Monday, 14 January 2013

Volatility a touch higher

Whilst the main indexes closed broadly flat, the VIX managed a slightly higher close, +1.2%, to settle @ 13.52. Its going to take a near 20% gain just to get to the first gap level of VIX'16. The upper gap of VIX 18' looks way out of range in the near term.       





The hourly and daily charts are pretty clear, the obvious retracement (to the upside) is somewhere in the VIX 16-18 zone. I suppose sp'1440 might equate to VIX 16s, with sp'1425 and VIX 18. I find that latter highly unlikely though, considering the strength being shown on the index weekly/monthly charts.

The weekly chart looks especially bizarre after the opening candle of the year, and after that New Years slam down, it now seems unlikely that we'll see VIX 20s until March/April.

If we see  the low sp'1500s in Feb/early March, that'd surely equate to VIX 12/11..even 10s.

More later..on the indexes.

Closing Brief

The market began the week with a mostly mute Monday, trading 1472/65. The close was a touch weak, but it really was nothing of significance. Bears can only get moderately excited if we trade below last weeks low of 1451..and right now that is probably at least 2-3 days away.

The closing hourly index charts...





Frankly, a dull Monday. Tuesday can only be more dynamic in terms of price action, surely?

The VIX is so very low, the near term direction, it would seem is upward..probably a brief spike to the low 16s?

A little strength in the $ would really help those on the bearish side seeking a 2-4 day equity retracement.
The usual bits and pieces across the evening.

3pm update - its still minor noise

We've seen yet another small rally from the early 1465 low, but so far..its holding under the 1474 mid-Sept high. Who wants to go long @ 1472/73 ? I didn't think so. Near term best guess remains a retracement under last weeks low of 1451...somewhere around 1445/40.

sp'60min4 - retracements



News that DELL might be taken private certainly helps to suck up the tech' sector a little, even the corporate dog that is HPQ is up 5-6%, although I'd most certainly still be seeking the $10 level later this year.

back after the close..on what is a very sleepy Monday.

2pm update - late Monday manderings

Mr Market seems stuck around sp'1469/67. Seems no one wants to get involved today, I can only imagine trading volume is holiday-level. The VIX is battling to hold slight gains of 1-2%




Underlying momentum on the daily charts is indeed ticking lower..but we're still net positive, and by definition the trend is still broadly higher.

Weekly charts show how the 1474 level is indeed holding right now, but as I keep noting, the Trans/R2K are way over that.

In fact, the trans broke a new high earlier...

Clearly though, its at the upper edge of its channel, so a pull back is very viable, if only to the mid 5400s.

12pm update - minor choppy Monday

It remains a very quiet opening to the week. The market is still stuck below the key sp'1474 high, but is certainly not showing even any moderate momentum to the downside. VIX remains in the lowly 13s, with the dollar a touch lower. Metals are higher, but really..its a day of..nothing.

sp'60min - retracements



Late day weakness? With the VIX so low, you'd have to think the probability is more likely on a little weakness into the close.

Yet, there seems no power either way.

Perhaps a simple doji candle on the daily charts would indeed be the close fitting to start the week.

*I remain short, seeking the low sp'1440s later this week. Thats barely 2% lower, and it would seem, thats all the bears can realistically hope for.


Market remains mostly dull..a few notable aspects..

BTU...breaking the rising trend..and showing renewed weakness today. Obvious target is $20..but thats going to be tough to hit, if the market only retraces to 1440..even 1425.

VIX remains flat...still waiting for a brief spike into the 16s

RIG, a black warning candle of a top...

A few days lower, before renewed strength into Feb/March? Probably

11am update - still quiet

Very slight opening weakness to begin the week, but there is an awful lot of corporate and econ-data for Mr Market to use as an excuse for a minor wash-out move lower. The VIX is struggling to hold 2% gains, but a close in the 14s (+6/7%) still seems reasonable to target.




There is just a lack of momentum either way right now. Its already a little tiresome!

I suppose the most entertaining thing so far today is AAPL...

A brief move into the 490s...and perhaps..if the main indexes do manage to retrace to 1440/25 by the end of this week, AAPL will have finally seen a wash-out move into the 475 area?

The stock remains surrounded by hysteria though, and we can already see the bull maniacs are trying to buy it up..if only for an intra-day trade.

10am update - Monday morning chop

Good morning. Mr Market still seems largely asleep after a quiet weekend. We're trading a touch lower across most indexes, but really..its all noise. Bears can't take any decline seriously until we are below last weeks low of sp'1451. and even then, we might easily only retrace lower to 1445/40.




There is not much to say really, its relatively quiet. Considering the smaller 15/60min cycles, I'm really not expecting anything of today.

We'll probably close..flat.

Those who are looking for a retracement should look for at least a little strength in the VIX, which is +3%, but still in the 13s. Its a long way up..just to get to the 16 gap level.

UPDATE 10.20am... VIX is trying to break into the 14s.

A close over the daily 10MA @ 14.30 would be important