Volatility struggling to hold the low teens

With some mild equity price swings across the day, the VIX was generally weak, settling -7.1% @ 14.02 (morning low 13.96). Near term outlook is uncertain, and equity bears will need a daily VIX close in the 16s to offer any hope of a break <sp'1834.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*naturally, in the closing minutes, the VIX was knocked that extra bit lower.
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There is little to add. VIX remains low, and until we're back in the 16s, equity bears have little to get excited about. Even then, VIX 20s look difficult, even if the market slips to 1800/1790 - which now looks increasingly unlikely.

The one notable aspect from the daily chart, the current VIX floor of the 14/13s..is a touch higher than the 12/11s we saw at the start of the year.
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more later..on the indexes

Closing brief

US indexes saw some moderate swings across the day, with the sp'500 settling +8pts @ 1865. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.5% and u/c respectively. Near term outlook is uncertain, and market remains trapped within a tight 1883-34 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

A closing hour of very minor chop, and after the third consecutive reversal...the bulls did pretty well to get a close in the 1860s.
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Equity bears need to keep in mind that we're barely 1% from the historic highs, with two sig QE-pomo for Wed/Thursday, I'm now very concerned that we'll break to the upside.
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*I remain short, but with 'line in the sand' short-stops around sp'1884/85. If we go above there, a monthly close in the 1900s is viable, as hideous as that might sound.
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more later..on the VIX

3pm update - weakness into the close?

It has been a pretty tiresome Tuesday, not least for the equity bears, who have been teased with the sp'1850s, only to see an afternoon bounce. VIX remains weak, but the hourly cycle is offering a turn, and a daily close in the 15s would offer some small hope for Wednesday.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Barring a close <1860 - and that sure won't be easy, along with VIX 15s, it was an overly annoying day.
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Its time for the equity bears to push....its time for the closing hour!
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3.09pm.. hourly VIX MACD cycle ticking up...will go positive cycle tomorrow morning - whilst the next tranche of 'Yellen bux' are thrown at the market.

I'm starting to think the rest of this week is going to be just another 4-6 swings..driving everyone crazy.

Regardless...lets see what the equity bears can manage on this next VIX up cycle.


3.26pm.. Urghh..even the VIX 15s look..difficult.     Truly........tedious.....Tuesday.


3.35pm.. The smaller cycles are in favour of the bears into the close/early tomorrow, but really....this is most annoying day in weeks...maybe the year.

VIX 14.40...right now I'd settle for 14.70s.


3.49pm.. on the hourly equity chart..3 spike-top candles...I suppose thats something for the bears, but really...a daily close..a mere 0.9% from historic highs. Too close for comfort.

back at the close.

2pm update - tiresome minor swings

The bearish reversal is itself failing. A daily close in the sp'1870s will bring the bulls within easy range of new highs. VIX is close to taking out the opening low. For the equity bears, this is turning out to be a truly frustrating day.


vix'60min

Summary

It remains a real mess of a day. Minor swings..and until we're either >1883, or <1830...its going to remain...damn annoying.
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I'm getting real tired of this, back later...


2.38pm... VIX trying to push higher..a close in the 15s would make up for the all annoyance today.

1pm update - the reversal holds

So far, the third consecutive daily reversal is holding, although VIX remains slightly lower. Equity bears just need a net daily decline, with VIX 15s, to offer much lower levels into end month/early April. For now..it remains the case that few want to buy the sp'1870s.


vix'daily3

Summary

*VIX cooling down a little, but still.. a reversal.
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How we close..that is what is important.

There is a lot of talk about 'turn around Tuesday', and if we do get a red close, it'd give some of the more confident bull maniacs something to think about this evening.

Notable strength: STX +3%, UGAZ +6%
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1.30pm... another mini surge..back to sp'1867...and a daily close in the 1870s would nail the bears..with 2 QEs due.

Gods damn it, this is starting to get real annoying.

12pm update - the 1840s look viable

For the third consecutive trading day, the morning gains have largely evaporated, and the market is back on the slide. VIX is still slightly negative, but the 15s look likely, if not the 16s. Any daily close in the 1840s will keep open the door to much lower levels...the key threshold remains 1830.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

*..eyes..on the VIX, where we currently have a daily reversal (hollow red) candle, although I sure don't expect 20s in the immediate term, but 16-18s are certainly viable on a spike.
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VIX update from Mr P.



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stay tuned.

11am update - another reversal?

US equities are holding moderate gains, but somewhat struggling. VIX is offering a morning reversal, and if the bulls lose the sp'1860s today...it'll be another important failed rally. Metals are building minor gains, Gold +$5. VIX remains lower, but off the lows.


vix'60min

Summary

*I remain focused on the VIX...seeking a daily close in the 16s..which should clarify things..at least a little.
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Right now, little else to add.

Lets see if the bears can kick the market lower..back into the 1860s. A red close would be especially bearish, but as noted earlier.....there is sig' QE Wed/Thursday.

This is turning out to be a messy week.
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11.37am.. the reversal continues... VIX set to turn green within an hour.

Best case for the bears right now... sp'1840...with VIX 16s.

10am update - VIX opening reversal

US indexes open higher, with the sp' once again breaking into the 1870s. The VIX gaps lower by a rather strong -6%, but is offering an opening reversal. Equity bulls need to keep on pushing here, or they are highly vulnerable to a third consecutive daily reversal.


VIX'60min

Summary

Equity bears need two things...whether today..or tomorrow....

A daily close in the 1840s...or lower...
A daily VIX close in the 16s..or higher.

Right now, those seem bold targets, but, again the question remains..who wants to go long in the 1870/80s?
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*my concern remains that there is sig' QE-pomo both tomorrow..and Thursday. If we are in the 1870/80s early tomorrow, there will be extreme risk of new highs..and then of course, we would close the month in the sp'1900s..much to the delight of the cheerleaders on clown finance TV.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +6pts, we're set to open at 1863. Metals are a touch higher, Gold +$2. Equity bulls need to break over the Monday high of 1873. First key target zone for the bears remains 1845/35.


sp'daily5

Summary

*first econ-data of the day, case-shiller HPI, due at 9am.
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So..we're set to open a little higher, but i'd refer any equity bull who is getting overly excited to the past two trading days..both saw significant reversals.

With no sig' QE until early Wednesday, the bears really need to make good use of today.


9.04am.. sp +8pts, that takes us to 1865.

Equity bears really need to hold <1870....or the talk will start to shift of new highs again.
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9.42am.. VIX attempting an opening reversal, but really, -6% ? 

Weekly charts turning back

With last weeks close >sp'1858, the weekly charts settled back to outright bullish. Yet, after just one trading day, the weekly charts are back to flashing a provisional warning of trouble. The critical level for the equity bears to break and close under, is the weekly 10MA, currently @ 1834.


sp'weekly7

Summary

*back to a blue candle..which I will continue to refer to as a 'provisional warning of trouble'.
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So..a somewhat bearish start to the week, not least for the R2K, Nasdaq, and all of those crazy momo stocks.


Where next though?

Market is currently stuck in the 1880/1830 range. Considering the weekly MACD (green bar histogram), we are still seeing underlying weakness, and with the new blue candle...bears again have an opportunity to break this market lower.


The most bearish outlook remains...

sp'weekly7b

Clearly, we need not only a break of 1830, but the 61% fib level in the 1790s needs to also be undercut. A daily close in the 1765/55 zone would be just enough to offer a grand H/S scenario. As ever, I will be looking for a hit of the lower weekly bollinger band, something we've not seen since Nov'2012.


Looking ahead

Tuesday has a few pieces of housing data, consumer confidence, and the Richmond Fed manu' index. That should be enough to give the market an excuse to move in the morning.

*next sig' QE-pomo is not until Wednesday
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I remain heavy short, with a core block of SDS, and a secondary small block of SPY puts - the latter of which I will seek to drop on any Tue/Wed' gap lower.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities started the week with some weakness, sp -9pts, but with much stronger declines for the Nasdaq Comp', -1.2% @ 4226. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.1% and -1.3% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish, to the sp'1845/35 zone.


sp'daily5

Nasdaq, daily

R2K

Trans

Summary

Suffice to say, this was the second consecutive day where the market opened higher, only to see a rather significant reversal.

The only issue now is whether the market can hold above the key sp'1830 threshold. If that fails, there is a further 30/40pts of easy downside for the equity bears.
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a little more later...