VIX resumes cooling mode

With equities closing significantly higher, sp +48pts @ 1969, the VIX was naturally on the slide, settling -10.4% @ 24.90. Near term outlook is for continued equity upside, and that should equate to VIX at the 20 threshold... if not the teens by next week's FOMC.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3
 

 Summary

Little to add 

The VIX has resumed lower, with a bearish MACD cross on the daily cycle. At minimum, VIX is set to remain subdued into early next week. Naturally, there will be a tendency for some market concern into the FOMC meeting. VIX looks set for the teens.. if briefly, at some point next week.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed significantly higher, sp +48pts at 1969. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 2.8% and 2.2% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued upside to at least the 2000/2010, but with 'best bull case' of 2050/70 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add.

A clear day for the bull maniacs, and regardless of any minor down waves tomorrow.. or this week... market looks headed higher into FOMC week.

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*I'm on the sidelines overnight, will consider long-DIS.. or long-USO tomorrow morning.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - bears being ground to dust

US equities are seeing some notable renewed upside, as Mr Market is no doubt intent on grinding the equity bears OUT.. ahead of next Thursday's FOMC. Primary upside is the sp'2000/2010 zone... but there is almost equally high probability of the 2050/70 zone before things unravel.


sp'daily5

sp'weekly2

Summary

*note the blue candle. A back test of the broken trend would offer 2050 or so next week.
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Suffice to note.. eyes on the daily/weekly cycles, both of which are clarifying short term upside into the latter half of next week.
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*I will be on the sidelines overnight.. as my target on DIS not hit, and I am not in the mood to chase it higher.

I am considering a long Oil (via USO) trade, but not until tomorrow morning. Price structure is bullish into next week, at least to the $50 threshold.
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back at the close

2pm update - breaking to the upside

After some chop, it would seem the market has now put in a solid floor for today at sp'1946, and is set to close higher than current levels. The VIX is naturally cooling, -8% in the 25s..  the 20 threshold looks an easy target by Friday/early next week.


sp'15min

DIS, 15min

Summary

*I had eyes on DIS for $102.50/25 this hour, but with a break above the pennant.. it now looks super bullish to the 105/106s.

As things are, I won't chase anything higher.. so.. that one I'll let go.
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As for the broader market... a sig' net daily gain, with a close in the 1960s is now probable.

That sets up a break above last weeks high of 1975.. and onward to the big 2000.
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back at 3pm

1pm update - chop chop

US equities remain significantly higher. Price structure is still offering some form of bullish flag/pennant.. with a  break above last Wednesday's high of sp'1975 due this week. Broadly, the market looks headed into the 2000s... as many are increasingly seeing no rate hike until the Oct or Dec meetings.


sp'15min

Summary

Little to add.

However you might want to count or draw lines on this nonsense, we've put in a series of higher lows... a double floor of 1867.. 1903... and last Friday's 1911.

Who really wants to be shorting into that?

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DIS,15min

Its tempting.. but not from the $103s... and not at this time.

back at 2pm.

12pm update - baby bull flag

US equities continue to see a little chop - from an early high of sp'1960, but leaning on the downside. An afternoon floor in the 1945/40 zone would be natura - completeing a baby bull flag, before resuming higher into the close. Daily MACD cycles are turning positive across the main US indexes.


sp'15min

sp'daily5

Summary

Little to add.

Best guess... continued cooling to the sp'1945/40 zone... by the 2pm hour.

From there... UP.
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VIX update from Mr T.



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I've eyes on DIS... seeking a long in the mid/low $102s.

11am update - minor wave lower

Not surprisingly, the market volatility continues, with a retrace of the powerful opening gains underway. There will no doubt be further down swings in the days ahead.. but broadly.. .we're likely headed to the big sp'2000 threshold. Mr Market will want to grind those shorts OUT into the FOMC, before next opportunity of a down wave.


sp'15min

Summary

No doubt a fair few bears are already screaming 'see!.. we're already fading away'.

Thing is, those same people were touting the end of the world last week, instead, we've merely put in yet another higher low.

notable weakness: NFLX -3% in the $95s..... ugly!

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I've eyes on DIS... and will almost certainly be leaving AAPL alone (long side) for some weeks.

DIS, 15min

DIS looks a viable short term long into FOMC week. First target is the 105/106 zone.. and considering we were in the 103s already today.. that looks an easy target.

All things considered, things are looking on track.
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*notable stomach churning warning...

Ms. Quick with Buffett.. 11.30am EST.. clown finance TV.. channel'1.
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11.42am... sp'15min

Best guess... 1945/40 zone or so... then back UP

10am update - opening gains

US equities open significantly higher, with the sp' +38pts @ 1959. Regardless of any retrace into the afternoon/early tomorrow, the market should comfortably break above the psy' level of 2K. From there, it is merely a case of getting stuck somewhere in the 2010s, or even the 2050/70 zone.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

There is a lot to cover.. but there is a long day ahead.

Suffice to note.. market now has three key lows.. 1867, 1903, and 1911. I sure don't think we'll be trading under there for some weeks.

Daily MACD cycles are in the process of achieving some important bullish crosses.. but more on that later.


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*I EXITED AAPL-long from the $111.70s.... a moderate gain, since my entry was not so great (late Thursday, 110.10s).

Right now, I'd be much more inclined to go long DIS... via Oct' calls, but for now, I ain't doing anything until the 2pm hour.
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time to cook.   back soon


10.07am.. Eyes on DIS

I'd like something in the low $102....  probably this afternoon.
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10.17am.. notable weakness: NFLX -1.9% ... back in the $96s... really struggling.

DIS is cooling,  $102.70s

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Equity futures are powerfully higher, sp +41pts, we're set to open around 1962. First key target is the psy' level of 2000, with best bull case of the 2050/70 zone in FOMC week.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

So... all the Friday upset is now a distant memory, and indeed as I thought at the time, it was just another tease by Mr Market to the bears.

Before next chance of a sig' down wave, we're headed up to at least sp'2000, if not the 2050/70 zone next week.

Its hard to call what the Fed might do  What is clear though, are the daily MACD cycles, which remain extremely low, and due to be reset to a large extent.. and that will take the better part of TWO weeks.

I certainly can't be short (whether light or heavy) until the tail end of next week.
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early movers

AAPL +2.7% in the $112.10s
DIS +1.3% in the $102.20s
NFLX +3.6% .. 102.40s
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Overnight China action: Weakness across the morning, then a magical (and consistent) climb into the close, settling +2.9% @ 3170. It looks like the PBOC (or their agents) were hitting the BUY button.
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*I am holding a micro AAPL-long position. The option month is Sept', and at the very least I should roll out to Oct'. So, I'll look for an early exit... and will consider buying back Oct'.. this afternoon, or tomorrow.

Have a good Tuesday.
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8.00am

meanwhile.. another posting from some maniac...

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sp' +35pts.. 1956.. a straight run to the 1970s looks due today/tomorrow.. makes little difference.

time to shop... back soon.
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8.44am.. a few of the ETF movers...

TVIX -10%,   VXX -5%

YANG (3x bearish China) -20.0%,   YINN +20.0%

SSO (2x sp'500) +3.7% in the $57.80s.

ERX (3x long energy) +3.9%... which considering oil (-0.6%) is rather good.
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9.00am Kooky print on the SPY.. 190.23... equiv' to sp'1900  Algo-bots gone wild?

.. back to sp +36pts.. . 1957.

AAPL +1.9% in the $111.30s.  Hmm
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9.33am.. EXITED AAPL-long from $111.70s.      
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9.40am..  VIX -10%... already in the 24s.    20 looks an easy target...maybe mid teens by Fed day (Sept 17th)