Tuesday 10 March 2020

The wild swings continue

US equity indexes closed powerfully higher, sp +135pts (4.9%) at 2881. Nasdaq comp' +4.9%. Dow +4.9%. The Transports settled +5.4%.




US equities opened very significantly higher, but the gains were shaky from the start.

Trump appeared in mid morning...

... and naturally took another swipe at Print Central. Low/neg' rates are problematic, especially for the financials. It seems clear the Fed will follow the BoJ and the ECB, and undermine the very system they are trying to prop up.

The late morning saw equities turn fractionally lower.

CNBC regular Niles is boldly calling for a recession...

A 30% drop from 3393 would equate to 2376, whilst a 50% drop would be 1697.The latter would interestingly be close to a back test of the old double top of 2000/2007 of the 1500s. That would be.... ideal.

The afternoon saw a powerful swing back upward, from what is a s/t double floor of 2734. The s/t outlook leans bullish, if only for a day or two. Clearly, the market will be vulnerable to any further Corona related headlines.

Volatility remained very elevated, with the VIX settling -13.1% at 47.30.


In the land of yours truly, case numbers total 373, with 6 deaths. Right now, the doubling period is 4-5 days. So, the UK could be expected to be >1000 by around next Wednesday's FOMC. Yours truly is close to deciding to shop only at 2am... when most of the unwashed sheep are fast asleep.

The following is highly recommended...

"We conservatively estimate that this could require 48 million hospitalizations, 96 million cases actually, occurring over 480 thousand deaths, that can occur over the next three to seven months" - Osterholm.

Reflect on that, this evening. 

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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