Thursday 5 July 2018

Pre-tariff gains

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +23pts (0.9%) at 2736 . The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and +1.2% respectively. VIX settled -7.2% at 14.97. The s/t cyclical setup for Friday offers a cooling wave, but regardless, m/t outlook remains bullish to 2950/3047.




US equities opened moderately higher, but the gains were rather shaky. After some chop, the market clawed upward into mid afternoon, breaking a new high of 2735 with the FOMC minutes. After a few swings, the market resumed upward into the close.Volatility was a little mixed, seeing a high of 16.22, but with the VIX settling in the upper 14s.

China tariffs

A new set of tariffs will begin on Friday. The rate will be 'up to 25%', on $34B of US goods. For now, the numbers remain trivial. Yes, certain individual companies could be hit hard, but overall, its still a minor economic issue. It is arguably the case that China needs the US more, than the US needs China. It might perhaps explain the ongoing weakness in the Shanghai comp'....

Not a great July, breaking a new low for the year of 2722, with no real technical support until the Feb'2016 low of 2638.

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @

Goodnight from London
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