Saturday 22 September 2018

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +2.2% (Dow), +1.4% (NYSE comp'), +0.8% (sp'500), -0.3% (Nasdaq comp', Trans), to -0.5% (R2K). Near term outlook offers a little weakness, but broadly higher into year end.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes


The sp' climbed for the 10th week of 12, settling +24pts (0.8%) at 2929, with a new historic high of 2940. A September settlement in the 2900s looks probable. The giant 3K threshold will be technically viable from mid October onward.

The key Fibonacci of 3047 won't be easy to clear, but with the Dow breaking above its direct equivalent of 26702, the sp' could be expected to follow. Any price action >3047 - if by mid November, would offer a year end ramp into the 3200s. The original year end target of 3245 is just about within range.

Nasdaq comp'

The Nasdaq comp' settled -0.3% at 7986. Underlying macd (blue bar histogram) threatens a bearish cross next week. First big support would be the 7600s, but considering the rest of the market, its difficult to see that.


The mighty Dow climbed for the 10th week of 12, settling higher by a very significant 588pts (2.2%) to 26743. The new historic high of 26769 was notably above the key Fibonacci of 26702, and it bodes well for the broader market into year end. The next fib' is 34430, which is 7687pts (28.7%) to the upside. I'll just add that the equivalent for the sp'500 is 3956.

NYSE comp'

The master index climbed for the 10th week of 12, settling +1.4% at 13236. New historic highs (>13637) are viable in October. The 14000s look on the menu before year end.


The R2K was the laggard this week, settling net lower by -0.5% to 1712. Underlying macd has turned negative for the first time since early August. The 1800s are realistic in Nov/Dec.


The 'old leader' - Transports, saw a net decline of -0.3% to 11532. This minor decline was ironically the biggest since late June. Higher WTIC/gasoline prices are clearly a downward pressure.


Three indexes were net higher, with three net lower for the week.

The Dow and sp'500 broke new historic highs.

The YTD market leaders of Nasdaq and R2K were the laggards this week.

YTD performance:

The Nasdaq continues to lead the way, currently +15.7%, with the R2K +11.5%, and the sp +9.6%. The Transports is +8.7%, the Dow is +8.2%, with the nyse comp' +3.3%.

Looking ahead

Key earnings; KBH, NKE (Tues'), CCL (Thurs')

The week will be focused on the Fed, as we're due the third rate hike of the year. How the bond market reacts will be especially important. 

M -
T - Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con', Richmond Fed.
W - New home sales, EIA Pet' report.

FOMC: There will be an announcement at 2pm, that will detail a rate hike of 25bps to a new target range of 2.00-2.25%. Powell will host a press conf' at 2.30pm, and that will likely last an hour.

T - Weekly jobs, Durable goods orders, GDP (Q2, third estimate), intl' trade, pending home sales
F - Pers' income/outlays, Chicago PMI, consumer sent'.

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Have a good weekend

*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.