Volatility continues to melt lower

With US equities seeing some minor weak chop in the late afternoon, the VIX tried to hold minor gains (intraday high 13.75), but failed, closing -1.2% @ 13.25. Near term outlook is for sp'1895/1905, which should equate to VIX back in the 12/11s.


VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add, on what was a very quiet day.
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If the market likes the jobs data tomorrow morning, indexes will jump 1% or so, and that should easily be enough to kick the VIX lower into the weekend, probably into the low 13s..even 12s.
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more later on the indexes.

Closing Brief

US equities closed the day with minor chop, sp -0.3pts @ 1883. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for the market to break into the 1895/1905 zone, whether tomorrow, or early next week.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add, on what was a day when the market merely settled into a holding pattern ahead of the Friday jobs data.
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*I hold heavy long overnight, would prefer an exit late Friday, but if I have to hold into next week, that is fine with me.
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more later..on the VIX

3pm update - don't get lost in the mild hysteria

Mr Market continues to see minor weak chop, with the sp' vulnerable to downside to sp'1875. Yet, any retail amateur trader getting lost in mild bearish hysteria is likely setting themselves up for a difficult Friday morning.


sp'60min

Summary

Hourly lower bol'...offers the bears 1875 or so.. in the closing hour..

It is very likely, a last ditch opportunity for the bears to exit before the sp'1900s..whether tomorrow or next Monday.
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*I hold heavy long overnight, especially in the Oil/Gas drill stocks, DO, RIG, SDRL. Yes..they are all down, but then, I bailed yesterday near the highs..and I'm back in at much lower levels, so I ain't complaining!
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3.18pm.. minor chop..in the low 1880s....

There can be NO excuses. Everyone is getting a chance to re-position ahead of the Friday jobs data. Bears are getting a chance to exit....and bulls are getting the opportunity to buy back in at lower levels - at least in some stocks/sectors.

2pm update - minor down cycle

Market is offering the bears a minor rollover, back to the mid sp'1870s, but in the scheme of things, it is entirely irrelevant. Metals remain weak, Gold -$7, Silver -1.4%. Oil is also weak, -0.6%. Equity bulls have little to prove into today's close.


sp'60min

Summary

*to be clear, by end of today, I do not expect market to be <1875.
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So, we're seeing an hourly cycle rollover, and I realise some will be getting moderately excited ahead of tomorrows jobs data.

Yet.. the bulls have nothing to prove. The recent 1884 high has been decisively broken above.

Even the Nasdaq (I'll highlight it later), has broken descending resistance.

Transports is strong, and close to breaking a new historic high.
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Price action remains outright bullish on the bigger cycles, and anyone shorting the indexes into today's close is vulnerable to getting nuked at the Friday open.

1pm update - minor chop

Mr Market continues to see minor chop, but it is notably holding the sp'1880s. Rest of today looks set for more of the same, as attention turns to the monthly jobs data. Any number >175k net gains, and the mainstream will likely spin it as another sign of the continuing recovery.


sp'daily5

Summary

Little to add right now.
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back at 2pm.

12pm update - on the way to the 1900s

Mr Market continues an inexorable slow and steady climb toward the sp'1900s, whether late Friday..or next week, it really makes no difference. Equity bears are simply powerless, as reflected in the VIX. Metals remain weak, Gold -$7.


sp'daily5

Summary

Suffice to say, we're broadly headed up.
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VIX update from Mr T



*I should note, I certainly like the idea of picking up a considerable VIX call block (Sept/Oct 20-25 strike), but not yet. I'd want to wait at least another 2-3 weeks, if not even early June.

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time for lunch :)

11am update - another push higher

It remains a market of minor chop, but the underlying upside is there for anyone to see. A daily close in the sp'1890s looks due today..or tomorrow. A weekly close in the 1895/1905 zone would really smite the bears. Metals remain weak, Gold -$9, Silver -1.4%


sp'daily5

Summary

Without getting lost in the minor noise, the broader upward trend most certainly continues.

There is next to zero power on the downside, and if the Market likes the monthly jobs data tomorrow morning, then we're set to close the week with new historic highs.
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Look to the Nasdaq....the threshold to close above is clear...

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*I am heavy long, esp' via the OilGas Drillers of DO, RIG, SDRL, My entry this morning was 'reasonable', but I sure didn't catch the lows.

10am update - minor opening chop

May has begun with some minor opening chop, but the underlying upward pressure is clearly still there. A daily close in the 1890s is viable today, but more likely tomorrow. Precious metals are weak, Gold -$9, Silver -1.2%.


sp'monthly

Summary

*most notable, upper bollinger on the big monthly, now offering the 1980s. However, weekly charts will be restrictive in May to the 1920/30s..at most (I estimate).
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**I picked up my 3 drilling stocks again, DO, RIG, and SDRL, will very likely hold into tomorrow, when I am seeking a more sig' push upward.
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Notable weakness: STX -3.8% in the $50.50s, I guess 'better than expected' earnings are just not good enough.


10.05am...minor weakness in the main market..we should get stuck around 1880/78. Could be a day of churn..before the next big move higher.

What is clear..there is NO power on the downside, and with FOMC and GDP out of the way, equity bulls have little to be concerned of..at least for another week or two.

Notable strength, momo stocks... FB, NFLX, TWTR..already building sig' gains.


10.26am.. market trying to bounce from 1878....

Much like the past few days..there just isn't much downside power. 

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +1pt, we're set to open at 1885. Metals are starting a new month weak, Gold -$4, Silver -0.8%. Equity bulls look set to battle broadly higher across at least the first half of May, into the sp'1900/25 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

Welcome to May!

I think there is a fair chance we'll slip 4-6pts lower in the opening hour...which for me, would be a buying level. Certainly, primary weekly trend is to the upside, and the sp'1900s look a given.

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I will be seeking to pick up my drilling stocks again, DO, RIG, and SDRL

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Update from Mr Permabull



Oscar was bearish for a day..and now back on the bull train.. I'm not surprised.
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Good wishes for May trading!


9.22am.. a touch of weakness out there...especially in the metals. . Gold -$10...Silver close to taking out the 2013 low.

I remain looking for sp'1878/75 or so...which should be a shopping zone.


9.41am.. LONG , via DO, RIG, SDRL

The opening drops are in the range I was seeking..so...now I sit back...and see how we trade into the afternoon. I would be content to hold ALL into the Friday jobs data.
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Buy in May, bears stay away?

April saw significant downside for the R2K/Nasdaq, but the broader market only endured moderate declines of 4-5%. April ended relatively well for the bulls, with net monthly gains of 11pts, settling @ sp'1883. The question is, what bodes for the market in the typically troublesome month of May?


sp'monthly

sp'weekly8b

Summary

*I like the count on weekly8b, if correct, we'll max out sometime in mid/late May, early June at the latest. Equity bears should get 2-3 weeks warning before a major snap lower, via a few blue candles.
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So...another month comes to a close, and it is arguably another one for the equity bears to forget. Tomorrow, May'1st will be month'32, since the giant wave from Oct'2011 began - when the market was a mere sp'1074.


Looking ahead

We have the usual jobs data, personal income/outlays, PMI and ISM manufacturing, and construction spending.Yellen is talking early tomorrow morning, and her comments could easily give the market a kick..either way.

*next sig' QE is not until next Monday.
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Permabear drops three drillers

I had a mixed day. I should have exited STX at the open, but no..I held, only to watch STX get ground down across the day. The one solace were the Oil/Gas drilling stocks. I bailed on DO for a very sig' gain, and after some consideration, I also dropped RIG and SDRL. I will look to again pick up  RIG/SDRL, or even all 3 drillers tomorrow morning.

As well as STX long, I'm still holding CHK, but that one is kinda just meandering at present.

Overall, I have ZERO interest in picking up any shorts for at least another few weeks. Whether we rollover in mid/late May..or June., that is very hard to guess right now.

All that I can say...as a self titled permabear, it remains a difficult and nasty market.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes pushed higher into the close, sp +5pts @ 1883. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is for the market to continue higher, into the 1895/1905 zone by the Friday close.


sp'daily5

Dow

Nasdaq

Summary

Suffice to say, the Monday spike low daily candle is arguably a very important one for the equity bears to keep in mind. Certainly, it is highly suggestive of a short term floor, and the fact we're already 33pts higher is supportive of it.
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Both the Dow/SP' look set to close the week at new historic highs.  Whether the R2K/Nasdaq will break new highs in May, that remains a key question.
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Closing update from Riley



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a little more later...