Saturday 23 December 2017

Submit your outlook for 2018

It was another bullish week for the US equity market, with the sp'500 net higher for a fifth week, +7pts (0.3%) at 2683, with a notable new historic high of 2694. Near term outlook offers some chop into year end. More broadly, even the mainstream now recognise sp'3K is on the menu for 2018.



Of the six indexes I regularly highlight, five broke new historic highs this week. Only the R2K missed out, but even that remains very close to recent highs.

Cyclically, we're on the high side, and the market does look vulnerable in the seasonally weak period of mid Jan-early Feb. At best, there seems a viable threat of a 5% washout, before quickly recovering, and pushing onward to challenge the 3K threshold by mid year.

Looking ahead

A light 4 day week is ahead...

M - CLOSED - Christmas day
T - Richmond fed
W - Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con', pending home sales
T - Intl' trade, weekly jobs, EIA Pet' & Nat' gas reports,
F - Chicago PMI

*As Friday is the last trading day of 2017, there will likely be some very significant tax-loss selling in select stocks (GE being a prime candidate).

**Keep in mind, the following Monday, Jan'1st, the US market will be CLOSED.

Looking back to look forward

At the start of the year I provided a year end target of sp'2683.

Original post: 


Its notable that this week closed precisely on target, and now its a case of exactly how the year settles. I'll be very pleased with anything +/- 26pts, which does seem probable.

My outlook for 2018?

I'm still trying to narrow down a broad range to a specific 'best guess' target, along with some broader issues (such as rate hikes, growth).

Now is YOUR opportunity to submit your outlook for 2018. 

I'm interested in two aspects....

Primary: what is your end 2018 target for the sp'500 ?

Secondary: ANY other issues you'd like to raise.. whether equity indexes, individual stocks, GDP, jobs, inflation, oil, gold/silver/copper, bonds. You can even highlight anything socio-political.

You can submit your target/outlook via Twitter ( ), Disqus (in this, or any future post), or email. If you want to change anything, let me know.

The deadline for submissions: Monday January 1st

I will likely post a detailed outlook for 2018, along with your submissions, no later than the weekend of Jan'6/7th.
*The next scheduled post will be Tuesday Dec'26th at 6pm EST.