Wednesday 12 October 2016

The strengthening dollar

US equities closed broadly weak, sp -26pts @ 2136 (intra low 2128). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.6% and -1.8% respectively. VIX settled +14.8% @ 15.36. Near term outlook offers renewed equity upside, at least to the 2161/63 gap zone.




A far more interesting day in market land, as equities saw the first significant decline in around a month. The break into the sp'2120s was a surprise.

The afternoon saw a rather clear floor of sp'2128... with a moderate closing hour recovery. It'd seem we'll see 2145 tomorrow morning... a little chop. Then its a case of whether the FOMC minutes will be enough to grind the market to a close in the 2150s.

On balance, today really didn't change anything. Few noticed.. but Copper and WTIC oil prices both held up rather well, certainly relative to the broader market and strengthening dollar.

USD, weekly2

As noted on the chart, the scenario will need to get trashed on any move into the DXY 98s, which would be decisively above the July 25th high of 97.62. Any move >DXY 100 would really change the bigger picture. We shall see.

Goodnight from London