Closing Brief

US equities saw minor chop across much of the day, sp +1pt @ 1937. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and +0.4% respectively. There looks to be reasonable opportunity for new historic highs later this week, with a max' level of 1970/75.


sp'60min

Summary

A generally quiet day in the US markets.

The market is in mere trundle mode, awaiting the next FOMC announcement, although it'd seem we won't get any surprises there.

*I continue to hold long via, CHK, WFM, and an index block. I've little concern about holding for a few more days.
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a little more later, to wrap up the trading day... at 8pm EST.

3pm update - here come the Iranians

Whilst equities look set for moderate upward chop into the close, its time for yet another game... Iran vs Nigeria. This is sure to be an interesting one, and is another welcome distraction from the nonsense of the casino.


sp'60min

Summary

Lets see if the Iranians can do well.... I've a small hope they might meet the USA in a later round, which really would make for an 'interesting' face off.
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As I noted at the open, minor chop...but most indexes look set to close slightly positive.

It would seem we'll battle higher into the FOMC, and there remains a reducing chance that we'll see the 1920s until at least next week.
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2pm update - underlying upside

US equities continue to see a lot of minor chop, but the underlying upward pressure remains, and we have some moderately bullish daily index candles. The daily cycle is offering the mid 1960s, with 1970/75 viable (if briefly) on an FOMC spike high.


sp'daily5

Summary

... and Germany win 4-0...  the Merkel s visibly pleased.    I guess that is bullish DAX for Tuesday.
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Seriously though, price action remains much the same... and we look set for new highs. not least as suggested by the R2k.

I realise some will be seeking the low 1900s in another wave lower. later this week, but price action does not support it.

1pm update - minor chop continues

US indexes continue to see minor chop, although the price action remains the same broadly bullish style from late May. The chop could continue into the next FOMC, but regardless.. there should be renewed upside at some point to new historic highs.


sp'60min

Summary

I'd adjusted the hourly chart a little, I'd like to see a daily close in the 1940s before the immediate threat of 1905/00 is removed.

VIX remains pretty much maxed out though.. little reason why we'll see mid teens for some time.
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VIX update from Mr T.


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More importantly though, Germany vs Portugal is turning into something of a rout, and one of the Portuguese even got the boot!

Bearish referees.
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12pm update - EU powerhouse vs one of the PIIGS

US equities continue to see minor chop, although the losses barely rate as minor. However, far more important... time for another game.. Germany vs Portugal, which should prove to be a fine distraction from the QE fuelled casino.


sp'60min

Summary

So..opening loses...minor gains...back to loses.

Price action does NOT support any overly bearish outlook, certainly the big 1900 threshold looks a hugely strong floor now - with rising weekly 10MA support.
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I remain LONG, and have little concern about holding across much of this week. unless the style of price action changes.

time for kick off...

11am update - morning chop

Despite some minor morning chop, it remains notable that the sp'500 has already broken back into the 1940s.. less than 1% from breaking new historic highs - which seem likely this week. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2, whilst Oil is holding minor gains of 0.2%


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add... it remains a bit choppy, but the underlying upside is there to be seen.

Rest of the day is merely about whether we close in the 1940/45 zone...or broadly flat.
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VIX remains stuck at gap-resistance.. and looks set to melt lower into the next FOMC announcement of Wed' afternoon.


notable weakness: coal miners, with WLT lower almost -5%.   the reaper..awaits.

10am update - indexes breaking upward

US equities open a touch lower, but there is already a clear turn, and we look set for a daily close in the sp'1940s, which easily opens the door to new index highs within a few days. Metals are turning lower, with Gold -$2.


sp'60min

Summary

*R2K looks especially bullish, upside is 1190, which is a clear 2% higher, and that sort of level would break the recent high...negating the remaining bearish H/S scenario.
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So..we're already net green...and the QE fuel hasn't even yet been dumped on the market.

What would be especially bullish, a close in the 1950s.. but that would be quite a gain to start the week.
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I am holding LONG, ... am not interested in exiting at current levels.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 1932. Precious metals are a little higher, Gold +$5, whilst Oil is similarly higher, +0.3%. With sig' QE today, equity bulls should manage a net daily gain.


sp'60min

Summary

So..we're set to open lower, but the recent low of 1925 is still comfortably holding.

With the QE this morning, I'd be surprised if we break last weeks low, and indeed, I am seeking net daily gains by the close.

An interesting day...but more so.. week ahead!
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Weekend video update from sp500chart.com



The 1990s I'd agree... just about viable by mid July.
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Have a good week everyone!