VIX cools a little

Whilst US equity indexes closed very mixed, the VIX saw moderate swings across the day, settling -3.6% @ 26.05. Near term outlook offers the sp'1940/60 zone into the next FOMC (Jan'27th), and that should equate to VIX 20/18. Broadly.. the 40s are extremely probable by early spring.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to add, relative to the ongoing equity weakness, the VIX arguably remains subdued.

Keep in mind, when sp'1867 in Aug'2015, the VIX exploded to the low 50s. Of course, that was largely due to the style of price action, but still.. it is surprising to see VIX broadly stuck <30, whilst most equity indexes have now broken below the Aug'2015 low.

What should be clear, whether its a few weeks, or a few months, VIX 40s are coming. The only issue is whether the style of price action is dynamic enough on the downside to briefly merit 50s.. or even 60s.
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*I am looking to be long VIX next week, probably via TVIX, somewhere in the $7/6s.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed very mixed, sp +1pt @ 1881 (intra range 1901/1864). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -1.3% respectively. Near term outlook remains for a bounce into the next FOMC, best bullish case is for 1960/70s, before renewed powerful downside to the 1750/25 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: with a floor of sp'1864 from 2.45pm, the market soared into the close.
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Well, today turned out to be a hell of a lot more wild than expected.

The opening gains to >1900 were no surprise, but yet another FULL reversal was a surprise.

We now have a higher low of 1864... the hourly cycle is offering 1920/30 tomorrow... and that should equate to VIX 23/22s.
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**Awaiting earnings from IBM and NFLX

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - Oil is causing renewed problems

US equities continue to struggle, with the sp' having seen a powerful downward swing of 1.8% from sp'1901 to 1864. Oil is -3.6% in the $29s.. as the market remains understandably concerned (amongst many things) at Iranian Oil production. If sp'1857 fails to hold, then its empty air to the 1750/25 zone.


sp'15min

VIX'60min

Summary

..so much for the bull flag... the 1870s really needed to hold.

If 1857 fails.. then its empty air to 1750/25 BEFORE the FOMC... and then a rally.

Best guess: the low HOLDS, but for anyone bold enough who is long, 1857 remains the ultimate and absolutely clear dead-stop level.
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notable weakness...

CHK, daily

.. as Mr Market is starting to finally recognise this company is on the 'disappear list'.
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3.10pm.. a notable bounce from sp'1864 to 1874... bulls need a close >1875 to break above short term down trend.

VIX -1% in the 26s... showing NO sign of going hyper.. and that IS a problem for the equity bears.


3.25pm.. Well, there is sp'1878... a net daily fractional gain is on the menu... but hell... bulls got a real scare just earlier.

VIX confirming the underlying upward pressure, -1% in the 26s.

I'd only feel comfortably long-VIX from 20/18.. with TVIX 7/6s.


3.29pm.. pretty fierce short-stop cascade... swinging from 1864 to 1881

It remains a NASTY MARKET ! 
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3.31pm...

sp'15min

We have our first higher low, next target.. break >1901 tomorrow.
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3.50pm.. very nasty for any bears chasing lower this afternoon.. swinging from 1864 to 1888

2pm update - still a bull flag

Despite continued cooling (and it remains very gradual) to a new intra low of sp'1880, price structure remains a baby bull flag.. with the 1925/30 zone viable within a day or two. Meanwhile, the miners are under pressure, with the ETF of GDX -3.9%, making for a new historic low in the $12.50s.


sp'60min

GDX, monthly

Summary

The price action in the miners remains an absolute dismal performance, as Gold itself is actually a touch higher today.

Clearly, the market is still pricing in 'industry capitulation' this spring/summer.

Not all of the famous gold/silver miners are going to be around by end 2016.
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As for equities, yes.. its choppy... and remains weak... but I'm guessing 1857 will hold into early February.
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notable weakness, TWTR -5.8% @ $16.90..  go tweet that!
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2.13pm.. Oil -3.4%.. and that is really putting pressure on the broader market...

sp -7pts @ 1873...

Clown finance TV giving some coverage to CHK, -14% @ $3.04....   on track for total implosion.
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Equity bulls got to hold the 1857 low..

For the moment, VIX is showing a major divergence, as it remains well below the recent high of 30.
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2.30pm.. Well, its typical turn time...

sp'15min

Messy day...  bulls need to hold here.. and push UP into the close.

Oil -3.2%... sure ain't helping. Next inventory reports are Ah Wed' and Thursday (due to the holiday).
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2.45pm.. sp'1865....  8pts from breaking the Friday low.  What a trainwreck.... from 1901 to 1865.. another 36pt (1.8%) swing.

VIX 27.50.. still divergent... showing ZERO sign of hyper upside... yet.

1pm update - baby bull flag

The sp'500 breaks a new intra low of 1881.. a full 20pts (1.0%) from the earlier high of 1901. Price structure though is offering a baby bull flag, with renewed upside into the close/early Wednesday. Oil remains a problem for the market, with WTIC Oil -2.0% in the $28s.


sp'60min

USO'daily2

Summary

Little to add.

Despite the ongoing weakness, we're still due a rally into next week... but clearly, its going to be damn choppy.. not least as Oil remains broadly weak.
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notable weakness...

CHK -10% in the $3.10s
FCX -4.7% inthe $4.10s
TWTR -5.4% in the $16.90s
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back at 2pm

12pm update - messing with everyone

Mr Market is really messing with the minds of those watching the intraday nonsense, with the sp' swinging to a new intra low of sp'1883, but now rebounding from the hourly 10MA.. set for a daily close >1900. A bounce into the next FOMC remains on track.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

... sure is a bit of an unstable mess, right?

For those watching the minute by minute swings.. this is getting me dizzy.

A very messy 5-7 days of choppy bounce appear underway.

Next Tues/Wednesday... will Gartman go bullish?
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VIX update from Mr T



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time for tea.. and biscuits

11am update - sunshine for the bull maniacs

Despite a rather significant cool down from pre-market gains (sp+30pts @ 1910) to an early low of 1885, the market still looks set for a daily close >1900. VIX is naturally cooling, -4% in the 25s, and looks set for the 20/18 zone by next Wednesday.


sp'60min2

VIX'60min

Summary

It is clearly a bit of a mess... as the market is battling hard to solidify gains.

It seems highly probable that sp'1857 is a short term floor... headed for 1940/60.. before resuming to the 1700s. The only issue is how long that might take... February.. or a more choppy decline into March/April.

In any case.. the 1600s look a comfortable target, no later than May/June.

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Here in London city...

Icy sun

Next full moon... Jan'24th

Most of everything is frozen.. but the sunshine sure does help.
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time to cook

10am update - opening gains.. but shaky

US equities are making yet another attempt to rally, but despite looking distinctly shaky in the opening 20mins, a net daily gain looks due. Regardless of any short term bounce into the next FOMC, the mid term outlook remains absolutely clear, with the sp'1700s highly probable after the next bounce. 


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

*opening reversal candle in the VIX... with a black-fail candle for the indexes.

Daily cycles argue AGAINST any further equity downside in the near term, and so I'm dismissing the opening 20mins of weakness.
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So... pre-market gains of 30pts.. and we're already at just +6pts.

Overall though, bearish momentum in the short term should lessen, and in theory, we should comfortably hold the Friday low of sp'1857.

For the moment, I sure ain't getting hysterical about the initial cooling.

It should be clear... whatever degree of upside we get into the next FOMC... it will make for more reasonable level to re-short from.

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time for some sun... back soon

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are significantly higher, sp +30pts, we're set to open at 1910. Broad upside into the next FOMC of Jan 27th is expected, probably to the 1960s. Sustained action >2K looks out of range.


sp'60min

Summary

Well, its Tuesday... and all of the doomer chat over the long weekend has amounted to nothing.

We are clearly due a bounce, having cooled from 2081 to 1857 across 13 trading days.

Right now, it would seem we'll max out next Tue/Wed' afternoon in the 1960s.

From there, next wave should take us to the 1750/25 zone.
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early movers...

AAPL +1.3% @ $98s
DIS +1.3% @ $95s
FCX +4.1%
NFLX +2.1%

TVIX -10.3% in the $9.40s. The 6s look viable next week... and I will be a likely buyer there.
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Update from an increasingly bearish (mid term) Oscar



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Overnight action...

Japan: very unstable session, +0.5% @ 17048
China: messy open, but then climbing, +3.2% @ 3007, a natural back test to 3400s looks probable before next wave to 2500s.

Germany: currently +2.2% @ 9730

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Have a good Tuesday