Thursday 6 October 2016

WTIC pushing for $50

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +9pts @ 2159. The two leaders – Trans/R2K, both settled higher by 0.7%. VIX settled -4.7% @ 12.99. Near term outlook offers some Thursday weakness, with the threat of Friday ‘good jobs news is good news’.. with a weekly close above resistance in the 2180s.




A day of moderate gains, as the market seems content for moderate swings ahead of the Friday jobs data.

VIX is naturally subdued, usually unable to hold the low teens. If the market can break above resistance of the sp'2170s this Friday, then VIX will see the 11s.. perhaps even 10s. From there, the sp'2210/20s might equate to single digit VIX (not seen since Feb'2007), which would be truly bizarre, considering an election is near.

Best guess remains... market holds together... with renewed upside on 'good news jobs data'.

Things don't turn remotely bearish unless the recent low of 2119 is broken, which would also violate the rising trend that stretches back to the Feb' low.

WTIC oil, weekly

A net daily gain of $1.13 (2.4%) to $49.83.. with an intra high $49.97. A weekly close >$50 looks due, whether this week.. or later in the month. It should make little difference to those with eyes on the bigger picture.

Goodnight from London