Saturday 17 November 2018

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a broadly bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -2.2% (Dow), -2.1% (Nasdaq comp'), -1.6% (sp'500), -1.4% (R2K), -1.1% (NYSE comp'), to +0.6% (Trans). Outlook offers s/t choppy upside into Thanksgiving, and then resuming lower.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes


The spx settled -44pts (1.6%) to 2736, having swung upward from a Thursday low of 2670. Note the macd (black line) at 1.774, and set to turn outright negative, for the first time since March 2016. The Oct' low of 2603 looks vulnerable in early December, with secondary support of the Feb' low of 2532.

Nasdaq comp'

The Nasdaq settled -2.1% at 7247. Price structure across the last four weeks could be argued is a bear flag, offering far lower levels into December. Support 6922, then the Feb' low of 6630.


The mighty Dow settled -2.2% to 25413. Note resistance around 26k, where the sellers have been appearing. Thanksgiving week offers a challenge to the 50dma in the 25700/800s, but regardless of any holiday week gains, further downside into early December appears probable. Support 24122, and then the April low of 23344. Any sustained price action under the 23300s would be suggestive of grander cooling to the giant 20K threshold.

NYSE comp'

The master index settled -1.1% to 12400. Note that the nyse comp' is one of two indexes that have recently traded under the Feb' lows. Support 11820, and then psy' 10K, near the June 2016 low of 9918.


The R2K settled -1.4% at 1527. Support 1459, and then the Feb' low of 1436. Technically, this index is mid/long term broken.


The transports was very resilient to the broader market, climbing for a third consecutive week, managing a moderate net weekly gain of +0.6% to 10583. S/t price structure could be argued is a bear flag. Support 9757, and then 9k. A sixth consecutive net weekly decline in WTIC is clearly helping to prop up transportation stocks.


Five indexes settled sig' lower, whilst one settled moderately higher.

The Dow lead the way lower, whilst the Transports was resilient.

Price structure across the past four weeks is a viable bear flag, offering further very sig' downside into end month/early December.

YTD price performance:

The Nasdaq is holding a yearly gain of 5.0%, with the Dow +2.8%, and the spx +2.3%. The Transports is -0.3%, the R2K -0.5%, and the nyse comp' -3.2%.

Looking ahead

Key earnings; JD, LB (Mon'), TGT, LOW, KSS, GPS, ADI (Tues'), DE (Wed')

It will be a very light 3.5 trading day week, and for most, it should be a case of 'turn your screen off, and come back Nov'26th.'

M - Housing market index
T - Housing starts
W - Durable goods orders, weekly jobs, consumer sent', existing home sales, leading indi', and the latest EIA Pet' and NG reports.

T - CLOSED, for Thanksgiving
F - Early CLOSE at 1.00pm EST

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Have a good weekend

*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.