least into early Wednesday.
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Ant Man, aka. Gordon Gekko.. aka... Micheal Douglas brings the day to a close !
Ant Man loves DIS?
So, a second consecutive day of significant net daily gains. The recent double floor of sp'2044 is already almost 3% lower!
For the few remaining doomer bears out there... it is arguably a gain of side step this nonsense.. at least into early August.
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Something I did not mention earlier.... the bears were causing travel problems in London city earlier this morning... as they broke through a fence.. and chained themselves up.
US equities are set to close significantly higher for the second consecutive trading day. With price structure of a baby bull flag, there is threat of a Tuesday gap above resistance at the sp'2100 threshold.. opening up marginal new historic highs (in some, but certainly not all indexes) into early August.
sp'60min
VIX weekly'2
Summary
*VIX is really getting ground lower today.. pretty amazing to see the 14s... having hit 20.05 last Thursday.
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An interesting.. if somewhat subdued start to the week.
Right now... there seems ZERO point in being short.
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notable strength: tech, AAPL +1.8% in the $125s
US equities are holding onto most of the gains built in early morning. Price structure is a rather clear baby bull flag, and is more suggestive of upside early Tuesday.. than weakness to sp'2085/80 zone. In either case, market looks set to battle broadly higher into August.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.
Threat of moderate downside... but broadly... this market looks okay for a few weeks... as particularly supported by the VIX which probably will remain subdued into August.
Most US equity indexes are holding somewhat significant gains for the second consecutive day. A daily close above the hourly 10MA - sp'2090 by the close.. would offer strong support for a weekly close >2100. USD is building gains, +0.7% in the DXY 96.60s.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.
A minor down cycle... not surprising... and whether the market melts to the 2085/80 zone early tomorrow should make little difference to those broadly long.
Market looks set to climb for a few weeks into early August.
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notable strength: DIS, +1.2%.... Ant Man will be helping.
The 120/125 zone looks a given with next earnings.. before rolling lower.. with the broader market. However, what should be clear, regardless of main market downside.... DIS remains extremely strong.. and will hold up much better than almost all other stocks.
US equities are holding somewhat significant gains, with the sp'500 hovering around the price gap zone of sp'2098/2101. VIX is naturally crushed, -15% in the 14.30s. Metals are weak, Gold -$5, whilst Oil has turned positive, +0.2%
sp'daily5
VIX'weekly2
Summary
Little to add.
I can only think the bears need to side step things for 2-3 weeks.
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VIX update from Mr T.
*speaking of fiddy cent... he just filed for bankruptcy... with $50 million debt.
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time for lunch :)
US equities are likely maxing out.. at least for a day or two. With a few aspects of resistance around sp'2100, there is viable cooling to the 2085/80 zone... before resuming higher this Wed/Thursday on Yellen 'unicorns and rainbows' chatter to the US congress/senate.
sp'60min
Summary
I am trying not to get lost in the minor noise... with eyes on the bigger weekly cycles. As noted earlier for the VIX, I'd have to think the equity bears could simply side-step the next 2-3 weeks.
The sporadic Greek headlines remain tiresome... how many more years of Greek drama?
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notable strength: NFLX,
daily
The momo chasers are out in force today... battling to break a new high >$706.24. I like the company, but at a current PE around 300.... (low 200s if you assume growth in 2016)... this is still an insanely priced stock.
Will be one to watch across Sept/early Oct, if the main market gets whacked lower.
*NFLX will see the stock split (7 for 1) implemented as of this Wednesday morning.
10.57am. ... NFLX breaks the Icahn/stock split announcement high.... bears on the run...
US equities open higher, and are building gains toward the price gap zone of sp'2098/2101. VIX is naturally cooling, -12% @ 14.70s. USD is +0.6% in the DXY 95.50s. Metals are naturally weak, Gold -$10, with Silver -1.4%. Oil is similarly weak, -1.1% in the $51s.
sp'60min
VIX'weekly2
Summary
*the above VIX chart is something new, and I will be frequently referring to it across the next few months.
Best guess... VIX cools for 2-3 weeks... levels out.. and then UP. Whether some indexes can break new historic highs between now and August.. difficult to say.
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Busy morning... bear with me.....
As things are... market looks set to max out around sp'2100... and then cool to the 2090/85 zone... forming a bull flag... taking us into early Tuesday.
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notable strength: NFLX +3% @ $701.... the momo chasers are out in force.
weakness, miners.. GDX -1.5%... as the metals slide... not helped by USD strength.
Good morning. With the Greeks provisionally agreeing to a third bailout - with terms/conditions worse than those the Greek people voted against just a week ago, equities futures have swung higher, sp +14pts, we're set to open around 2090. DXY is rallying, +0.3% in the DXY 96.30s.
sp'daily5
Summary
So... another Greek can kick.. at least 'provisionally'.
The only issue now is whether the market can break new historic highs (in some indexes, certainly not all) in August.. before more significant weakness into early October.
From a pure cyclical perspective, equity bears would probably do well to step aside for at least 2-3 weeks.
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Update from a BIG dip buyer.. Mr C.
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Mr Smith
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Overnight China action: the swings continue... but more moderate, after a little morning chop... the Shanghai comp' settled +2.4% @ 3970. The 4K level looks imminent, with bounce upside to the 4300/500 zone into August. I expect renewed weakness after mid August... to at least 3K... perhaps 2500 for a capitulation washout in Sept/Oct.
If correct, it will be interesting to see how the Chinese leadership respond to another major equity down wave. Will they have dedicated firing squads for equity bears, or just maybe just seize their homes and send them to the mines of Tibet? Would that be bullish resource sector?
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Have a good week.
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7.55am.. sp +14pts.. 2090... with a clear gap zone around 2100.
Meanwhile... some maniac is touting more GREXIT nonsense talk....
As ever... make of that.. what you will ;)
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9.00am.. sp' set to open around 2090... above first soft target... next level... price gap zone/threshold of 2100.
notable weakness: metals, Gold -$8... with Silver -0.5%... not helping the miners, GDX -0.8%
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9.37am.. Well.. there are the 2090s... next up... 2100 by 11am.. probably.. then some cooling.... back to 2090/85 zone.
