VIX'daily3
Summary
*the fifth daily decline of the last six trading days.
--
Little to add.
VIX looks to set to see another wave lower after the FOMC announcement this Wed' afternoon.
--
more later... on the indexes
Monday, 26 January 2015
Volatility resumes lower
Whilst equities saw minor chop across the day, the VIX was in melt mode, settling lower by -6.8% @ 15.52. Near term outlook is for the sp'2090/2110 zone, which will likely equate to VIX 14/13s, if not even a little lower (briefly).
VIX'daily3
Summary
*the fifth daily decline of the last six trading days.
--
Little to add.
VIX looks to set to see another wave lower after the FOMC announcement this Wed' afternoon.
--
more later... on the indexes
VIX'daily3
Summary
*the fifth daily decline of the last six trading days.
--
Little to add.
VIX looks to set to see another wave lower after the FOMC announcement this Wed' afternoon.
--
more later... on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equities saw a day of minor chop, sp +5pts @ 2057 (intra low 2040). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.6% and 1.0% respectively. Outlook remains broadly bullish, into the sp'2100s.
sp'60min
Summary
*awaiting earnings: MSFT, TXN, UTX
--
Little to add, on what was essentially a holding pattern day... ahead of what will likely be a quiet snow-day Tuesday.
--
Considering the Greek election result..the capital markets traded very comfortably today. There is almost nothing for the bears to look forward to this week.
The sp'2090/2110 zone looks a valid target.. although more likely next week.
-
more later... on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
*awaiting earnings: MSFT, TXN, UTX
--
Little to add, on what was essentially a holding pattern day... ahead of what will likely be a quiet snow-day Tuesday.
--
Considering the Greek election result..the capital markets traded very comfortably today. There is almost nothing for the bears to look forward to this week.
The sp'2090/2110 zone looks a valid target.. although more likely next week.
-
more later... on the VIX
3pm update - chop into the close
US equities are holding slight gains, with a daily close now likely within the sp'2050s. VIX is in melt mode, -4% in the 16.25/15.75 zone. Metals remain weak, Gold -$11, with Silver -1.9%. Oil has failed to hold moderate gains, now -0.4%
sp'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
*there is chatter that the US markets will be impacted by heavy overnight snowfall. Sure. trading will likely be lighter.. but surely the market will be open across tomorrow?
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..barring any sporadic news...... back at the close.
sp'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
*there is chatter that the US markets will be impacted by heavy overnight snowfall. Sure. trading will likely be lighter.. but surely the market will be open across tomorrow?
--
..barring any sporadic news...... back at the close.
2pm update - normal service continues
US equities are seeing increasing strength, with a daily close in the sp'2060s now very viable. A break into the 2070s looks viable if Mr Market is placated by the FOMC this Wed' afternoon - which seems likely. Metals remain weak, Gold -$14
sp'60min
Summary
*there remains a real stinky mood out there today... I can't be the only one noticing it. Big 'event' coming.. hmm?
--
Little to add.
What is notable... all those touting doom last night.. they are all on radio silent mode right now. No doubt, they'll reappear in the low sp'2100s... the wretches.. or should that be roaches?
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Notable weakness: STX -8% in the $58s
... but still... little wrong with Seagate, one of my favourite techs for the mid term.
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*Ohh yeah... Russia debt got downgraded to 'junk' by Sp'. Considering the state of their equity market.. and energy prices... not surprising.
sp'60min
Summary
*there remains a real stinky mood out there today... I can't be the only one noticing it. Big 'event' coming.. hmm?
--
Little to add.
What is notable... all those touting doom last night.. they are all on radio silent mode right now. No doubt, they'll reappear in the low sp'2100s... the wretches.. or should that be roaches?
-
Notable weakness: STX -8% in the $58s
... but still... little wrong with Seagate, one of my favourite techs for the mid term.
-
*Ohh yeah... Russia debt got downgraded to 'junk' by Sp'. Considering the state of their equity market.. and energy prices... not surprising.
12pm update - somewhat tedious chop
US equities are back to chop mode, although this remains a strong performance considering the sporadic headlines from Greece. Metals remain in cooling mode, Gold -$14, with Silver -1.9%. With equities in chop mode, the VIX is naturally in melt mode, -2% in the mid 16s.
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*I'll have more to say on the metals later, but suffice to say.. a key multi-year floor does not look in yet.
--
Rest of the day... choppy.. but with underlying upside.. ahead of the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting.
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VIX update from Mr T
--
time for tea... back at 2pm
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*I'll have more to say on the metals later, but suffice to say.. a key multi-year floor does not look in yet.
--
Rest of the day... choppy.. but with underlying upside.. ahead of the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting.
-
VIX update from Mr T
--
time for tea... back at 2pm
11am update - underlying strength
Mr Market has little concern about Greece, with all indexes in the process of turning positive. Metals remain notably weak, Gold -$14.. with a viable new multi-week down cycle now underway. Oil is holding minor gains of 0.6%
sp'daily5
R2K, daily
Summary
*it is notable that the daily upper bol' on the sp' continues to tick lower.. .now around 2095. Certainly, there will be resistance in the 2090/2100 zone.
--
So... all those bears getting overly excited at the futures last night are already disappointed, and its not even 11am.
Any daily close in the sp'2060s would be a bonus, and open up 2090s by Thur/Friday... when we have the big GDP data.
--
*I remain long via the R2K, seeking an exit in the 1215/20 zone... certainly seems viable later this week.
sp'daily5
R2K, daily
Summary
*it is notable that the daily upper bol' on the sp' continues to tick lower.. .now around 2095. Certainly, there will be resistance in the 2090/2100 zone.
--
So... all those bears getting overly excited at the futures last night are already disappointed, and its not even 11am.
Any daily close in the sp'2060s would be a bonus, and open up 2090s by Thur/Friday... when we have the big GDP data.
--
*I remain long via the R2K, seeking an exit in the 1215/20 zone... certainly seems viable later this week.
10am update - weak, but nothing significant
The US equity market has started the week on a negative note, but it is certainly nothing of significance. Metals are on the slide, Gold -$11. Oil is higher by a moderate 0.5%
sp'60min
Summary
So.. we're lower, with a clear break of trend on the hourly cycle.
All things considered though - not least the Greek election, price action is nothing for the equity bulls to get worried about.
A daily close >2030 is a 'must' though.
--
notable weakness, STX...
Lower by almost a full -10%, but still... I like the company across the longer term. Great drives... never had one fail on me yet!
--
*Gold bugs should be very concerned of a new multi-week down cycle that might be underway. There is already plenty of chatter about a post FOMC smack down... and that would not surprise me. As ever... implications for the miners.
sp'60min
Summary
So.. we're lower, with a clear break of trend on the hourly cycle.
All things considered though - not least the Greek election, price action is nothing for the equity bulls to get worried about.
A daily close >2030 is a 'must' though.
--
notable weakness, STX...
Lower by almost a full -10%, but still... I like the company across the longer term. Great drives... never had one fail on me yet!
--
*Gold bugs should be very concerned of a new multi-week down cycle that might be underway. There is already plenty of chatter about a post FOMC smack down... and that would not surprise me. As ever... implications for the miners.
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. Futures have largely recovered from overnight lows, sp -5pts, we're set to open at 2046. Metals are starting the week on a down note... Gold -$9. Oil is making another attempt to bounce, +1.3%.
sp'daily5
Summary
So.. the market has largely recovered from rather sharp overnight declines, sp' was lower by around 1% for a fair part of the night.
It will be kinda important for the equity bulls to at least settle the day flat. Anything in the 2060s would be a bonus - considering overnight conditions.
As for Greece... as Oscar might say... 'who cares'. All the talk of a GREXIT is very premature we could easily be a few years away from that. To me, the eventual implication is that Spain and Portugal will likely follow. Both are basketcase economies... and shouldn't be holding to the Euro anymore.
In any case... we have an interesting week ahead... FOMC on Wed', and GDP on Friday, along with a great many earnings of course.
--
Update from Oscar
--
Hunter wth Fitts.. a surprisingly balanced discussion on the year ahead
--
Have a good week!
sp'daily5
Summary
So.. the market has largely recovered from rather sharp overnight declines, sp' was lower by around 1% for a fair part of the night.
It will be kinda important for the equity bulls to at least settle the day flat. Anything in the 2060s would be a bonus - considering overnight conditions.
As for Greece... as Oscar might say... 'who cares'. All the talk of a GREXIT is very premature we could easily be a few years away from that. To me, the eventual implication is that Spain and Portugal will likely follow. Both are basketcase economies... and shouldn't be holding to the Euro anymore.
In any case... we have an interesting week ahead... FOMC on Wed', and GDP on Friday, along with a great many earnings of course.
--
Update from Oscar
--
Hunter wth Fitts.. a surprisingly balanced discussion on the year ahead
--
Have a good week!
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