Daily Index Cycle update

US equities broke another set of new historic highs, with sp 2087 and Dow 18086. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued broad upside... to the sp'2125/50 zone.


sp'daily5

Dow

R2K

Summary

*the R2K remains especially notable in that it is very close to breaking above the year long trading range. Once the double top of 1212/13 is taken out.. there is comfortable upside to 1250/75 zone by early spring.
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Little else to add.... on this Christmas eve.

Volatility melting into the holidays

With equities breaking new historic highs in the Dow and sp'500 (with Trans/R2K set to follow.. within days), the VIX was naturally melting lower for a sixth day, -2.9% @ 14.37. By year end, VIX is set to hit the 12/11s.


VIX'daily3

Summary

Six days down for the VIX.. probably another 1-2 to go.
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities managed a not surprising sixth day of gains, with new historic highs in the Dow (18086) and sp'500 (2087), the latter settling -0.3pts @ 2081. Near term outlook is for the 2095/2105 zone by year end, but with the R2K/Trans both set to break new historic highs.. the sp'2300s look due by late spring.


sp'60min

Summary

Well... that concludes today....

Tis the holiday break....

For those that are about to disappear into the sunset.... Merry Christmas... 

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*bits and pieces to wrap up the day... across the afternoon.

12pm update - closing hour present wrapping

US equity indexes continued to hold moderate gains, with marginal new historic highs in the Dow and sp'500. VIX is naturally still melting lower, -4% in the low 14s, the 12/11s look due by year end. Oil remains weak, -2.4%. Metals are seeing minor chop, Gold +$1.. which is helping the miners  bounce, GDX +2.7%


sp'60min

Summary

It is notable that the hourly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle has already fully reset.. whilst actual prices are at historic highs.

Another push into the 2090s looks due this Friday.. with sp'2100s next week.
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Notable strength: BAC +0.8% @ $18.08.
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back at the close.. to wrap up the day

11am update - holiday melt higher

US equities are broadly higher for a sixth day, with another (if marginal) new historic high in the Dow. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, are both set to break new historic cycles... and the latter will be especially important. Metals remain seeing minor chop, Gold +$1, whilst Oil remains weak.. -2.9%


R2K, daily

USO, daily'2

Summary

R2K @ 1208.. a mere 5pts from breaking the double top of 1212/13.
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Notable gains: BAC +0.6% @ $18.05... which for me.. is rather an important signal.
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Other than that... little to add.

10am update - opening minor gains

US equities open a little higher, on what will no doubt be micro moves this Christmas eve. Metals remain somewhat weak, Gold -$1. Oil has opened sig' lower, -2.5%, but is still holding the micro double floor from last Tue/Thursday.


sp'60min

Summary

*not the hourly MACD cycle.. already fully reset.. upper bol' is offering 2090/95 by the Friday close.
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A lot of the usual end-year issues are arising..  but overall... its a case of micro chop.. with underlying upside. Today's close is of ZERO consequence.

A break back under the giant sp'2000 threshold looks unlikely for some considerable time.... never mind the bigger issue of the R2K.

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Executed two trades this morning, but hey... what I do should be of little interest to some of you. After all, I'm just a contrarian who should change his name... right?

Am utterly tired of hearing the same bullshit that I've been told for the past FIVE years.

Oh, and then there is the notion that the market will crash if the Fed raise rates 25bps next year, right? Well, that's what many of you out there still believe.  
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yours... repositioned for early 2015.

back at 11am.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning, on this Christmas Eve. Futures are moderately higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open at 2086. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$5. Oil is weak, -1.7%... in the $55s.


sp'daily5

Summary

*awaiting weekly jobless claims at 8.30am
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Trading will be naturally very light today.. by 10am... market will likely move into nano churn mode.

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update from Oscar...


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Have a great Christmas eve... market closes early at 1pm EST.

The scariest chart for all doomer bears

Whilst the main market broke yet another set of new historic highs, the looming breakout in the R2K is without question far more important. Once the R2K puts in a decisive monthly close in the 1220s.. or higher, it will signal a massive warning of much higher levels.


R2K, monthly

Summary

So far then.. the R2K is higher by 2.5% this month. Today, it hit a new cycle high of 1207, a mere 6pts shy of the July high of 1213.

Once we see a monthly close in the 1220s - a decisive move above the double top of March/July, it will be a critical bullish signal for where the broader equity market is headed.
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Dow 1002pt swing across 5 days

Maybe the market is starting to get used to these hyper-ramps, but to reflect upon a 1002pt gain since last Tuesday's close.. is incredible.

Dow, monthly

Most notable... just 3 monthly net declines this year... and only one of those - January, could even be said to be 'significant'. Dow 20k looks to be a very viable target by late spring.
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Looking ahead

Christmas eve will see the weekly jobless claims, along with the EIA oil report.

US equity markets will close early at 1pm.
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Outlook for 2015

I've had some submissions already,, keep on sending them.. see HERE for details.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes continued to break new historic highs, with sp' 2086 and Dow 18069. The near term outlook offers another 0.5-1.0% by year end.... with sp'2095/2105. The R2K is set to break above a year long trading range... which will be an extremely bullish signal for the broader market for 2015.


sp'daily5

Dow

R2K

Summary

*as I have been noting for some weeks... the equity bears should be terrified about the implications of a monthly R2K close >1220.
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I am dismissing the black-fail candles on some of the indexes today. It is holiday trading, and price action remains increasingly choppy. Without question though.. the up wave from last week continues.
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Closing update from Riley


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a little more later...