With US equities settling moderately lower, the VIX battled higher for a second consecutive day, settling +6.1% @ 13.81. Near term outlook is mixed, with threat of minor cooling into equity opex this Friday. However, VIX looks set for the upper teens by end month.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
Key resistance remains the mid 14s. Until we see a daily close in the VIX 15s, ... there is no clarity for the equity bears.
*I remain long-VIX, seeking another exit in the 16/17s... but that doesn't look likely until next week.
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US equities closed moderately weak, sp -5pts @ 2096 (intra high 2103). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.2% and -0.8% respectively. Near term outlook is mixed, with viable upside to the sp'2110/20s.. before significant downside after the next opex.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour, a fair bit of moderate chop... but clearly.. nothing for the equity bears to get excited about.
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I widened the rising trend on the hourly cycle.. to enclose the closing candle. On balance, we're likely to claw at least somewhat higher across the next day or two.
To be clear.. I do NOT expect the sp'500 (never mind some of the weaker indexes) to break new historic highs in the near/mid term.
The sp'500 has held rising support @ 2094... and looks set to claw upward into the close. Rising trend is highly suggestive that by late Thursday the market will have been trading at least above 2115. VIX is holding minor gains of 6% in the 13.80s, having been unable to clear the 14 threshold.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.
We have a clear break above resistance yesterday.. and today... we've held above it.
Any daily close <2097.... is a clear break of trend.
<2094... a fail of the 50dma... and new intraday low...
so... lets see how another hour in this casino plays out.
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notable weakness: DIS -1.9% in the $106s.. daily chart looks ugly to the big $100 threshold.. by end month.
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3.06pm... Things remain very marginal.... but clearly.. no sig' downside today... its mostly weak chop.
VIX +7.0% in the 13.90s... .a daily close in the low 14 would be interesting, but still.. that is below key resistance (14.50s)
US equities remain a little lower.. sitting on what is rising trend/support at sp'2094... and which will be 2095/96 at the close. VIX is a little twitchy... +7% in the 13.90s. The mid 14s remain clear resistance... 15s to be definitive. Despite the USD +0.2%.. Oil has build gains of 1.3%.. but still in the lowly $43s.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*without question... equity bears need to see the sp'2070s with VIX 15s before they stop waving the white flag.
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So.. on the edge... no doubt the algo-bots will be well aware of the levels/trends. So.. now its a case of whether we break back to around 2080... or rebound.. and claw into the 2110/20s.
Difficult to call... not least as yesterday was the same setup... and resulted in another up wave.
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*I remain long-VIX (obviously underwater)... am considering picking up a secondary market short across the next 1-4 trading days.
Broadly.. things still look 'reasonable' for some trouble in Sept/Oct.
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2.19pm... market holding support.. battling for another daily close in the low sp'2100s.
VIX looks vulnerable... not least as the Wed' open is VIX opex... and market will often whack the VIX lower into that.
At today's close there will be strong rising support at sp'2096/95. Even then, equity bears will need the 2070s - with VIX 15s, to offer clarity that the market won't resume clawing higher into the opex/weekly close. Metals are weak, Gold -$2, with Silver -3.1%
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
From a pure cyclical perspective we're set to see the hourly equity cycle turn negative in this hour... but where is the downside power going to come from?
Despite a touch of renewed weakness, US equities are still holding above rising support... and well above the Monday morning low of sp'2079. Until a daily close in the 2070s - with VIX 15s, equity bears can't get confident. Metals remain choppy, Gold -$1.. whilst Oil +0.7%.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Hourly MACD cycle is primed to turn negative within the next hour or two. In theory.. that would suggest much lower levels by the close.
Yet. .we saw the same setup yesterday morning, and that didn't work out so well for those in bear land.
US equities have naturally already rebounded to broadly flat. Despite being net higher for the second consecutive day, VIX remains broadly subdued in the low 13s. USD is +0.1% in the DXY 96.90s. Metals are choppy, Gold -$1, with Oil +0.6%
sp'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
* a notable second black-fail candle on the VIX... again.. its indicative that the bears can open the market lower.. but they have no sustained downside power.
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Little to add.. on what was is probably going to remain a day of chop.
Tomorrow does offer more dynamic action though.. with CPI and the FOMC minutes.
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notable weakness: DIS -1.7% in the $107s... headed for $100... (as is AAPL.. eventually).
*I'm intending to pick up an AAPL-short position within the next few days...
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US equities start the day with some minor mixed chop. Rising support is currently sp'2090 (2097 at the close).. and considering the lack of downside power, that should comfortably hold today. VIX remains broadly subdued, indicative of a market that has zero concern about anything... least of all... China.
sp'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Frankly, until we're back in the sp'2070s and VIX 15s.. I can't take any down move seriously.
Yesterday saw a clear break above resistance, and as its opex week, we're more than likely to just claw our way upward... regardless of China, Brazil... or just about anything else.
notable weakness: DIS -0.8% in the $108s.
miners, GDX -3.1%.. with Gold -$7.... as USD is making a play for the DXY 97s.
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back at 11am
Good morning. Equity futures are a little lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 2098. With the break above resistance, the bears face a major problem in holding the market under the sp'2100 threshold this morning. Renewed upside (if moderate) looks due for the rest of the week.
sp'60min
Summary
Hourly MACD (blue bar histogram) is offering a bearish cross this morning, with increasing downside across the day.
However, that was also the case yesterday morning... and we saw how that turned out.
Considering it is opex week, we'll probably hold rising support.. which at the close will be around 2097.
I won't be able to take anything seriously until we see a daily close in the sp'2070s.. with VIX 15s.
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notable early movers..
BABA -1.6%
FCX -1.4%
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Update from Mr C.
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Overnight China action: the Shanghai comp' opened fractionally higher at 4006, but then saw increasing weakness across the day, settling -6.1% @ 3748. Nothing has changed.. the broader outlook remains for another major wave lower.. to the 3200/3000 zone.
US equities closed moderately higher, sp +10pts @ 2102. The two leaders -
Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 1.1% respectively. The VIX settled +1.6% @ 13.03 (intra high 14.52). With the break
above declining resistance, near term outlook is moderately bullish
into this Friday's OPEX.
sp'daily5
sp'weekly1b
VIX'daily3
Summary
A truly lousy start to the week for the equity bears. Opening moderate weakness to sp'2079... only to see a sharp swing back upward... to break and close above resistance. Frankly, equity bears can write off the rest of the week.
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As for the VIX... today was yet another instance where we saw an opening hourly black-fail candle.. indicative of bearish exhaustion. The closing daily candle was itself a black-fail candle.. having been unable to break above resistance in the 14.50s.
It would seem probable that the VIX will remain subdued for the rest of the week. The big 20 threshold looks out of range until September.
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*I remain long-VIX. Had my entry been in the 13/12s last week, I'd have bailed at this morning's open. As it is.. I am not willing to exit for a minor loss (the same was true last Monday).. and will simply wait it out.. into end month... which now seems likely.
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