Whilst the broader US equity market saw minor weakness across the day, the VIX notably struggled to hold gains (intra high 13.67), settling -0.6% @ 12.80. Near term offers a moderate chance at a brief spike to the 15s, before resuming back lower.
VIXdaily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX is low...at best..the mid 15s - where there is a rather obvious price gap, that would match up with the low sp'1970s.
The big VIX 20 threshold looks unlikely in the remainder of the year.
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US equities closed slightly higher, sp +1pt @ 1997. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.6% respectively. Near term outlook still offers the low sp'1970s, before the broader uptrend resumes.
sp'60min
Summary
A somewhat naturally sombre day of minor chop for the US capital markets, things should be more dynamic tomorrow.
All things considered, I still think we have a fairly high probability of at least slipping to the low sp'1970s.
I just can't see any significant buying until we first test the 50 day MA, now at 1972.
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Sunset at Mt. Doom (live stream link subject to change every few days).
Bardabunga remains a viable black swan for NW Europe this winter.. but for now... the volcano itself remains quiet (aside from quakes)... all the action so far is merely in a nearby fissure.
Equities continue to see minor chop, with the sp'500 having turned fractionally positive.. if briefly. A daily close in the low sp'2000s is possible, but there still looks to be viable downside to the low 1970s.
sp'15min
Summary
Without question, price action is a bit of a mess.
A fair few are calling this a B wave, but really... whatever you want to call it... it is certainly 'choppy'.
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Oil has notable gains of 1.0%... whilst Nat' gas still looks set to fall -2.8%
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3.18pm.. a nano bull flag.... suggestive of upside into the close.
Regardless, I'll still be seeking another wave lower into the Friday close. Right now, with price action as muted as it is, the sp'1970s no longer look viable until next Monday.
Equities remain a touch weak at sp'1990. Price structure is still offering another wave lower into the 1970s before the Friday close. Metals remain weak, Gold -$12, with Silver -2.1%, this is naturally pressuring the miners, GDX -1.1%
sp'60min
GDX, daily
Summary
A pretty quiet (if somewhat understandable) day.
Best guess... we'll still push lower.. and unlike today.. there is no QE-pomo tomorrow for the bears to have to fight against.
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Notable weakness: SDRL -2.8%, the lower gas/oil prices are not helping.
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2.27pm.. baby bull flag on the micro cycles... much like yesterday...
Equities remain a little lower, and there looks to be fairly high likelihood of another wave lower before the close. Primary downside target remains sp'1972/70 zone.. with VIX 15s. Meanwhile... metals remain relentlessly weak.
sp'60min
Summary
It remains a tedious and somewhat frustrating day.
Minor chop...with underlying bias to the downside.
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*I hold a very minor long-index position from sp'1991... will look to add, if low 1970s.
1.28pm.. for those watching... things starting to get interesting...
US equities continue to see very minor weak chop. Overall price structure is still suggestive of the low sp'1970s, with VIX 15s. Metals are very weak, Gold -$12, with Silver -2.0%. Oil is flat, but nat gas is lower by a very significant -3.2%
sp'60min
Summary
It remains a pretty frustrating day of minor chop.
All things considered, the low sp'1970s STILL look likely..before we break back into the 2000s.
US equities are becoming increasingly weak.. with the low sp'1970s very viable later today.. along with VIX 15s. Metals continue to slide, Gold -$10, with Silver -1.8%.
sp'60min
Summary
Market looks on track....
sp'1972/00... with VIX 15s.... whether later today..or tomorrow.. makes no difference.
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Equities open lower, but so far there is simply no real downside power. It would seem unlikely we'll see 2000s before 1970s though. Metals are weak, Gold -$8, Silver -1.7%.. a mere 18 cents above the 2013 low. Oil/gas are lower by -1.6% & -0.6% respectively.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*VIX is higher by just 2%.. and we have an opening black candle.
On this occasion, I'd defer to the equity price structure, and still look for VIX 15s.. in the near term.
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notable weakness, SDRL -2.4%...a clear 16% decline since recent earnings. The lower oil/gas prices sure aren't helping!
strength: airlines, DAL, UAL, but the gains are marginal..and even they will turn red, if sp'1970s.
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10.14am.. hourly MACD cycle on most indexes set to rollover again this morning... despite the opening chop.
The low sp'1970s remain a valid target, unless >1993.
Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -7pts, we're set to open at 1988. Metals continue to slide, Gold -$6, with Silver -1.1%, just 30 cents above the 2013 low. Equity bears have a fair opportunity of the low sp'1970s before the weekend.
sp'60min
Summary
*Oil is notably weak, -1.3%
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So, we're set to open a little lower, and with the break back under the hourly 10MA, there is reasonable opportunity for the low 1970s. We're only talking about a 1% decline, a 'mini-washout'..if you will.
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Update from Mr C.
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Good wishes for Thursday
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9.01am sp -9pts.. set for 1986. The low 1970s look very viable.
*to be clear, I will strongly consider picking up a secondary long-block in the 1975/70 zone.
9.42am.. minor declines..but still.. we're still broadly weak... not least in commodity land.
It was just another day of minor chop for the US equity market, with the sp'500 settling +7pts at 1995. Thursday will be the thirteenth year since the geo-political marker point... that was 9/11.
sp'monthly3'e
Summary
*to close today, a simple 'bare bones' chart covering the last twenty years. Its an arithmetic scale, and it really shows the powerful gains since the Oct'2011 low of sp'1074.
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I wasn't particularly following the market that closely in the early 2000s, but I certainly noticed the post 9/11 decline, from sp'1096 to 944 across just 5 trading days. Back then of course, the market had already been in a very strong multi-month decline from the tech bubble high of spring 2000.
Despite rallying into spring 2002, the market would see another strong wave lower to floor @ sp'768 in Oct'2002... before Greenspan helped 'inspire' the property bubble.
For many out there... September 2001 is becoming a very hazy and faded memory, although perhaps that is a good thing.
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Video - Gordon T long and the 'Dollar Vigilante'
A mixed discussion about all sorts of econ/financial issues... pretty good.
*thanks to poster DC for highlighting this to me.
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Looking ahead
Thursday morning will no doubt be a particularly sombre one in the US market, as the usual 9/11 remembrance is observed across the morning.
In terms of data points, there are the usual weekly jobless claims and the US Treasury budget, but really, those aren't considered that important lately.. are they?
*there is QE-pomo of around $2bn or so.... bears beware.
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US equities closed a little higher, sp +7pts @ 1995. The two leaders -
Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.1% and 0.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers the
low sp'1970s, with VIX 15s... before new highs later in the month.
sp'daily5
R2K
Summary
Suffice to say, the R2K remains a real laggard. The 1080 threshold remains critical. All doomer bears seeking a major sign of 'trouble ahead' for the autumn need to see a decisive break of 1080.
Right now, considering the 'minor chop' price action, that look unlikely this month.
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