Monday, 2 December 2019

Pushing out the reacceleration

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -27pts (0.9%) at 3113. Nasdaq comp' -1.1%. Dow -1.0%. The Transports settled -1.1%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

The last month of the decade began with a couple of market related messages from the US President...


It is certainly the case that Trump would like a weaker USD. However, the Fed have nothing to do with that (directly), and its actually the job of the US Treasury.

He continued...


Make of the above... what you will.
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Equities opened a little higher, but the gains were shaky. With the ISM manu' printing a recessionary 48.1 vs 48.3 prior, that didn't help, and equities spiraled lower to 3110. The afternoon saw a bounce, but that was relatively weak, with the closing hour seeing renewed downside.

Volatility spiked, with the VIX printing 15.27, and settling +18.1% at 14.91.

In AH... Trump resumed...


Again, Trump sure doesn't like the broadly strong USD, and took a rather fierce swipe at the Fed and Powell. Who was it that appointed Jay 'ridiculous policies' Powell?
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Pushing out the reacceleration

In March of this year, the mainstream cheerleaders were relentlessly touting a 'second half recovery'. That has now been pushed out to a 'reacceleration in Q2 of 2020'.



Farley "Is a recession possible next year?"
Orlando "Err... no!".

That is a pretty bold call. Regardless, the point stands, the mainstream never did get their H2 recovery, and instead are now hoping for something in Q2 of 2020.
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Today's political mail...


... both pieces were from the Liberal Democrats. Once again, they are trying to make Johnson look bad, with an association to Trump. The mainstream are currently expecting a Johnson victory, but they are the same people who never saw the original BREXIT vote coming, or anything of significance in recent years.

Meanwhile... a rather disturbing story...
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/uk-ministers-talks-drugs-giant-20967881

It would seem Johnson/Conservatives have already been trying to arrange a provisional agreement between the Trump admin' and various US healthcare corporates. So... worse case, UK drug prices soar, perhaps ten fold. You can call it whatever you like, I call it morally contemptible.

*The UK election is Dec'12th, and yours truly has already voted.
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Winter sunshine

Full moon is Dec'12th
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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