Lets take our monthly look at ten of the world equity markets
Greece
An important recovery gain of 5.2% for the Greek Athex. 1400 remains key resistance, and that is a very considerable 45% higher. A broader 'hyper' target of 2500 seems viable by early 2016.
Brazil
The Bovespa only managed a fractional gain for November. This is not surprising though, with Brazil especially vulnerable to the ongoing weakness in many commodities.
France
The French market gained 3.7% in November. First target is the June high of 4598. A break into the 4600s should offer easy upside to the 5000/5250 zone by mid 2015.
Germany
The economic powerhouse of the EU - Germany, managed an exceptionally strong gain of 7%. The DAX looks set to re-take the 10000s in December. There is viable upside to 13k by end 2015... and that only assumes continuation of the trend.
UK
An important monthly gain of 2.7% for the UK market, but remaining stuck under the giant threshold of 7000. On a break >7k, those equity bulls seeking major upside across 2015 should be seeking 8500/9k.
Spain
The ugliest of the EU PIIGS - Spain, managed a fair gain of 2.8%, but remains stuck under the key 12k threshold. A break above will open up huge upside to the Nov'2007 high of 16040... roughly 50% higher.
USA
A net monthly gain of 2.5% for the Dow, and on any basis, we're breaking 'up and away'. Many have been touting some kind of narrowing wedge, but really.. that bearish scenario is surely to be dismissed. The November gains are more than enough to clarify that the Dow - along with other US indexes, are set for much higher levels.
There is viable near term upside to the Dow 18000/200 zone. The giant 20k threshold looks out of range until the late spring.
A break back below 17k looks extremely unlikely, and unless that level is taken out... I'll continue to hold to a 'no index shorts/VIX longs' trading policy.
Japan
A powerful net monthly gain of 6.4% for the 'BoJ fuelled' Nikkei. The giant 20k threshold looks viable by next spring (along with Dow 20k). It will be interesting to see how the mainstream react when 20k is reached. How long until people start talking about a return to the highs from Dec 1989 (38957) ?
There can be ZERO doubt that the BoJ will keep on buying stocks, bonds, and just about everything else. Further, the BoJ will surely increase the rate of buying next year. After all, what else would they do? The BoJ are on a buying spree.. via 'new money' before the Yen (along with the bond market) implodes.
Russia
With Oil/gas prices under severe downward pressure, the Russian equity market continues to slide. The net monthly decline of -10.2% offers no sign of a floor in the near term. With the break under the 1000 threshold, next key support are the low 800s... another 20% lower.
Perhaps President Putin needs to start printing via the BoR? That will solve ALL the problems.. yes?
China
An extremely powerful month for the Shanghai Comp', with a net monthly gain of 10.8% @ 2682 - the highest level since Aug'2011. There is very natural upside to 3500.. which is another 800pts (26%) higher.
Summary
Without question, the broader world equity market has seen some very important follow through to the upside. The spike-floor monthly candles have been confirmed, and we have a solid month of gains.
The only anomaly is Russia... but then, that is almost entirely due to the ongoing collapse in Oil prices.
Taken as a collective... there looks to be a good 30-50% upside for most world markets across 2015. The only thing that could derail such hyper gains would be a major geo-political event. Considering the many 'scares' of the past few years - none of which turned serious, there is little reason to believe next year will be any different.
Looking ahead
A fair number of bits and pieces in the coming week...
Mon - ISM/PMI manu' sector
Tue - Construction
Wed - ADP jobs, Productivity/costs, ISM/PMI service sector, Fed beige book
Thur - weekly jobless claims
Fri - monthly jobs data, intl' trade, factory orders, consumer credit.
*there is a light sprinkling of Fed officials across the week... as ever, Mr Market will be listening, not least for any talk on interest rates.
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back on Monday :)
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Video update from... some guy with a weird accent
ps. posting this first audio update was only marginally less disturbing than going long the market
