Saturday 31 March 2012

World Stock Indexes - End'Q1

Its that time of the month, lets take a grand overview of ten of the worlds leading stock indexes. 

Greece – the Athex'60

After a strong opening to the year - with February showing some brief follow through, Greece ended March slightly weaker, the much bigger down trend remains entirely intact. Even a move to the 10MA - or even a touch above, by early summer is almost certain to fail. This market is already past the 'Armageddon' phase, there is only 15% or so left. In the scheme of things, the Greek market is already over.

France – CAC'40

France is a key market to watch, and I believe its going to be vital to closely monitor across the next 3  months. It should give USA traders a warning as to if this post-October rally will keep on going...or rollover.

The CAC'40 at 3423 presently, will face SEVERE resistance around 3700 by late June/July. This of course is the time I expect the US markets to be peaking around 1550. Also, a move of 10% in the CAC, would match up perfectly with a further 8-10% in the SP' index. Things are really looking in sync' across a number of world indexes.

Of special note, the MACD (green bar histogram), will be very close to going positive cycle by mid April, and there should be a bullish cross of the MACD red/black lines. So, everything is set up for one final burst upward. One final thing that you can see in terms of the MACD, we've have two broad up cycles since the 2009 low. The coming third tower/+ cycle will be much smaller, and we should see a confirmed rollover by August/September. That would bode very well for at least a 3-6 month down cycle in the main indexes.

Germany – DAX'30

Germany has had a great first quarter - even though it was a difficult March for the EU, and ended positive. If there is one index in Europe that can break out to much higher levels, it is Germany. The MACD cycle will almost certainly go positive cycle at the beginning of next week - providing a pretty huge buy signal for the algo-bots for April and into early summer.

There will be strong double-top resistance around the 7600 level in the next few months. I'd guess we will fail there, and even the strongest EU nation/market will rollover in the latter part of the year.

United Kingdom – FTSE'100

The FTSE index had a moderately weak March, but the underlying trend is still positive, and just like Germany, looks set to go positive cycle in early April. I'd guess the FTSE is likely to go above the May'2011 highs, with a target around 6200/6400. That would again match up with the overall SP'1550 target, no later than July.

Hong Kong – Hang Seng'48

A weak month for Hong Kong, losing 5%, but underlying trend still looks upward (although weakening). A target of around 22/23k would seem the very best that the bulls can aim for.

Spain – IBEX'35

Spain is one of the weakest EU markets, a real economic basket case. With 50% youth unemployment, we have seen just this past week increasing social unrest. The Spanish people are getting moody, and with summer coming, it will only get much more 'dynamic' there. Bullish fire extinguishers, glazing companies, and rock miners?

The IBEX is very weak at 8000, however there is pretty easy upside to the 10MA around 8800. That's a good 10%..and again..this would match up with Sp'1550 by June/July. Eventually, I'd foresee the IBEX breaking under 7k..and that opens the door to a fast plunge to 5k.

USA – DOW'30

Six straight months up for the Dow, and it remains arguably the worlds strongest index. The MACD cycle has been positive for the past 3 months, and a few more positive months seem highly probable. In terms of price action, next target is upper bol' 13500, then a test of the 2007 bubble high of 14198. It is entirely possible that the dow will make a new high as 14500/700 by July. A new dow high, to coincide with a facebook IPO? That would make for a near perfect marker point for a top.

Italy – Borsa'40

Italy is weak, but a test of the declining channel line around 17500 seems probable. The underlying MACD cycle looks set to go + cycle in April.

From a bigger perspective, you can see that Italy is still some 65% lower than the 2007 bubble era. A truly epic 'waste of time' for the buy & hold Italian investor. The Italian market is broken, and what will be very curious to watch is what happens if we break below the 13k level.

Japan – Nikkei'225

The bull flag that I mentioned in the first world-index report has been marginally broken above. First target remains 11k, and -assuming the bigger bearish outlook is correct, the 11k resistance will hold, with a move to the lower channel line of around 6k sometime in 2013.

China – the SSEC'50

There is an incessant amount of China doom talk out there. Even a Zerohedge posting on Friday was suggesting a China market crash is viable. Indeed it is, but - considering the near term outlook for the other world indexes, I believe it won't happen until at least Q3, or more likely Q4.

A move as high as 2600 seems viable in the coming few months, but it looks highly improbable that it can break and hold over the next huge psy' level of 3000. Just like in Italy, the really curious aspect is what happens if we break below 1700 - it would open the door to a further 45% fall to 1000. That will not please the amateur Chinese trader..they've had a rough 5 years already (down around 60%)..a move to 1000 would be a fall of 85% from the bubble peak. China social uprising in 2013?

Indexes - Summary
Greece: weak, long term decline continuing, only 15% left to go.
France: a 7/10% move up by early summer
Germany: a strong EU index, good chance of 10% upside
UK: on the threshold of breaking above the long term channel down trend.
Hong Kong: a few more moderate months higher..before rolling back lower at the upper channel line
Spain: weak weak, WEAK. An early summer bounce..before a major threat to breaking key 7k
USA: still super strong, a challenge to all time highs looks very likely, and even a brief break above.
Italy: a few months higher, underlying target/test of 13k...if fail..then...major collapse.
Japan: the basket case demographic mess, signs of a breakout, but..somewhat messy.
China: on the edge, but a bounce seems quite possible, before underlying econ-weakness fully appears.

In Closing
Despite the huge concern, the Greek 'Can' was successfully kicked ahead a few more months. Of course, attention is now shifting to the bigger PIIGS of Italy..and Spain. Spain will be the one to watch for all of 2012, will the government ignore the will of the people? Fridays announcement of huge public sector cuts sure is not going to help the social mood. Expect 'trouble' ahead in the sun baked streets of Spain.
With underlying momentum on most of the world indexes still crawling upward, we should expect April...and into the May-July period to show some broad gains..roughly between 7-10%. A few indexes will doubtless fall short or exceed this range. 
Looking ahead, we will probably see more 'Green Shoots' talk in April. Earnings season will probably come in 'okay'. The maniacs on the various clown channels still have the biggest IPO to look forward to - the Facebook. A market peak around such a debut would make sense, and then...the next broad down cycle can begin.
I hope this overview was useful, as they say in the mainstream..'stay tuned'..more coming this weekend!
Good wishes

Welcome to the Weekend :)

Today was certainly not a bear massacre, however, neither were the bulls damaged. Considering it was end quarter, things seemed kinda quiet.

Dow'30 monthly

The Dow had another good month, not too much..not too little. The pace of uptrend is VERY consistent, and that's why I remain bullish. We pulled back during the month, but still closed higher, and that's a good sign for April.

Will April be rife with Green shoots? We have earnings season real soon, and that could be the catalyst to whack this market another 3-4% higher, enough to open the door to the target sp'1550 by late June/July.

Much more over the weekend. Good wishes

Friday 30 March 2012

The Bigger Picture..into Q2

 Tis late...lets take a brief look at where we are at...

SP' monthly

Yes, its been a shaky week for the bulls, but overall, we are surprisingly still positive on the sp'500 for this week and month Everything is set up for April for a move above 1440..which should guarantee a brief - and quick run to 1550.

VIX weekly cycle

VIX is still failing to close over the 10MA. If Friday is at least a moderately up day for the indexes, then VIX will again close another week poorly -although underlying momentum is still crawling back higher. Lower bol' is 10, so maybe that will be low in the coming weeks/months..

Prospects for Q2

Friday will be interesting to watch, a strong close for the markets would merely rub more dirt in the face of the remaining bears. Just how can they remain bearish whilst the monthly cycles are still cruising up in an almost straight line?

Earnings season will be here in just over a week, if the market decides those numbers are okay, then a move above sp'1440....seems highly probable. Such a move would smite another pack of bears, it could get real ugly...real soon.


Thursday 29 March 2012

End Q1..with a Friday Bear Massacre?

Hmm...lets take a look at the hourly cycle first...


A reasonably recovery for the bulls, the hourly cycle looks primed for further upside on Friday.


IWM still closed red, but well off the lows. Cycle should go positive early Friday morning. There is the potential for ALL of Friday to be upward in trend. A Friday close of IWM anywhere over 84 would be a real failure for the bears.

VIX 60min - more fail

Kinda strange action in the VIX. Looks almost identical to yesterday. It reminds me of a cycle from some time ago, but I can't recall when, or what happened next. Regardless, Friday looks set to be a weak open for the VIX..with indexes moving higher.

Friday targets

SP, 1410/15 would be enough for the bull camp to declare another successful week. Anything under 1400 would be a problem. I will note there IS the real threat to the bears that Friday will actually turn into a massacre.

We have a few pieces of econ-data, if they come in okay, and the euro-indexes can move upward, a few good words from the Bernanke, then is a new SP' high possible? The immediate upside target would be around 1422/25.

For IWM, which I remain Long (via calls), anything in the high 83s would suffice, mid 84s would be a real victory, and open up a challenge of the key 86 (equivalent to sp'1440) next week..before the Easter Bunny arrives.

More later...

Thursday Troubles

CRX continues to show weakness today

CRX weekly.

*here is a hotlink to my CRX chart, you should be able to bookmark it, and just F5 refresh, as you wish.

CRX :$CRX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54657819469&a=235016520&listNum=1

Meanwhile, VIX is at the breakout level...

VIX weekly

Bears need to see a closing above the 10MA.

The VIX has not had a weekly close above the 10MA since last November, so, if it can just about hold this level, that would be somewhat bearish for next week.

*again, note the MACD cycle, still inexorably climbing back, + cycle in a few weeks, at current trend.

60 min index cycles remain very low, and thus, the risk is on a short term upside retracement...

SP 60min

Certainly not a disaster for the bulls, but they would like to hold this level! A move into the low 1380s would be a problem.

More later!

Oh oh...Commodities are breaking below support

Alright, now, first of all, lets note the mild case of hysteria across the various boards/sites the last 2 days. It is crazy in that even though we are just sp'14pts from the recent top, many posters are massively bearish, especially for the very near term.

The main weekly and monthly equity cycles remain bullish, as they have been since the October low.

However, this evening I have noticed the following two commodity related charts that I've mentioned a few times recently. Both have now broken key levels...and are warning of trouble.

CRB, weekly

It was a clear bear flag that's been developing since Christmas, and so far this week we have a marginal break to the downside. We won't know for sure unless we can hit maybe 305/300. A break under the recent low of 290 would be a severe warning.

CRX, weekly - commodity related stocks

Now this is something I follow even more closely than the CRB. We have broken the October trend/channel line. It is important to note that it could still be a bull flag - in which case, we need a move back above 960 - which is 10% higher. That 10% higher is just to get back into a bullish phase, and frankly, that's asking quite a lot.

*note the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle which WILL - baring a bizarre ramp on Thursday/Friday, go negative cycle next week. A potential major snap lower is very viable next week.

Some very mixed signals at the moment

Despite Wednesdays fall in the market, of which half the losses were reclaimed, the VIX still managed to collapse in the last hour to close red. So, where is the fear in this market?

The world indexes look pretty oversold on the daily cycles, it would be very natural for them to recycle back upward next week.

Yet, the two charts above are something I've been touting as 'things to watch for', and here we are with both flashing preliminary warnings. Confirmation for a major move to the downside would be next week.

*Equity 60min cycles are floored (as noted in an earlier posting), so we'll need to see what the bulls have, can they break a new high? we put in a slightly lower high at the top of the next cycle, 1415?

A question to ponder for Thursday...

Q. Are commodities the first warning?  We might well see sp'1440 - whilst commodities continue to show weakness...and then...equities follow within a week or two.

Metals...still WEAK, despite the chatter

There do seem to be a lot of bullish metal articles appearing in the usual sites this past week. Yet, the weekly -and monthly, charts are NOT bullish. Quite the contrary in fact.

Market UP..metals down
Market down...metals down.      Great huh?

SLV, weekly, 2yr historic

SLV is due to go negative cycle within 2 weeks. There is a real danger Silver could flash down to $25 at such time. Again, I'd argue, if we see sub $30..then the $20 target is confirmed to be hit sometime later this year. I suppose you could argue we have a bull flag for the past 2 months of trading. I am certainly open to that theory, but see how the last bull flag turned out last September. Urghh!

GLD, weekly, 2yr historic

Gold is still stronger - across the longer term than silver, but it has already been negative cycle for a month and shows no sign of turning back up.

The Metal Bugs have their Eyes Wide Shut

The Pro-Metal Webmasters -and their legion of regular posters/lurkers are seemingly not willing to open their eyes to what is happening. It seems the same thing that happened last September could well happen again. Endless 'Silver to $60 end 2012' articles are being thrown out there, and yet here we are, and both Silver and Gold are showing consistent weakness.

From a purely technical outlook...both are WEAK. Even worse, if the main market continues melting upward, the 'flight to safety' positive aspect that both metals had will likely further lessen, and that will only cause more downward pressure on the metals.

Wednesday 28 March 2012

Are the Bears calling today a Victory?

So, in bear land, was today a victory, or another failure?

As Permabear, I have to call it a fail. Not a complete fail, but any bear has to be annoyed with how the last few hours of today went.

SP'60min cycle

The 60min cycle is quite probably complete. We have a nice spike-low, and the last hour candle showed some reasonable upside. A fair hint of what might occur Thursday. Certainly, we could still have a double or triple down cycle as happened last week, but I'm

VIX, daily, rainbow chart

To even my surprise today, the VIX closed RED! Can you believe that? That has to be a real disturbing sign for the doomers out there this night. If they aren't taking notice of that failure, then they are ignoring a real warning sign.

As I noted to a few traders today, until I see VIX back in the 20s, any move of 10, even 20% is irrelevant. The VIX at such low levels, is highly problematic to be of any use as an indicator.

SP' weekly

Bulls still have a positive week at the moment. With the 60min cycle now reset, there is the real possibility the market can crawl back up to at least 1415 by Friday. A new high of 1422/25 by the Friday close would be a devastating blow to anyone who is currently adding to new short index positions. It would also bode well for the first attempt next week to break the next key level of 1440.

More later...maybe :)

Weak Bull Hands Getting Shaken Out

The market just a short while ago broke below1400 - a pretty important level. Although this is certainly not a critical level, it will important than the bulls see this market close somewhere better than where we are right now. 1405 would suffice..perhaps, but 1410 would be a reasonable outcome.

SP'60min cycle

60min MACD cycle is pretty low now. As ever, that is not to say it can't just stay negative cycle for rest of today, even for a number of consecutive days, but more likely we'll some kind of move higher as the day progresses.

*Bulls will especially wish to see 1420/25 hit again within the next 2-4 trading days to confirm the uptrend is still intact.

As I post this, SP' is 1401..and looking like it may well have found some support.

Good wishes

Dr Copper - an early summer high?

Copper is without question a great indicator of underlying economic growth. It has been a pretty volatile commodity over the last few years, lets take a look...

Copper, weekly cycle, 2yr historic

Copper is still way below the 2008 highs, although admittedly so are the main US and world Equity markets. The count I've noted is something to consider. We do have two very clear triangles (pink), with the first one breaking to the upside. Will this latest one do the same? I am guessing it does, and my target is $4.10/20 by June/July.

I believe that will make the peak of the current 5-wave up cycle that has lasted since October'2011.

Copper, weekly cycle, 8yr historic (bearish scenario)

On a much larger time view, Copper appears like it could be in a wedge. This is a particularly tricky one to project from. Clearly there are two key levels to watch, from which we could then assume a more general direction.

1. A move above $4.60 would be VERY bullish (with major implications for Gold/Silver/Oil)
2. A move below $3.00 would be VERY bearish, and support the deflationary theory that many still hold to.

For the Commodity/Economic bears, it is easily possible that Copper will bounce off the lower triangle support line around the $3.25 level near the end of 2012, and then put in a lower high, before the more dynamic and fierce move lower sometime in 2013.

Dr Copper will certainly be important to watch in the coming summer, I'll be sure to provide regular updates on this important base metal.

Tuesday 27 March 2012

A holding-pattern day. 1440 still due

We are just circling around like a C5 Galaxy, nothing much happened today. I expect more dynamic action back upward in the latter part of Wednesday or more likely Thursday.

SP' daily

Tuesday was nothing less than minor noise. How many bears were getting overly hysterical during today's closing hour? The trend is still up!

VIX Daily

VIX did show a moderately interesting move, but whilst it remains at such a low level, its likely to see occasional moves of 10, even 20%, and such moves will not be valid as significant. Only if VIX can get over 20, can the bears start to get a little curious about things.


Holding to all original targets, Sp'1435/45 within the very near term...probably only days away. If a couple of days securely closing over 1440, then 1550 by late June/July.

More later....maybe.

US Dollar..a bullish count

Good morning. The Futures wheel is moderately green. Follow through of +0.5% or more today would be a major victory for the bulls, and seal the deal on a charge to 1435/40 by end of the week. Meanwhile, lets take a look at the US Dollar. Here is something to consider in the coming weeks and into early summer.

US Dollar - weekly, a bullish count

This is something I put together this morning. It assumes the mid-term outlook is still bullish - primarily as a result of the eventual (in my view) implosion of much of the Euro-zone members. There are of course huge issues regarding further QE, but I'll set that aside for now.

Key issues...

1. Look for a low early summer, maybe we are in a standard ABC correction from wave'1 (black number). Dollar bulls will not want to see USD below 75 under any circumstances.

2. If the Dollar does floor in early summer, we will want to see a pretty strong back upward move to break the recent high of 81.78. A move into the 82s.. and certainly 83s..would surely lead to a move to around 83/84 (the 'Benny @ Jackson Hole'/August 2010 high).

Good wishes for Tuesday trading.

Tbill yields..another problem for the bears

I've been keeping a close eye on the Bond market.

Tbill yields, monthly

Just look at the MACD (green bar histogram) indicator. We have a real chance of going positive cycle in April. That in itself does not guarantee anything, but it is arguably one bullish sign for the equity market. It could fail of course - as it did in late 2008 no less, but that is highly improbable.

So, the bears have got a real problem on almost every monthly chart out there.

A move beyond SP'1550 ?

When I consider the bond market yields, - which offer an easy 3-6 months upside, with corresponding moves in equities, it makes me wonder if sp'1550 will be the max, or if even 1600/1700 is viable this autumn?

It is a disturbing thought, but one that must be considered.

Good wishes

Monday 26 March 2012

Stupid Bears

I'm bemused by the equity markets of the last few years. Its largely been a waste of time for the average retail trader since the late 1990s. Over a decade lost of precious time, never to be recouped. Only a somewhat crazy person would wish to be part of this high-frequency and government manipulated nonsense.

However, what does really get to me, is the sheer stupidity in the bear camp. Ohh, and I count myself in that group, not right now (I am still Long), but certainly..most of the time. How many times does the Bernanke need to appear, causing a rally, before the Bears know to not be short ahead of it?

The bears ARE right...but also gravely wrong.

The market declines are generally hard and fast...but oh so brief. The 2008 collapse wave lasted barely a year, and here we are, and its now 3 full years of what is a general mega-ramp, from sp'666 to 1416. Sure, we had two big declines, the 2010 and 2011 summer declines, but as brief..and the bounces back made them almost impossible to trade for anyone lacking psychic/magic powers.

The Bears, remain the realists. They do see the truth behind the lies, behind the money printing of the Bernanke...but truth sure doesn't matter in the western capital markets. It seems that only brief breaks in the delusion allow the market to show a glimpse of where it would probably be, were natural forces allowed to fully operate.

I've posted a lot about the monthly cycles lately, I'll post up two Fib' charts which I believe are very important for the remaining bears to seriously worry over....

IWM, monthly, fib levels

A pretty simple extrapolation - and I'm certainly not the only one who has suggested it. IWM looks set to break the important 86 level, and then make a challenge for 100/105 by late June/July. That level would equate to roughly SP'1550. No bear can dare suggest we are not in a very consistent uptrend.

SP, monthly, fib levels

The 1440 level will be challenged soon, maybe even by the end of this week. Certainly, we could fall back a few percent from there, but even then, we're still likely to break 1440 by mid April. In my view, any series of closes over 1440, and 1550 becomes a given, within the 3-6 month term.

So few Bears remain

The Bear camp lost a few more today no doubt. There really can't be many left. Three years of what has largely been pain and...more pain, and here we are today, with another handful of dirt rubbed in the face of those still holding short positions.

I sure as hell won't be one of them, last week was absolutely clear. The bears lack the energy - if that's the right term, to break this market down. Perhaps by Sp'1550 the market will be so exhausted, it'll be pretty easy to start the next cascade. Regardless, that is almost certainly many months away.

For those still holding short, I have to ask...are you really not looking at those monthly charts I keep posting?

   one of the remaining Bears.

Breakfast with Bernanke

A pretty impressive start to the week for the bulls.

Bernanke getting coverage on the clown channels this morning certainly helped inspire what was originally just  a marginally interesting up move.

IWM, weekly...

As noted recently, the monthly cycles are very bullish, and now we have the weekly cycles all supporting the bigger picture target to sp'1550 /IWM 100/105.

More later in the day.

April will be Pivotal for the Metals

So far March - and indeed the year, has been a bit rough period for Gold and Silver. Rather than the much touted moves higher that many of pro-metal websites have predicted, the Metals are still slipping lower.

Silver, monthly, 2yr outlook

Silver looks very weak, and looks set for a challenge to break its November low of 26. If 26 does fail, then my original target of $20..and even $17.50 are within range.

Right now, only a move above $40 could it be said that Silver is decisively on a new up cycle, with a third attempt to break $50.

Gold, monthly, 2yr outlook

Gold remains stronger than Silver, but its still in a near term decline. Right now, the long term trend/channel remains intact. A break below $1500 would be hyper-bearish, and it'd likely snap straight down to $1400 within days. I would also believe that if $1500 fails, then $1200 is also a given, although that level would likely take until the latter part of this year.

Long term, the metals remain the ultimate trade

So I am certainly still bearish on the metals for most of this year, and maybe even into 2013, yet the long term outlook is very clear.

I remain super bullish on the metals in the long term. Especially silver which has systemic problems in lack of supply within the next 10/15 years.  A combination of both Gold and Silver - in physical form, remain the ultimate hedge against the printing maniacs of the worlds central banks.

Saturday 24 March 2012

Monthly Meanderings

Seems like a quiet weekend on Planet Earth (am I tempting fate?), regardless, lets look at some more of those monthly charts (I will look at the world indexes next weekend).

IWM (representing the Rus'2000 small cap)

Still yet to break May 2011 highs. First target remains 86/87, then upper bol' of 89/90. The Fib' extension- equivalent to sp'1550 would take IWM to around 100 by late summer.


The Dow is comfortably above its summer 2011 high, and if this past week was a successful test of support, we can soon expect dow to hit the upper bol' of 13500. The Dow will doubtless be the next main index to make a challenge of the 2007 high by early summer.

NYSE Composite

Still almost 10% below the 2011 high - and is arguably the last real evidence for the original bearish case.


The SP' is due to test the semi-important April'2008 (pre-wave'3 stage'1) spike-high at 1440. What happens then will be important for the broader market. Right now, the trend is very steady, and an attempt to 1550 looks very viable.


The 'old leader', a very narrow sector to follow, but still, if the March low is in, then April should see a move above the 2011 highs. That would suggest at least a further 10% up move, probably equivalent to at least another 5% on SP' - so, the SP' would get to 1460/70 - which in itself would likely open the door to 1550.

Wilshire 5000

Quite comfortably above the 2011 high, and seemingly on a steady move to test the 2007 high. A very bullish sign for the broader market.

In Closing

There is very little left to support the notion that further upside is not likely in the very near term. The Dow has broken above key levels, and the huge Wilshire 5000 index is also above last years May high.

Certainly, there will be some significant resistance in the months to come, notably sp'1440, but if we do see SP' in the 1450s/'d seem almost a guarantee that we'll see the market continue to melt upward to around 1550 by mid/late summer.

It would be very pleasing to see the market fail to break sp'1440 in the coming weeks, and a multi-month fall back down to the channel line of 1150 by early Autumn, but right now, that is merely a 'hope', and the scary reality is that right now...the primary trend IS up.

SP'1440...or 1550?

Good morning! Here is something to initially dwell on this weekend....

SP'monthly..the bullish scenario

Near term, a move to  1435/40 still seems highly probable.

Most interesting of all...the fib' extension (I think I've done it right), is roughly the 1550 zone by June-August period. That would very nicely fit in with the expanding asecending wedge we're currently in. A challenge to the 2007 bubble highs of 1576 looks feasible.

Across even longer term charts, a move to 1550 looks even more logical.

For the bears, such considerations are obviously sickening, and sheer heresy. There sure won't be many permabears left if sp' gets to 1550 within the next 3-6 months.

Trading this nonsense

I'd argue its pretty simple for those with 'serious money' to trade this scenario/key threshold.

If we see a few closes in the 1450s, then another 100pts up is free money - via low vol' melt up.
If we get stuck at the next up cycle, around 1435/45, with lots of candle failed spikes, then we have a good chance for a nice 6 month decline to around 1150 by early Autumn.

Stops -for both long/short positions at the 1430/50 zone will be very important to have.

More later.

Friday 23 March 2012

Bulls fight back into the weekend

Bulls saw what they needed today. I'll keep this brief, I'm tired, and I will post indepth over the weekend.

IWM daily, rainbow chart...

We end the week for IWM with a bullish engulfing candle. All things considered, its the best that could have been hoped for. Other indexes are not as bullish, but I'll cover that over the weekend.

In the meantime, welcome to the weekend!

Friday crawling back up

IWM leading the way...

60min cycle...

Looking like things are on track.

VIX currently confirming the indexes are flooring.

Not expecting any major upside today. In fact we could trundle around for as much as a week, but so long as IWM holds over 80 -at ALL times, I'm confident that sp'1440 will yet be hit.

More later.

Euro H/S, new wave lower due

The Euro is looking like its ready to break lower.

Euro, daily cycle

Momentum indicators are still pointing upward, but we do arguably have a pretty clear H/S formation. A move above 1.34 would likely mean we continue upward. We'll know soon enough.

Euro- weekly cycle...VERY bearish across the mid term

A move to test/break 1.20 looks very possible later this summer. Of course, that would mean the $ is up, which would mean downward pressure on equities (and especially the metals!). Hmmm.

Conversely, a move above the bigger channel line of 1.35 would suggest a real chance - no matter how insane it seems, to around 1.40/1.45 later in the summer. That would support the notion of Sp'1550 - as many have been touting lately.

So, keep an eye on the Euro in the coming days, it could offer a real clue as to where this crazy market is headed.