Monday 17 September 2012


With the indexes moderately declining, the VIX remained flat. It remains an entirely fearless market.


VIX, daily


VIX in the mid 14s reflects an incredibly confident market. Considering the increasing unrest in the middle-east - amongst many other issues, its amazing to see a market so utterly complacent, but then..the Bernanke has our backs..right ?

The VIX does look set for at least a few higher closes later this week. A move to 16/18 seems very likely, but that will probably be it for this new cycle.

With QE3 underway, primary trends need to be respected. 

Closing Brief

A relatively quiet Monday, but it will suffice to continue what is a topping phase in the indexes.





There isn't too much to note today. Arguably, the transports/Rus'2000 are again leading the way, and warning of declines in the main sp/dow indexes later this week. A move to 1430 seems very viable, with VIX in 16/18 zone. Considering the underlying QE now underway, it seems very unlikely we'll take out the recent low of 1430, never mind the more important low of 1397.

So, a move to 1430...yet another higher low..and then take out the recent high of 1474.

For the bears, this continues to be rough weather.

3pm update - on track for sp'1430

The day is still kinda slow, but a few things are going on. Oil has snapped lower, sucking down Gold/Silver with it.

Yet, the VIX is flat, the main indexes are clearly still in a topping process, that may take a few more days to complete.




Transports continues to weaken, with the Rus'2000 small cap' starting to follow.

Everything looks on track. sp'1450 is first soft support, I believe that will fail to hold, and then a further wave lower, later in the week.

I remain short, and seeking an exit at 1430.

Lots more after the close

12pm update - rolling over..slowly

A very muted day so far. Considering the issue that we're now post QE3 announcement, at least some level of retracement lower seems very likely.

First target is sp'1430.





The tranny may again be the leading warning of downside later this week.

All the daily cycles are close to confirming the first phase of levelling out, and a 3-5 day down cycle seems very likely.

I remain short, looking to exit at 1430.
back at 3pm

10am update - minor down cycle due

Good morning, and welcome to another week, we're already now into the second half of September.

Without question we are due a multi-day down cycle, a move to 1430/20 seems likely, but that will almost it. So, all those bears looking for autumnal doom, err, no...they are going to be disappointed.




A little weakness, but we could still close flat or even a little higher today.

Regardless, I do expect at leat 1430 to be hit, probably by late Wednesday or Thursday.

I remain short, and will look to exit around the 1430/20 area.

back at 12pm