Monday 2 December 2019

Pushing out the reacceleration

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -27pts (0.9%) at 3113. Nasdaq comp' -1.1%. Dow -1.0%. The Transports settled -1.1%.




The last month of the decade began with a couple of market related messages from the US President...

It is certainly the case that Trump would like a weaker USD. However, the Fed have nothing to do with that (directly), and its actually the job of the US Treasury.

He continued...

Make of the above... what you will.

Equities opened a little higher, but the gains were shaky. With the ISM manu' printing a recessionary 48.1 vs 48.3 prior, that didn't help, and equities spiraled lower to 3110. The afternoon saw a bounce, but that was relatively weak, with the closing hour seeing renewed downside.

Volatility spiked, with the VIX printing 15.27, and settling +18.1% at 14.91.

In AH... Trump resumed...

Again, Trump sure doesn't like the broadly strong USD, and took a rather fierce swipe at the Fed and Powell. Who was it that appointed Jay 'ridiculous policies' Powell?

Pushing out the reacceleration

In March of this year, the mainstream cheerleaders were relentlessly touting a 'second half recovery'. That has now been pushed out to a 'reacceleration in Q2 of 2020'.

Farley "Is a recession possible next year?"
Orlando "Err... no!".

That is a pretty bold call. Regardless, the point stands, the mainstream never did get their H2 recovery, and instead are now hoping for something in Q2 of 2020.

Today's political mail...

... both pieces were from the Liberal Democrats. Once again, they are trying to make Johnson look bad, with an association to Trump. The mainstream are currently expecting a Johnson victory, but they are the same people who never saw the original BREXIT vote coming, or anything of significance in recent years.

Meanwhile... a rather disturbing story...

It would seem Johnson/Conservatives have already been trying to arrange a provisional agreement between the Trump admin' and various US healthcare corporates. So... worse case, UK drug prices soar, perhaps ten fold. You can call it whatever you like, I call it morally contemptible.

*The UK election is Dec'12th, and yours truly has already voted.

Winter sunshine

Full moon is Dec'12th
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @

Goodnight from London
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