Sunday 3 June 2012

Weekend Update'2 - The Week Ahead

The futures wheel has just spun up, and we're marginally lower, -50 dow pts. Nothing far, but its a long night, and Asia will be opening soon to spice things up.

There is econ-data every day this coming week, nothing as major as last week though. However, most important of all, we have the Bernanke talking, 10am Thursday, -  'Joint Economic Committee on the economic outlook'. Doubtless the media will be looking to Benny for hints of QE, and/or confirmation of weakness in the economy since the start of the year.

A brief reminder on where this sick and nasty market presently is...

Sp, daily, count'3

Sp, weekly


Target is sp'1225, as based on the weekly chart. Last weeks action looks like a straightforward bear flag, which was confirmed on Friday. If we've just seen a minute'2 of this blue wave'3, then the bigger moves should now be occurring - and Friday was good confirmation of that theory, with the biggest fall since last winter.

Regardless of overnight futures action, we could still bounce Monday - both 15/60min cycles are very low, a move to 1295/1300 is still easily viable, before further - and stronger impulsive moves toward the low 1200s.

Beware the Bernanke

Will Benny upset the market this Thursday? It is always risky to trade when the printer man is due to speak, the market could use it as an excuse either way.

Finally, look to the VIX, for a spike/capitulation day. So far, we've not seen that this year (see VIX posting on Friday).

Goodnight from a somewhat flooded city.