Thursday 12 July 2018

Thursday gains

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +24pts (0.9%) at 2798. Nasdaq comp' +1.4% at 7823. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled +0.4%. VIX settled -7.7% at 12.58. Near term outlook still offers a cooling wave to around sp'2760.



US equities opened moderately higher, although the gains were a little shaky. However, the buyers did appear - especially within tech, and the market battled upward into the close. The VIX was naturally very subdued, melting lower to the mid 12s. S/t outlook offers a retrace/cooling wave to the sp'2760s.

Bonus chart: China, monthly

The Shanghai comp' is well off the lows, currently -0.3% at 2837. A net July gain would be really helpful to those seeking strength in other world markets (including the US). For now though, the m/t trend is still pretty bearish, as we're well under the key 10MA. 

Open day Friday

Friday July 13th is 'my day', and I will unlock the door at

All my intraday posts will be available to non-subscribers, starting with the pre-market brief at 8.30am EDT.

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @

Goodnight from London
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11am update - back to the other place

Merely a note for subscribers...

My server is backup...
I'm switching back to

non-subscribers, I do intend to have a full open day for Friday July 13th, and it will be at

back at the close.

10am update - opening shaky gains

US equity indexes open moderately higher, as trade/tariff concerns are once again fading from Mr Market's near term concerns.The gains are a little shaky though, and having not hit sp'2768, that is still valid before the weekend.




Opening gains, but frankly, I don't much trust them, and we early signs of a reversal. We have a long day ahead... as Trump has landed just a few miles due south of yours truly.

notable stock: MU

Underlying strength in Micron. Clearly, if the main market swings lower later today, Micron will at least be pinned back somewhat. Once declining trend/resistance is cleared - currently around $57.70s, its arguably an open road to 70/75 zone by late summer. I still think a sporadic takeover is a high threat, although it won't come cheap. Any bidder is going to need to spend close to $100bn.

notable implosion, AVGO

Mr Market will usually knock the bidder for a stock lower, the current reaction is wildly stupid. I don't follow the sought company of CA.

notable strength, TWTR

There are buyers on every little cooling wave. Earnings are due July 27th, and it'd not be surprising to see this around psy'50 at that time. Secondary target 53s, which isn't bold, considering the m/t trend.

notable financial: BAC

Bank of America opens moderately higher, but it looks vulnerable with the main market. Yours truly is looking to pick up BAC ahead of Monday earnings, but I don't like the current s/t setup. There seems no hurry.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +13pts, we're set to open at 2787. USD is +0.2% in the DXY 94.70s. The precious metals are a seeing a weak bounce, Gold +$1, with Silver +0.3%. WTIC is +0.9% in the $70s.



*Subscriber server @, for no known reason, is currently offline. I'll likely just post here for the rest of today. I was actually looking to have Friday 13th as an 'open day'. so I guess I'll just make it today instead. 

Yesterday saw rather broad weakness, but we never hit even the basic technical necessity of the upper gap of sp'2768/59. We're clearly set to open moderately higher, and the gains could be expected to hold into at least 11am.

Frankly, having not even hit 2768, I am NOT inclined to chase higher. An intraday swing from the 2780s to 2760s isn't that difficult, but it will arguably need some kind of news to cross the wires into this afternoon.

*awaiting CPI data, which is especially important to those at Print Central.

Early movers

AAPL +0.6%, main market strength (mms)
ABBV +0.5%, bouncing after a rough Wed'
AMD +1.2%, mms

AVGO -9% around $222, acquiring 'CA Technologies' (CA) for $18.9B. So... they couldn't get QCOM, and instead make a play for CA.

BABA +1.4%, rebounding, with background 'softbank' chatter
BAC +0.7%, mms
CA +18.0% at $44.00, as AVGO bid.
CAT +1.2%, bouncing as the trade/tariff news fades
DB +0.2%, weak bounce

Earnings from Delta were fine. Rev' was $11.775bn vs 11.722 exp'. The underlying problem remains sustainably high WTIC/fuel prices. That issue isn't going away anytime soon.
FCX +3.0%, with copper +2cents to $2.76
GE +1.1%, contract to build Polish power plant/s
INTC +0.6%, mms
JPM +0.8%, earnings on Friday
LB -5.5%, reporting June sales +6%, but market is still not happy.
MRO +1.1%, with oil
MU +1.1%, underlying strength

NFLX -0.4%, as UBS downgrade from buy to neutral. However, Canaccord Genuity upgrade from 350 to 500.

NVDA +1.0%, underlying strength
RIG +0.6%, with oil
SQ +0.9%, underlying m/t super strong
TEVA +0.6%, mms
TSLA +1.3%, still broadly choppy
TVIX -3% with VIX -4% in the low 13s
TWTR +2.0%, underlying strength
UAL +1.1%, helped by DAL earnings
V +0.8%, having broken a new historic high yesterday, a wildly strong stock.
X +0.6%, mms

Overnight markets

After a rough Wednesday, the mood has swung rather positive...

Japan: +1.2% at 22187
China: +2.2% at 2837
Germany: currently +0.6% at 12493
UK: currently +0.9% at 7659

Have a good Thursday