Wednesday 22 July 2015

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -5pts @ 2115 (intra low 2110). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers further weakness to the sp'2100 threshold, the lower gap zone of 2080 remains a valid target, but VIX 15s look increasingly difficult, as the market simply isn't concerned.




*I am pretty tired.. have already fallen asleep once this evening.. so this shall be super brief

A truck load of earnings due at the close.. not least QCOM. Considering recent price action in INTC and AAPL, you'd have to be pretty bullish to consider QCOM will not get a post earnings smack down.

Day'2 for the equity bears, but clearly, the price action is only moderate weakness, we're just not seeing any real downside power.

At best.. sp'2080.. with VIX up the 14.70/15.30 zone. The latter though won't be easy.

*yours truly remains moderately long VIX, seeking an exit in that zone, but it sure is taking some time.

4.07pm   QCOM earnings... come in mixed...

Daily chart shows multiple resistance around $66. I do not expect QCOM to be able to break/hold above $68.

a daily wrap at 8pm EST...

3pm update - a second day lower

Good afternoon. Equities remain moderately weak, with most indexes set to close moderately weak. Further weakness looks due, at least to the sp'2100 threshold. Metal are broadly weak, Gold -$6. Oil is seeing some rather severe downside, -3.4% in the 49s. The March lows look highly vulnerable.


VIX daily3


Well, I'm back in the metropolis of London. If all goes well, my next trip out of the city will be a via a one way ticket to pirate land! Am pretty exhausted!

As for equities, weakness for a second day, but clearly nothing significant.
With the VIX now -0.9%, it does reflect a market that is showing the underlying strength.

notable weakness: AAPL -4.3%, MSFT -3.9%..  tech monsters looking tired.

 Copper miners, FCX -4.5%, TCK -3.2%.. as copper prices -1.9% @ $2.42.

Still trying to catchup...

GDX -0.4%.... trying to put in a reversal from the mid $13s.. but looks utterly destroyed on the bigger weekly/month cycles.

Regardless of any short term bounce - as also applies to Gold/Silver, the miners look pretty doomed... GDX to 12/10s sure doesn't look overly bold within a few months... not least as Gold is headed to the giant $1k threshold.

3.20pm. BAC 2.1%... into the mid $18s. Did they have earnings today? A monthly close in the $18s would be a pretty clear breakout.. much as INTC <$29 is a major fail.

Some rather strong disparity between sector... energy/resources remain broadly weak.. as King dollar remains real close to breaking back into the DXY 100s.

3.45pm.. the rats are getting a little twitchy into the close.... as we're set to close lower for two consecutive days. Ohh the humanity... is it time for one of the fed officials to threaten QE4 yet?

An unusual day

Whilst equities settled moderately lower, it was a somewhat bizarre day for yours truly. For once... a little glimpse into my world.

The picture above is of Newlyn Harbour, seen from a rather rocky beach in Penzance. It has been over a decade since I last visited the most south westerly town in the UK.

As a child, I must have spent a few thousand hours in what for me, remains a truly mystical place.

The last time I visited Penzance, broadband was only beginning to be rolled out in the UK, and the notion of WIFI via a tiny mobile device plugged into a laptop was a mere dream.

Maybe I am just easily impressed, but having my trading screen working flawlessly whilst sitting next to the towering sea wall... its pretty incredible how far we've come since the late 1990s.

As for why I was at the coast today, I was there for a property viewing. I'm looking to leave London city, be in a better home, in the town that I often dream of. Regardless of the market nonsense, at least this deeply personal aim of mine is finally set to come true by the early autumn.

Looking ahead

Wednesday will see House price index, existing home sales, and the usual EIA report.

*more corp' earnings are due of course.

Still a patchy service ;)

Yours truly 'might' post something intraday tomorrow as I will make the long journey home. I have never tried wifi on an express train before. If that doesn't work out so great (or if I'm more interested in staring out the window), I will instead likely return for the closing hour at 3pm EST.

Ever since I started writing this blog in spring 2012 I have occasionally wondered if I would ever conclude with something different... and tonight I can.

Goodnight from Penzance.

The promenade.. .all to myself